Colin UdohDec 30, 2025, 02:59 AM ET

CloseItinerant writer. Engineer in a previous incarnation. One time Black Belt. Lover of football, flirter with other sports.

Two interesting storylines will define Nigeria‘s final Africa Cup of Nations group stage contest against Uganda on Tuesday. The first is somewhat superstitious, while the second is more feel-good.

A win against Uganda will result in only the fourth time in their AFCON history that Nigeria advance with a perfect group stage record. However, the odds are never in their favour when they do.

On the feel-good side is a player on the opposing side, who may get as many cheers from the Super Eagles fans as he will get from the gold-coloured side.

Nigerians are very possessive of any person, especially successful sports stars, with even the slightest connection to the country. The country’s Constitution guarantees citizenship to anybody, irrespective of where they are born, with at least one grandparent who is a Nigerian citizen.

Which is why one of the more intriguing storylines to keep an eye on will be whether or not forward Uche Ikpeazu plays a part for the East Africans, who were losing Finalists in 1978.

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The St Johnstone striker, who was born in England to a Nigerian father and Ugandan mother, made his debut for the Cranes in September against Mozambique and has two goals so far, one of those being in the AFCON group game against Tanzania, which helped the Cranes secure a 1-1 draw.

Eric Chelle’s side have already qualified for the round of 16, while Uganda need a win to be certain to make it through as one of the best third-placed finishers, although a draw could still be enough for them depending on results elsewhere.

Whether the Nigeria coach opts to rest some of his players will go a long way to determine if the Cranes have a chance to get the three points they need to advance.

Games between the two sides have historically been close, with Uganda surprisingly holding the edge in their head-to-head meetings with four wins, two losses and two draws.

Here are a few things to look out for ahead of the game.

To rest players or notPhoto by Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Having secured not just a place in the next round, but also group leadership, the Super Eagles are under no pressure to win. No matter the result against Uganda, nothing changes for them.

This eases Chelle’s decision-making regarding what team he wants to send out there. Realistically the coach can swap out his entire starting eleven without any pressure.

However, there is still plenty of reason to not be rash. Switching out the entire starting XI could well impact team rhythm as they prepare for the knockout phase.

And there is historical context. At the 1998 World Cup, Nigeria made wholesale changes to their starting team after qualifying for the knockout stage. They lost 1-3 to Paraguay in the final group game and the broken rhythm meant they ended up getting rinsed 4-1 by Denmark in the knockouts.

Similarly, in the 2019 AFCON, then-coach Gernot Rohr swapped out the majority of his first team for the final group game against Madagascar, and ended up losing 0-2. That loss proved significant, as it meant the Super Eagles finished second, and subsequently had to negotiate the tougher route through old rivals Cameroon in the next round.

While they did eventually scale that hurdle, it was not the route they would have willingly chosen, and Rohr got a few choice words from both the federation and fans for that near mishap. It was a loss that he was never allowed the luxury of forgetting for the rest of his tenure as Nigeria coach.

Chelle has yet to lose, winning seven and drawing three. He would most probably want to keep that unbeaten streak going as long as possible, and that means starting a team that is, at the very least, strong enough not to lose to Uganda.

The Ikpeazu FactorUganda’s Uche Ikpeazu, who has a Nigerian father, will be aiming to deny the Super Eagles a clean run through to the AFCON knockouts… which may not be a bad thing for Nigeria? SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP via Getty Images

As his name suggests, Ikpeazu has Nigerian heritage, being born to a Nigerian father and a Ugandan mother.

Sources tell ESPN that while the forward was open to representing Nigeria in the past, the quality in the Nigerian forward position meant there was little chance of that.

Uganda offered a more realistic prospect of international football, one that Ikpeazu is grateful for, especially after scoring against Tanzania.

“I am absolutely ecstatic to score in the African Cup of Nations,” he said after the game. “I grew up watching this tournament, (watching) my idols like Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure, so to even play in this competition is a privilege. To also score, words can’t describe it.”

Now fully committed to the Cranes, the St Johnstone forward is all in, making clear about where his allegiances lie: “If I was to dedicate this goal, it would go to my grandparents, on my mum’s side.

“Because they’re no longer here and if they knew their grandson scored in a major tournament to help get a point against Tanzania in Morocco, in the Africa Cup of nations, I think they’d be proud.”

The forward also said he was looking forward to playing and winning against his father’s birth country: “Against Nigeria, hopefully we get a win.”

