Uganda’s suspension of defence and military cooperation with Turkey has, for now, stopped at the edge of the €2.7bn ($3.1bn) Malaba-Kampala railway. The military relationship has been frozen; the civilian infrastructure contract has not.

Chief of Defence Forces Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, President Yoweri Museveni’s son and heir apparent, first targeted the railway contract in April, saying he would ask his father to replace Turkish contractor Yapı Merkezi with Chinese companies that he claimed could build the line more cheaply. On June 16, he went further and declared that the contract had been “cancelled”. No formal termination followed: financing continued, preparatory works remained underway, and government planning documents continued to treat the project as active.

The first formal state measure came on September 19, when the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) suspended all defence and military cooperation with Turkey. The UPDF said the measure would remain in force until unspecified “outstanding issues” were resolved, but did not say explicitly that civilian contracts such as the railway were affected.

Kampala and Ankara had also been moving well beyond conventional military cooperation into defence production, procurement and technology transfer. In December 2024, Defence Minister Jacob Oboth urged Turkey to establish a defence-manufacturing hub in Uganda, pitching the country as a regional base for the Turkish defence industry, with the UPDF’s commercial arm, National Enterprise Corporation, as the vehicle.

Lumbuye dispute drives escalation

The confrontation in relation to security cooperation had begun to build in April, when Kainerugaba demanded a $1bn “security dividend” from Turkey, arguing that Uganda had borne the military burden of fighting the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab while Turkish commercial interests benefited from improved stability in Somalia. He deleted the posts the following day and retracted the threats.

The unilateral September suspension of bilateral cooperation by Kampala came a day after supporters of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), chaired by Kainerugaba, demonstrated outside the Turkish Embassy demanding the extradition of Ugandan political commentator, activist and government critic Fred Lumbuye.

Lumbuye, who has lived in Turkey for several years, became widely known for his social media broadcasts and commentary critical of President Museveni and the Ugandan government. He has also been associated with opposition circles, particularly supporters of perennial presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi (aka Bobi Wine).

The UPDF did not explicitly link its decision to Lumbuye or the protest. PLU secretary-general Fadil Twalla, however, warned that Turkish interests could be reviewed if Lumbuye was not returned to Uganda. Daily Monitor reported that the embassy rejected the group’s petition and advised it to pursue the matter through diplomatic channels.

Ugandan authorities say Lumbuye faces 15 criminal cases, while Kainerugaba has also demanded his handover or expulsion and called for Turkish citizens, including embassy staff, to leave Uganda. No formal expulsion order followed.

The pressure contrasted with continued official engagement. The Ugandan president met Turkish Ambassador Mehmet Fatih Ak around the time of the protest and said afterwards that they had discussed issues of mutual interest.

Asuman Kiyingi, a former state minister for foreign affairs from the ruling National Resistance Movement, argued in The Observer on September 21 that Uganda had presented Turkey with several different faces in a single week, highlighting the cost of personalising foreign policy. He noted that First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga had been in Istanbul on September 16-17 for the AFEX 2026 Business Forum and Expo, promoting trade and investment.

Railway financing continues

Meanwhile, the Malaba-Kampala railway project appears not to have been derailed, but there is speculation it could be delayed over the extradition issue.

Uganda signed the $3.1bn EPC/turnkey contract with Yapı Merkezi in October 2024 to build the 272-km Malaba-Kampala Standard Gauge Railway, linking Kampala to Kenya’s rail network and the Port of Mombasa. Museveni formally launched the project the following month.

The project then moved into preliminary works while the government continued arranging the main financing package. Yapı Merkezi received a Limited Notice to Proceed covering €75mn of early works, including construction camps, a sleeper factory, batching plants and engineering work, well before Kainerugaba’s April and June statements.

Financing has continued despite the cancellation claim. The Islamic Development Bank approved €650.75mn for the project in June, while Uganda’s treasury maintained its target of reaching financial close by November. The Ministry of Finance also said in May that about $650mn had been tentatively allocated through the African Development Fund, IntelliNews reported.

Citibank, a subsidiary of Citigroup (NYSE: C), is acting as lead arranger for part of the external financing package, with treasury documents reviewed by The EastAfrican showing it arranging €1.4bn expected from export-credit agencies. Uganda has also approved a €405mn sovereign sukuk to finance part of its domestic contribution, split into a €205mn domestic and regional tranche and a €200mn international segment. Business Daily reported that Uganda had issued the €205mn tranche as trust certificates due in 2036, citing the pricing memorandum.

The wider economic relationship has also been growing. Bilateral trade more than doubled to $160.5mn in 2025 from $75.1mn in 2024, Turkish Ambassador Fatih Ak said in July. Turkish exports to Uganda accounted for $120mn of the 2025 total, while imports from Uganda reached $40.5mn.

Defence ties reach beyond Uganda

The military rupture interrupts a relationship that had been broadening into defence production and technology. Uganda and Turkey signed a defence-industries cooperation agreement in 2016 covering areas including joint production, technology transfer and procurement. A separate Military Training Cooperation Agreement, signed in Ankara on September 13, 2022, broadened cooperation into areas including exchanges, joint exercises, special-forces training, counter-IED work, cyber defence and military intelligence training. Turkey later submitted the agreement to parliament for approval in 2024.

Uganda fits a wider Turkish strategy of coupling arms exports with training and industrial partnerships across Africa. Germany’s Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik said in a September 14 analysis that African markets help sustain Turkish defence production, ease competitive pressures and create external demand for an increasingly export-dependent industry.

Somalia gives that strategy a sharper edge. Turkey operates a major military training facility in Mogadishu and has expanded into equipment supply and maritime security, while Uganda has for years been one of the principal African troop contributors fighting al-Shabaab. Angelo Izama of the Uganda-based Fanaka Kwawote think tank told the Associated Press that Turkey has become a more influential and more desirable security partner for Somalia.

Kainerugaba said in August that Uganda expected to withdraw its remaining troops from Somalia by August 2027, although that timetable has not been publicly adopted as formal Ugandan government policy.