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Security analyst and Head of Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, Kabir Adamu, has said the recent United States airstrikes targeting terrorist enclaves in Nigeria failed to achieve their intended objectives, despite the deployment of high-cost military hardware.<\/p>\n
Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Tuesday, Adamu said, \u201cIn simple terms, no. The fact that attacks have been ongoing after the military airstrikes simply says that the intended results are yet to be achieved.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said there was no credible evidence to show that the strikes significantly degraded terrorist capabilities. \u201cTill date, pictures haven\u2019t been matched of corpses of those killed, neither have we seen pictures of destroyed camps, equipment they use in fighting, their gun trucks or weapons. That tells me that perhaps the intended outcome was never achieved,\u201dhe stated.<\/p>\n
Adamu also raised concerns over reports that four out of the 16 Tomahawk missiles deployed during the Christmas Day operation failed to detonate, describing it as both a financial and operational failure. \u201cFour of the 16 warheads never exploded, and we are talking about warheads that cost about two million US dollars per head. So roughly eight million US dollars was wasted,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Questioning the suitability of the weapon system used, Adamu argued that Tomahawk missiles were inappropriate for Nigeria\u2019s security environment. \u201cThe general consensus is that it couldn\u2019t and shouldn\u2019t have been the appropriate weaponry to use, given the nature of the threat elements we have in Nigeria \u2014 asymmetric warfare elements infused within law-abiding citizens. