As the United Nations prepares to observe 2026 as the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists, a new scientific study warns that livestock numbers are rising faster than grasslands can sustain across much of Africa, putting nearly half of the continent’s rangelands under severe pressure. Grasslands of 25 out of 49 countries in the continent now face severe overuse, the study, published in the journal Nature Communications, warned.

Pastoralism remains central to food security, culture and rural economies across Africa, with nearly half of the continent’s grasslands are already being grazed beyond their ecological carrying capacity — particularly in northern regions.

Researchers said the imbalance between livestock growth and available pasture threatens long-term sustainability, rural livelihoods and food security, even as large areas of rangeland in Southern Africa remain significantly underused.

Livestock growth outpaces grassland productivity

The research, led by scientists from Henan University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, found that although Africa’s grasslands are producing more biomass than they did two decades ago, this increase has failed to keep pace with the continent’s rapidly expanding livestock population.

By 2020, Africa had more than 529 million tropical livestock units, nearly 1.6 times the number recorded in 2001. Just 10 countries account for close to 70 per cent of the total livestock population.

The seven dominant livestock species — cattle, goats, sheep, donkeys, camels, horses and mules — form the backbone of Africa’s pastoral economy, making the challenge of managing grazing pressure both economically and culturally complex.

According to the study, close to 51 per cent of Africa’s grasslands, largely concentrated in northern Africa, are now grazed beyond safe limits.

A continent divided

The researchers found that despite “serious overexploitation” of grasslands in half the countries on the continent, vast areas of pasture in Southern Africa remain underused, pointing to a stark regional imbalance in how grazing resources are distributed and managed.

Southern Africa emerged as the region with the lowest overall grazing pressure. Around 27 per cent of Africa’s grasslands, predominantly in the south, are classified as underutilised over the long term. Thirteen countries in this region fall into the “extremely low utilisation” category.

Central Africa is also noted for relatively sustainable grassland use, with most countries there showing minimal or no alert levels. Central African Republic, Sierra Leone and Côte d’Ivoire are identified as having particularly low utilisation rates.

Countries surrounding the Sahara Desert and across the Sahel are identified as particularly vulnerable, with even small changes in grazing pressure capable of triggering sharp declines in grassland carrying capacity.

Parts of East Africa are also under severe strain. The study highlights serious overexploitation in areas of Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia.

In Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, this pressure has been compounded by one of the driest October–December rainy seasons on record. Kenya is facing a rapidly escalating drought emergency following the near-total failure of the 2025 short rains, according to the National Drought Management Authority. Pastoral regions have been hit especially hard, with poor pasture regeneration, limited water recharge and falling livestock productivity pushing many households into crisis.

Measuring pressure: a new alert system

To assess long-term stress on grasslands, the researchers developed a new Grassland Carrying Capacity Alert Index (GCCAI), which tracks sustainability trends across the continent.

The index categorises grasslands into five levels: extremely low utilisation, low utilisation, normal use, overexploited and serious overexploitation. By integrating long-term data, it functions as an early-warning system, highlighting ecosystems at risk of degradation.

The authors say the GCCAI can serve as a diagnostic tool to guide pastoral management and land-use policy across Africa.

Climate change as a threat multiplier

While livestock numbers remain the primary driver of grassland pressure, the study finds that climate change is acting as a powerful “threat multiplier”.

Researchers observed sharp year-to-year swings in grassland carrying capacity during periods of extreme weather, with major declines recorded in 2002, 2015 and 2019 following floods, droughts and cyclones. Countries south of the Sahara showed the highest variability, making their grasslands especially vulnerable to climate extremes.

The study notes that wetter conditions can temporarily ease pressure on grasslands, but intensifying drought sharply worsens overgrazing. Climate change, the authors argue, is degrading the very resource base on which expanding livestock populations depend.

Rethinking pastoral management

The challenges facing Africa’s grasslands are not insurmountable, the study concludes, but addressing them will require coordinated, continent-wide action.

The researchers suggest that better regional cooperation — including shifting some livestock development towards Southern Africa’s underused pastures while reducing overstocking in the north — could help rebalance pressure.

At local and national levels, the report outlines practical strategies such as controlled and rotational grazing to limit ecological damage from seasonal herd movements. However, it cautions against one-size-fits-all approaches. Drawing on evidence from South Africa, the study notes that rotational grazing does not always outperform continuous grazing, underscoring the need for region-specific solutions.

The authors also advocate a shift towards higher-value livestock products, rather than simply increasing animal numbers. They warn, however, that reducing herd sizes directly affects pastoral livelihoods, making it essential to balance ecological sustainability with economic survival.

In regions facing the most severe overexploitation, the strategic use of external feed sources could help relieve pressure on natural grasslands, allowing ecosystems time to recover.

A call for better data

Finally, the study calls for a major improvement in data collection. Current assessments, it argues, are limited by coarse national-level livestock statistics.

Achieving sustainable grassland management will require high-resolution, location-specific data on livestock concentrations and the ability to distinguish between palatable and non-edible grass species — a distinction critical for effective local decision-making.

With the United Nations declaring 2026 as the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists, the researchers say their findings provide a timely framework to identify at-risk regions, guide policy interventions and safeguard Africa’s grasslands — and the millions of people whose lives depend on them.