By Wallace Mawire
The African Solar Industry Association (AFSIA) has launched the Africa Solar Outlook 2026, its flagship annual report providing the most comprehensive country-by-country assessment of solar energy development across Africa.
The 2026 edition marks a turning point in how solar energy on the continent is understood. By combining verified, project-level data with international solar trade statistics, the report reveals that solar deployment in Africa has been significantly underestimated for years and that the continent is now emerging as one of the most dynamic solar growth regions globally.
“Africa has long been perceived as a marginal solar market,” said John van Zuylen, CEO of AFSIA. “The Africa Solar Outlook 2026 demonstrates that this perception no longer reflects reality. Solar is already far more widespread than previously believed, and Africa is now experiencing the fastest solar growth of any region worldwide.”
Global Solar Momentum Strengthens
Solar energy continued its record-breaking expansion in 2025, with the world adding an estimated 544 to 660 GW of new solar capacity – the largest annual increase ever recorded. Solar and wind together generated more electricity than the increase in global demand during the first half of 2025, while renewables surpassed coal in the global power mix for the first time.
Despite these positive trends, global institutions continue to debate whether renewable energy growth is sufficient to meet 2030 climate targets. What is clear, however, is that solar – supported increasingly by energy storage – is reshaping power systems worldwide.
Africa’s True Solar Footprint Revealed
Since 2019, AFSIA has applied a bottom-up methodology to track solar development across Africa, identifying projects individually across all segments. By the end of 2025, AFSIA had documented more than 42,000 solar projects, representing 296 GWp of cumulative capacity, with 23.4 GWp operational – a 26% increase in operating capacity compared to 2024.
For the first time, the Africa Solar Outlook 2026 supplements this approach with top-down approach also taking into account solar export data from China, compiled by energy think tank Ember. As China accounts for roughly 90% of global solar module exports, this dataset provides a robust proxy for estimating installed capacity that may not yet be formally documented.
The combined analysis produces a substantially revised picture. While 23.4 GWp of operational solar capacity has been uniquely identified in Africa, export data suggest that approximately 63.9 GWp of solar capacity has been exported to (hence likely been installed) across the continent. This indicates that solar may be nearly three times more prevalent in Africa than previously estimated.
As a result, Africa’s share of global solar capacity rises from below 1% to around 2.5–3%, positioning the continent as a far more significant contributor to the global solar market than earlier narratives suggested.
Fastest-Growing Solar Region Worldwide
Beyond absolute capacity figures, the report highlights Africa’s exceptional growth trajectory. In 2025, Africa recorded the highest year-on-year growth rate of any global region, alongside China and the Middle East, and it outpaced both in relative terms. Over the post-COVID period, Africa ranks among the top three fastest-growing solar regions globally.
This momentum has already begun to attract increased attention from international manufacturers, developers, and investors, several of whom have established production and assembly facilities on the continent.
Energy Storage Unlocks Solar’s Full Potential
A defining theme of the Africa Solar Outlook 2026 is the rapid expansion of battery energy storage systems (BESS). Falling costs and technological advances are enabling solar power to move beyond intermittency and provide dispatchable, round-the-clock electricity.
Recent analysis shows that it now costs approximately USD 33/MWh to convert daytime solar into fully dispatchable power using storage. Combined with generation costs, this delivers 24-hour solar electricity at around USD 76/MWh, already competitive with, and often cheaper than, new fossil fuel generation, particularly in countries dependent on imported fuels.
Across Africa, solar-plus-storage projects are now operating in applications previously considered unviable, including industrial baseload supply and utility-scale installations. For commercial and industrial consumers, PV+BESS systems have become cost-competitive with grid electricity and significantly cheaper than diesel generation, even before accounting for the economic impact of grid outages.
“Solar with storage is no longer a future concept,” added van Zuylen. “It is already one of the most competitive and reliable power solutions available to African economies today.”
Measuring Solar Progress Fairly
Recognizing Africa’s diversity, the Africa Solar Outlook 2026 continues to complement absolute capacity rankings with relative performance indicators, including installed capacity per capita and solar’s share of national power generation. This approach highlights countries achieving meaningful progress relative to their population and system size.
In 2025, leading performers by solar capacity per capita include South Africa, Seychelles, Mauritius, Namibia, and Cape Verde, while countries such as Chad, Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, and Botswana recorded the strongest upward movements year-on-year.
A Strategic Reference for Decision-Makers
Covering all 54 African countries, the Africa Solar Outlook 2026 provides detailed insights into installed capacity, electrification rates, policy and regulatory frameworks, electricity tariffs, import duties, and
upcoming solar opportunities. By integrating verified project data with international trade analysis, the report offers the most accurate and realistic picture to date of solar energy in Africa.
About the Africa Solar Outlook
The Africa Solar Outlook is published annually by the African Solar Industry Association (AFSIA) and is widely used by governments, development institutions, investors, utilities, and private-sector stakeholders to inform energy policy and investment decisions across the continent.
The report can be downloaded for free through the AFSIA website on https://www.afsiasolar.com/data-center/outlook-report/