New research on Tanzania\u2019s political future has revealed that the country will never be the same following the controversial October 29 election, which resulted in deaths and destruction of property.<\/p>\n
\nPublished in the Journal of Democracy by Johns Hopkins University Press on January 1, 2026, the study by scholar Dan Paget, titled \u201cTanzania Will Never Be the Same\u201d, argues that the political turbulence sparked by demands for reform may persist, as the government brutally suppressed the real issues raised by protesters.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cThe question now is whether, in the wake of the crackdown, the movement that had begun to reemerge after the election can coalesce and become a sustained force in Tanzanian politics. The risk of harsh repression could be severe enough to break any movement. But there are reasons to believe that this one will live on in some form,\u201d the findings note.<\/p>\n
\nTriggered by alleged electoral manipulation, protests erupted on October 29 in several neighbourhoods of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania\u2019s commercial capital, as voting began. They quickly spread to Mwanza, Mbeya, Arusha, Geita, Dodoma, and other towns.<\/p>\n
\nIn the post-election turmoil, the internet was shut down for almost a week, and in some areas, daily life ground to a halt, household essentials ran out, streets became unsafe, and freight transport was disrupted.<\/p>\n
\nThe research explains that the suppression of protests has exacted a heavy toll on citizens and the economy.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cMeanwhile, the fundamental issues that drove the protests remain. It is no coincidence that this re-emergent movement in Tanzania has sister movements across East Africa, most notably in Kenya. Like its neighbours, Tanzania faces a cocktail of challenges\u2014social, demographic, and economic\u2014that make it ripe for protest\u2026\u201d the study observes.<\/p>\n
\nThe research stressed that developments in other East African countries will shape how Tanzanians respond to their leaders. A dire economic situation and a growing youth population are expected to fuel further protests whenever dissatisfaction arises.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cMore than half of all citizens are under eighteen years old, and many of these young people are desperately poor. The overwhelming majority (72 per cent) of Tanzanians work in informal jobs, and despite strong economic growth (averaging 5.5 per cent over ten years), poverty has endured and perhaps increased since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, while living standards have plateaued,\u201d the findings note.<\/p>\n
\nPaget elaborated that Tanzania\u2019s ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has a long history of using authoritarian tactics to tilt the electoral playing field, from suspending regime-critical newspapers to banning opposition rallies.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cYet in 2025, under Hassan, the CCM government crossed autocratic thresholds it had not transgressed in decades. Perhaps most troubling, it kept both of Hassan\u2019s principal opponents off the presidential ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nHe added that the damage to the regime\u2019s legitimacy caused by the protests is overshadowed by the reputational self-harm inflicted through its violent response.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cFrom now on, as Tanzanians pass CCM branch offices and party flags in their neighbourhoods, their eyes will be on the bullet holes and empty chairs that serve as monuments to the deadly crackdown\u2014living contradictions of CCM\u2019s claims of popularity and benevolence,\u201d the research notes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New research on Tanzania\u2019s political future has revealed that the country will never be the same following the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13960,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[55],"tags":[9417,8419,9415,9413,9414,84,3956,9416,471,468,9412,152,9418],"class_list":{"0":"post-13959","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tanzania","8":"tag-ccm-crackdown","9":"tag-chama-cha-mapinduzi","10":"tag-dan-paget","11":"tag-east-africa-politics","12":"tag-election-protests","13":"tag-headlines","14":"tag-internet-shutdown","15":"tag-journal-of-democracy","16":"tag-president-samia-suluhu-hassan","17":"tag-regional","18":"tag-study-warns-of-lasting-turbulence-in-tanzania-following-october-29-election","19":"tag-tanzania","20":"tag-youth-unrest"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13959\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}