\n\t\tParty sliding below30% in metros, likely to do well in rural areas, surveys show.\n\t<\/p>\n
Deputy President Paul Mashatile\u2019s confident prediction that the ANC will \u201cinevitably\u201d win the 4 November local government elections was less a sober assessment than a rallying cry.<\/p>\n
Addressing supporters at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane during Workers\u2019 Day celebrations, Mashatile urged members to campaign with conviction, insisting that victory was assured.<\/p>\n
Analyst warns of declining support <\/p>\n
But political analysts say his optimism masks a harsher reality- the ANC\u2019s support is dropping, coalitions are becoming the norm, and the party\u2019s dominance of decades past is unlikely to return.<\/p>\n
Political analyst Theo Neethling said, as expected from politicians, Mashatile set expectations high and presented the ANC\u2019s prospects in an optimistic light.<\/p>\n
\u201cNevertheless, current trends suggest the ANC is likely to perform even worse than in the recent national general election,\u201d Neethling said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is important to emphasise, however, that the ANC\u2019s support remains unevenly distributed geographically.\u201d<\/p>\n
The party is likely to perform relatively better in rural areas, where historical loyalties and organisational networks remain more entrenched.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn urban centres \u2013 and particularly in the major metros where voters tend to be more critical and demanding \u2013 it appears almost inevitable that the ANC will lose even more of its dominance, or majority, and be compelled to share power with other parties.\u201d<\/p>\n
Coalition politics expected to dominate outcomes<\/p>\n
Neethling said there is a strong likelihood that coalition politics would dominate the outcome of this year\u2019s elections, with significant variation in performance across provinces and municipalities.<\/p>\n
South Africa has already reached a point where coalitions have become a defining feature of national and local politics, and all indications are that this trend will continue, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn this context, a return to the ANC\u2019s dominant position of two to three decades ago appears increasingly unlikely \u2013 if not simply wishful thinking,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Survey suggests ANC support could fall further <\/p>\n
Political analyst Prof Andr\u00e9 Duvenhage said that when looking at all the surveys undertaken and also taking a look at the political environmental analysis, it was absolutely clear that the ANC\u2019s support was going down.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd in some surveys, it\u2019s even going below 30%, so I have no doubt that we are in a phase where the ANC may lose support. I think of about 70 hung councils we had after 2021,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis may probably double or at least increase largely when it comes to the 2026 election. So, I am not seeing any result in this regard that the ANC can increase.\u201d<\/p>\n
Duvenhage said the party in its current state may not win the elections, adding that maybe it might do well in the rural areas, but not in the urban areas.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo, I think Paul Mashatile is sitting across from us, as he is missing out on the reality. I have no doubt that he is going to lose out on this process,\u201d Duvenhage said.<\/p>\n
\u201cLimpopo, the rural areas of Limpopo, the rural areas of eastern KZN will go uMkhonto weSizwe [MK] party\u2019s way and Inkatha Freedom Party\u2019s way.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m not seeing any strong support for ANC. So, my estimate is 13 to 35%.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe ANC does not have a lot of time; it needs to do a huge run to change itself. There\u2019s no chance of it reaching a 50% plus support on a national basis. That is not to say it can\u2019t win certain local structures out of the 257, but definitely not as a majority support.\u201d<\/p>\n
Morale boosting versus electoral reality <\/p>\n
John Molepo, an associate professor of Public Affairs at Tshwane University of Technology, said Mashatile is just trying to boost morale and confidence among the electorate and the volunteers.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut the polls and many patterns have shown that the ANC is declining,\u201d said Molepo.<\/p>\n
\u201cLook at how the majority of its members in Limpopo have now joined ActionSA, MK party and EFF.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt tells you that the party might not get what it is used to.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut in Limpopo, the ANC will still win, and we are going to see the new incoming political parties taking a few seats in councils. When looking at the metros, we are likely to see a coalition.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, he said if the ANC wants to do well, it might be careful about its candidates and address corruption because that was vital in local government elections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Party sliding below30% in metros, likely to do well in rural areas, surveys show. Deputy President Paul Mashatile\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":218314,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[4484,4332,10080,18772,131],"class_list":{"0":"post-218313","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-south-africa","8":"tag-african-national-congress-anc","9":"tag-anc","10":"tag-local-elections","11":"tag-paul-mashatile","12":"tag-south-africa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@africa\/116516314395854448","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=218313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218313\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/218314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=218313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=218313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=218313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}