{"id":12435,"date":"2026-01-09T03:53:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T03:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/12435\/"},"modified":"2026-01-09T03:53:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T03:53:31","slug":"africa-cup-of-nations-2025-predictions-opta-supercomputer-update-ahead-of-quarter-finals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/12435\/","title":{"rendered":"Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Predictions: Opta Supercomputer Update Ahead of Quarter-Finals"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re down to the
\nfinal eight at AFCON
\n2025<\/a>, so it\u2019s time we checked in again with the Opta
\nsupercomputer to see the latest predictor
\nnumbers.<\/p>\n

It has been a fascinating Africa Cup of Nations, with another
\nthree rounds still to go.<\/p>\n

The only slightly disappointing aspect for the neutral is that
\nthere hasn\u2019t been much in the way of upsets, but that does mean we
\nare in for a star-studded quarter-final stage.<\/p>\n

Hosts Morocco and the current holders, C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, remain,
\nwith the quarter-final lineup featuring many of the best teams in
\nAfrica.<\/p>\n

The
\nOpta supercomputer\u2019s pre-tournament predictions<\/a> have held up
\nwell, with eight of the nine most-fancied countries still standing.
\nOnly Tunisia (sixth favourites) have been eliminated, and that was
\nat the hands of Mali (eighth favourites) in the last 16 on
\npenalties.<\/p>\n

So, ahead of the last eight at AFCON 2025, we wanted to check in
\nagain with the supercomputer to see the latest predictor
\nnumbers.<\/p>\n

Who Will
\nWin AFCON 2025?<\/p>\n

Hosts Morocco remain the favourites, lifting
\ntheir first AFCON since 1976 in 23.3% of the supercomputer\u2019s
\nsimulations.<\/p>\n

Walid Regragui\u2019s side are still unbeaten at their home
\ntournament (W3 D1) and overcame Tanzania 1-0 in the last 16 thanks
\nto a goal from Real Madrid\u2019s Brahim
\nD\u00edaz<\/a>, who is this edition\u2019s top scorer (four goals).<\/p>\n

Their defensive solidity has been key, conceding just once \u2013 a
\npenalty against Mali \u2013 while their 18 shots faced is comfortably
\nthe fewest of any team in the tournament, at least nine fewer than
\nanyone else.<\/p>\n

\"Morocco<\/p>\n

Senegal are second favourites to win AFCON 2025
\n(16.6%), having been third behind Egypt in our pre-tournament
\npredictions.<\/p>\n

The Lions of Teranga have also won three and drawn one in
\nMorocco, most recently beating Sudan 3-1 in the round of 16. Only
\nNigeria (12) have scored more goals than Senegal (10) at the
\ntournament, with a Pape
\nGueye<\/a> brace helping them advance in the last round.<\/p>\n

Algeria, like Morocco, have built their
\ncampaign on a solid defence. They have also conceded just one goal,
\nand they overcame a tough last-16 tie with DR Congo 1-0 thanks to a
\nbrilliant Adil Boulbina strike in the last minute of extra-time
\nproving the difference.<\/p>\n

Vladimir Petkovic\u2019s side are third favourites to win the whole
\nthing with the supercomputer, lifting the trophy in 13.9% of
\nsims.<\/p>\n

Arguably the most impressive team have been
\nNigeria, especially in their 4-0 dismantling of
\nMozambique in the round of 16.<\/p>\n

The Super Eagles are the top scorers at the tournament (12
\ngoals). They have never scored more goals in a single edition of
\nthe competition (also scored 12 in 2000), and in Ademola
\nLookman<\/a>, Akor
\nAdams<\/a> and Victor
\nOsimhen<\/a>, they have an attack the envy of all.<\/p>\n

All four of Nigeria\u2019s goals against Mozambique were both scored
\nand assisted by two of those players; Lookman\u2019s four assists in
\ntotal is the most at the tournament, and his country now have a 12%
\nchance of winning this edition of AFCON, according to the
\nsupercomputer, up from 7.3% before the tournament.<\/p>\n

\"Nigeria<\/p>\n

Egypt have not been as convincing as many
\nexpected but are in the quarters nonetheless. The Pharaohs came
\nthrough the group stage after a late Mohamed
\nSalah<\/a> winner against Zimbabwe, having overcome South Africa 1-0
\ndespite having 10 men for half the game. They were also
\nsurprisingly taken to extra-time by Benin in the last 16 but
\neventually ran out 3-1 victors in Agadir.<\/p>\n

Egypt started the tournament as second favourites (12.4%), and
\nwhile their percentage chances haven\u2019t dropped much (now 11.8%),
\nthat only makes them fifth favourites with the supercomputer.<\/p>\n

\"AFCON<\/p>\n

C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire also have plenty of talent at
\ntheir disposal, which was on show in their 3-0 win over Burkina
\nFaso in the last 16. Goals from young prospects Amad
\nDiallo<\/a>, Yan
\nDiomande<\/a> and Bazoumana
\nTour\u00e9<\/a>\u00a0saw them through, and like Nigeria, Emerse Fa\u00e9\u2019s men
\nwill hope their impressive attack can take them even further.<\/p>\n