If they do, and Ikpeazu scores, what a story that would be. The best part is, with not much on the line for the Super Eagles, Nigerians will be cheering for him just as hard as the Ugandans will, if not harder.

Will yellow cards force changes?Will Frank Onyeka (right) be rested against Uganda after picking up an injury against Tanzania? Issam Zerrok / Hans Lucas / AFP via Getty Images

Captain Wilfred Ndidi, striker Victor Osimhen, defender Semi Ajayi and goalkeeper Stanley Nwabali all picked up yellow cards in the first two games, and are just one card each away from getting suspended for the next round if they play.

As these cards are wiped off at the end of each round, it’s common sense to keep them on the bench to avoid suspensions that could prove decisive in the next round. For Osimhen, card aside, Chelle will also want to keep him wrapped in cotton wool and save him for games that are of proper consequence.

The forward has been unlucky with injuries when playing against less-fancied opposition, and the last thing the coach, or Nigerians will want to see, is another unnecessary injury from a mistimed tackle in a game that is essentially a dead rubber.

Other areas where the coach might look to make unforced changes could be in central midfield with Ndidi expected to be saved for the next round. Frank Onyeka, who started alongside his captain against Tunisia, took a knock in that game, which led to his substitution.

“I twisted my ankle a little bit, and it was hurting that is why I was substituted,” Onyeka told reporters at the Mixed Zone after the game. While it did not look too serious, the coach may want to give him more time to rest and recover.

Club Brugge‘s Raphael Onyedika, with 17-cap experience under his belt, would be first in line to replace those two, but there could be opportunities for the youngsters Ebenezer Akinsanmiro and Tochukwu Nnadi to see action, while Fisayo Dele-Bashiru could be a replacement for Alex Iwobi.

Chelle could also consider starting Ryan Alebiosu at right back to give Bright Osayi-Samuel a bit of a breather. In the wide areas, Samuel Chukwueze, Moses Simon and Chidera Ejuke all have a shot at playing a part from the beginning.

Upfront, with Osimhen out, Paul Onuachu and Cyriel Dessers could well see action while Francis Uzoho may get another chance in goal to prove to Nigerians that he is a better goalkeeper than he was the last time they saw him and erase the bad memories they hold of him in goal.

Games between Nigeria and Uganda, in recent years, have been close calls decided by the odd goal. All of that considered, even if Chelle were to make wholesale changes, the Super Eagles squad appears deep enough to get through it without problems.

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Udoh: Nigeria’s AFCON rivals should ‘be very afraid’ after win vs. Tunisia

Colin Udoh reacts to Nigeria’s 3-2 win over Tunisia in Group C that sees them qualify for the AFCON knockout stages.

Superstition ain’t the way…

One reason Chelle may want to field a less than strong starting XI could be somewhat superstitious, although it is doubtful that he is even aware. Unless, of course, he reads this.

Since making their debut appearance in 1963, Nigeria have participated at a total of 20 editions. Only three times — 1992, 2006 and 2021 — have they secured a perfect record in group play.

If they knew what followed, it is debatable whether the Super Eagles will want that perfect record again in 2025, seeing as each of the three times that has happened, their campaign has always ended up falling short, and in very devastating fashion.

In 1992, they won both games in a three-team group, went ahead against Ghana in the semifinal, only to see an Abedi Pele-inspired Black Stars claw their way back to break Nigerian hearts in a gut-punching 2-1 win.

In 2006, the Eagles rampaged through the group phase, winning all the three games, But were then turned back via a single goal by Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast, again in the semifinals.

As bad as those results were, they are matched if not exceeded by the events of 2021, the wounds of which are still fresh enough to remember as many of the current squad were in the team that swept through the first round with maximum points. They were riding a wave of optimism under Austin Eguavoen but found themselves on the wrong end of a stunning upset by Tunisia in the round of 16.

By contrast, their three AFCON triumphs have come with blemished group phase results. In 1980, they won two and drew one on the way to their first ever title. In 1994, they won one and drew one, finishing second behind Egypt.

And in 2013, they won just won, and drew two, again finishing behind group winners Burkina Faso, the team they eventually beat in the Final for their third trophy.

From all indications, it looks very much like the omens point to at best a draw if the Super Eagles are to go all the way and win in Morocco. Unless, of course, Chelle sees himself as the “Breaker of Curses”, the man to defy omens, if you will.