{"id":147,"date":"2026-01-03T11:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-03T11:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/147\/"},"modified":"2026-01-03T11:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-01-03T11:40:06","slug":"lessons-for-africa-from-rising-discontent-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/147\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons for Africa from Rising Discontent in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

By:\u00a0 Collins Nweke Inspired by a \u00a0live interview on The World Now at Television Continental, this opinion editorial looks at the inevitability of Africa learning\u00a0 from Iran that economic pain without political inclusion is not a sustainable formula. As Africa\u2019s economic powerhouse, the challeng…<\/p>\n

By:\u00a0 Collins Nweke<\/p>\n

Inspired by a \u00a0live interview on The World Now<\/a> at Television Continental, this opinion editorial looks at the inevitability of Africa learning\u00a0 from Iran that economic pain without political inclusion is not a sustainable formula. As Africa\u2019s economic powerhouse, the challenge for Nigeria is not just to grow the economy. It is to ensure every Nigerian can feel that growth in their household.<\/p>\n

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For days, dramatic protests have been sweeping \u00a0Iran. The trigger is deepening economic hardship. The protests are a stark reminder that economic distress does not stay in the economic box. It quickly becomes political, social, and ultimately destabilising. While Iran\u2019s context is distinct, African nations, and Nigeria in particular, would be unwise to view recent events as a problem far from the beds of the Abuja elites because they are \u201chappening over there.\u201d<\/p>\n

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They are happening in every market stall, at every unemployed youth\u2019s doorstep, at every threat real or imagined felt by tax reform, and in every government budget debate across the continent.<\/p>\n

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Economic Pain Is Political Pain<\/p>\n

In Iran, protests began with traders in the Grand Bazaar. It did not begin with opposition parties or activists. The same dynamic plays out across Africa, where informal economies form the backbone of daily life.<\/p>\n

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In Nigeria, inflation, though gradually easing, remains a pressing issue. The Central Bank forecasts inflation averaging nearly 13 % in 2026, following a year when prices dipped from multi-decade highs to about 14.45 % in late 2025 after sustained reforms.\u00a0 While this represents progress, prices are still painfully high for many households.<\/p>\n

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Compounding the picture, Nigeria\u2019s real GDP growth hovered near 4 % in 2025, driven by both non-oil activity and stronger oil output.\u00a0 Yet crucially, economic growth is not yet translating into broad improvements in living standards, with poverty and inequality remaining entrenched. According to the World Bank, around 60 % of Nigerians, roughly 129 million people, still live below the national poverty line.<\/p>\n

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These figures matter because they illuminate a critical truth: aggregate growth doesn\u2019t automatically reduce hardship. This is more so when food, transport, housing, and energy costs outpace wage and income gains.<\/p>\n

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Nigeria\u2019s Informal Sector: The Canary in the Mine<\/p>\n

Nigeria\u2019s informal economy, including market traders, bus conductors, mobile shoemakers, and Bol\u00e9 rooster, employs a large majority of working citizens. When inflation and exchange-rate volatility raise the cost of staples and inputs, the informal sector feels it first.<\/p>\n

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One evocative Nigerian measure of inflation is the \u201cJollof Index,\u201d which tracks the cost of ingredients used to prepare a common pot of Jollof rice, a cultural staple. As of mid-2025, the average cost of preparing a single pot had soared by over 150 % compared to 2023, consuming a large share of low-income budgets.\u00a0 This is economic pain that is immediately lived. It is not abstract, not distant. Such lived experiences are precisely the catalysts of social unrest.<\/p>\n

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Reform Without Trust Is Fragile<\/p>\n

Nigeria\u2019s bold reform; including subsidy removal, exchange-rate unification, and tax restructuring<\/a>; reflect a commendable effort to stabilise and modernise the economy. The government\u2019s 2026 budget projects a deficit of about 4.3 % of GDP while targeting continued growth and currency stability.\u00a0Yet reform that sharpens prices without visible social buffers can leave large segments of the population feeling like they are paying the price for policies that benefit only elites. In 2024, Nigeria witnessed significant labour action demanding better wages and protection against cost-of-living pressures.<\/p>\n

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This reinforces a broader lesson: economic reform requires social protection. Removing subsidies and floating currencies may be technically sound. But without social safety nets and credible public engagement, reform risks breeding discontent.<\/p>\n

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Institutions Matter but \u00a0Trust Matters More<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s leadership has attempted to frame protests as external interference. That may very well be the case. But across societies, citizens trust lived experience more than political rhetoric. In Nigeria, public frustration over rising prices, unemployment, and insecurity has repeatedly manifested in industrial actions and public demonstrations.<\/p>\n

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The International Monetary Fund notes that Nigeria\u2019s GDP per capita recently declined. This is \u00a0an important signal that average incomes aren\u2019t keeping pace with population growth.\u00a0 Moreover, governance and accountability deficits can intensify economic frustration into political fissures. Africans can learn from Iran that stability enforced by force or denial is brittle. Stability built on trust and inclusive growth endures.<\/p>\n

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Demography and Destiny<\/p>\n

Both Iran and Nigeria have youthful populations. Nigeria\u2019s youth bulge, which is a potential demographic dividend, can rapidly turn into a political accelerant if job creation and economic inclusion lag behind expectations.<\/p>\n

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Here again, Nigeria must act with urgency: job-creating reforms, investment in skills and infrastructure, and policies that bridge not just economic reform but opportunity creation.<\/p>\n

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A Pan-African Clarion Call<\/p>\n

The Iranian crisis is not a distant story. It is a warning that echoes across African capitals:<\/p>\n

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Economic hardship becomes political upheaval when expectations outstrip delivery.
\nInformal economies are early warning systems. Ignoring them is dangerous.
\nReform without cushioning the vulnerable fuels unrest rather than resilience.
\nDemocracy and social contract legitimacy are as vital as macroeconomic stability.<\/p>\n

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For Nigeria and Africa at large, the choice is clear but demanding: advance inclusive, people-centred reforms that deliver not just stability on paper, but dignity in daily life. Because when even \u201cAgege Bread\u201d becomes unaffordable while Tejiosho and Balogun markets are empty, discontent will find a voice, \u00a0no matter where you govern.<\/p>\n

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\u201cAfrica must learn from Iran that economic pain without political inclusion is not a sustainable formula. Nigeria\u2019s challenge is not just to grow the economy \u2014 it is to ensure every Nigerian can feel that growth in their household.\u201d<\/p>\n

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