The IMF expects Zimbabwe’s GDP growth to slow to 3.5% in 2027 from an estimated 5% in 2026, after the economy expanded by 8.3% in 2025.
The IMF links the expected slowdown mainly to a potentially severe “super” El Niño episode, although the forecast already incorporates government mitigation measures.
The IMF expects inflation to remain below 10% and the current account to stay in surplus, while fiscal pressures and climate risks continue to cloud the outlook.

Zimbabwe’s GDP growth should slow to 3.5% in 2027 from an estimated 5% in 2026, according to an IMF statement published on Thursday, Sept. 17.

The IMF mainly attributes the slowdown to the expected effects of an unusually intense El Niño episode that it described as “super.” “This estimate takes into account the mitigation measures planned by the authorities,” the IMF said.

Zimbabwe faces significant exposure to climate change. Increasingly frequent climate shocks raise the country’s vulnerability and threaten food security, particularly during El Niño episodes. These events can disrupt economic activity, agriculture and other weather-dependent sectors.

Zimbabwean authorities expect unpredictable and unevenly distributed rainfall between October 2026 and March 2027, alongside prolonged dry spells and higher temperatures. These conditions could reduce access to safe drinking water and sanitation services and increase health risks associated with malnutrition, waterborne diseases and heat exposure.

Consequently, the government has started preparing contingency measures. “All ministries and agencies are preparing contingency plans to reduce possible damage to people and the economy,” Save the Children Zimbabwe and the Ministry of Agriculture said in a joint statement.

Meanwhile, the IMF expects inflation to remain below 10% and the current account to remain in surplus. However, the institution sees downside risks if El Niño proves more severe than expected or if authorities implement mitigation measures later than planned or with less effectiveness.

Growth Remains Exposed to Fiscal Risks

The expected slowdown follows strong economic growth in 2025. Zimbabwe’s economy expanded by 8.3% that year, supported by an agricultural recovery and higher global prices for mineral commodities.

However, persistent fiscal risks continue to weaken the recovery. The World Bank classified Zimbabwe’s external and public debt as unsustainable and in critical condition, with debt standing at 45.6% of GDP in 2025. The institution said structural reforms could strengthen long-term growth by improving access to concessional financing and attracting sustainable foreign investment.

For its part, the IMF said Zimbabwe must control expenditure, improve cash-flow planning, strengthen public financial management and clear domestic arrears. The institution said these measures remain essential to restore fiscal credibility and preserve macroeconomic stability.

Lydie Mobio