Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has warned that Kenya is nearing a critical food security tipping point, driven by prolonged drought, declining domestic rice production and widening supply gaps.


Kenya produces less than 20 per cent of the rice it consumes and is projected to face a deficit of more than 380,000 metric tonnes by early 2026.


Kagwe said the shortfall is already fuelling price volatility and raising concerns about food access, especially in vulnerable regions.


He noted that rice has become a key staple for urban households as well as communities in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), where erratic rainfall and climate stress have reduced access to traditional staples. However, domestic production remains far below demand, which is estimated at about 750,000 metric tonnes between January and June 2026.


Government projections warn that acute food insecurity in ASAL counties could rise sharply from the current 1.8 million people to 3.5 million if mitigation measures stall.


“Local stocks cannot fill this gap. Meanwhile, acute food insecurity in ASAL counties could surge from 1.8M to 3.5M people if interventions stall,” Kagwe said in a statement on X.


Against this backdrop, the High Court is weighing a legal challenge to the government’s decision to allow time-bound, duty-free rice imports aimed at stabilising supply and cushioning consumers from price spikes.


The ruling, expected on January 29, 2026, is likely to have far-reaching implications for food prices, household budgets and access to basic nutrition.


“The ruling, due on 29 January 2026, will carry real consequences for food prices, household budgets, and the constitutional right to food at a moment when delay risks turning climate stress into a full-blown hunger crisis,” said Kagwe.


The October 2025 AGRA Food Security Monitor shows that food consumption patterns and staple prices are worsening across several African countries, including Kenya.


The report notes that prices of imported rice and maize in Kenya have remained elevated compared with 2024, reflecting broader regional pressures on food access and affordability.


“Kenya faces persistent food insecurity, particularly in the ASALs, where 1.8 million people were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse between July and September 2025, including 179,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4),” the report stated.


Forecasts of below-average short rains between October and December 2025 had already raised fears of worsening food availability, with rising staple prices and local conflicts over resources expected to deepen the crisis.


“By January 2026, an estimated 2.1 million people would face IPC Phase 3 or higher,” the report warned, citing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification scale used to measure the severity of food insecurity.