In addition, captain Franck Kessi\u00e9 has been the most creative
\nplayer in open play in Morocco, creating more chances (11) than
\nanyone else. He led C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire to retain their title in 10.7% of
\nthe latest sims.<\/p>\n

Cameroon (ninth) were the only remaining team
\nwho didn\u2019t feature in the top eight favourites at the start of the
\ntournament, but they\u2019re up to seventh now ahead of their
\nquarter-final against hosts Morocco.<\/p>\n

Bryan
\nMbeumo<\/a> is yet to score from six shots at AFCON 2025, with
\n
\nChristian Kofane<\/a> (two goals) \u2013
\nwho we earmarked as one to watch before the tournament<\/a> \u2013 the
\nonly Cameroon player to have found the net more than once. They won
\nthe whole thing in 6.5% of simulations.<\/p>\n

The outsiders are now Mali, possibly because
\nthey have reached the last eight without actually winning a game.
\nThey drew all three of their group matches and needed a penalty
\nshootout to get past Tunisia in the last 16. They also face an
\nin-form Senegal in the quarters.<\/p>\n


\nLassine Sinayoko<\/a>\u2019s injury-time equaliser against Tunisia kept
\nthem in the competition, and he may need to add to his three goals
\nin the tournament if Mali are to make it any further. They went all
\nthe way in 5.2% of sims.<\/p>\n

What does the Opta supercomputer say about each quarter-final
\nspecifically, though? Let\u2019s find out.<\/p>\n

Mali vs
\nSenegal<\/p>\n

This will be just the second ever meeting between Mali and
\nSenegal at the Africa Cup of Nations, with the only previous
\nencounter (a 1-1 draw) coming in the 2004 group stage.<\/p>\n

While Mali have struggled to win games at this AFCON, they are
\nalso hard to beat. Since the 2021 edition, Mali have lost just one
\nmatch at the AFCON (W4 D8), though only Senegal (W10 D5 L0) have
\nlost fewer games at the tournament in that time.<\/p>\n

The supercomputer makes Senegal favourites to win in 90 minutes,
\ndoing so in 51.2% of simulations, while Mali won in 25.3%. The game
\nwent to extra-time in 23.5%, with Senegal given an overall 63.2%
\nchance of progressing.<\/p>\n

\"Mali
\nCameroon
\nvs Morocco<\/p>\n

Cameroon are unbeaten against Morocco at the Africa Cup of
\nNations (W2 D1), though this will be their first meeting in the
\ncompetition since a 1-0 victory in the 1992 group stage.<\/p>\n

Morocco have only played more matches against Tunisia without
\nwinning at the AFCON (P4 D2 L2) than their three against Cameroon.
\nThe only previous game between these two nations in the knockout
\nstages was in the 1988 semi-finals, with Cameroon winning 1-0.<\/p>\n

However, the hosts are the favourites to win inside 90 minutes
\n(44.7%) here, though Cameroon also have a decent chance of victory
\nin normal time (30.0%). The game went to extra-time in more than a
\nquarter of sims (25.3%), with Morocco handed a 66.2% chance of
\nheading through to the semis overall, the highest percentage of any
\nteam at the competition.<\/p>\n

\"Cameroon
\nAlgeria
\nvs Nigeria<\/p>\n

These two nations meet for the 10th time at the Africa Cup of
\nNations. Algeria have the edge (four wins to three) across their
\nprevious nine games (D2), including winning their most recent clash
\n2-1 in the 2019 semi-finals.<\/p>\n

Algeria have only progressed from two of their previous six
\nAFCON quarter-finals, though those came in their last three such
\ngames, eliminating C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire both in 2010 (3-2) and 2019 (won
\n4-3 on penalties, after a 1-1 draw).<\/p>\n

Algeria are marginal favourites to advance here (51.3%), but
\nit\u2019s almost a toss of a coin. They won inside 90 minutes in 38.5%
\nof sims, compared to Nigeria\u2019s 34.5%, with the game going to
\nextra-time in the remaining 27.0%.<\/p>\n

\"Algeria
\nEgypt vs
\nC\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire<\/p>\n

This will be the 12th meeting at the Africa Cup of Nations
\nbetween Egypt and C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, the most played fixture in the
\nhistory of the competition. The Pharaohs only lost one of their
\nprevious 11 meetings (W7 D3).<\/p>\n

Egypt have progressed from all five knockout matches (incl.
\nthird-place play-off) against C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire at the AFCON (W2 D3),
\nwith three of their wins coming via penalty shootouts, including
\nthe most recent in a January 2022 round-of-16 tie (0-0, won 5-4 on
\npenalties).<\/p>\n

They went to extra-time again in 27.1% of these simulations,
\nwith Egypt winning inside 90 minutes in 38.1% and C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire in
\n34.7%. Egypt have an overall 50.6% likelihood of making the semis,
\nso also another one almost too close to call.<\/p>\n

\"Egypt<\/p>\n

\"AFCON<\/a><\/p>\n

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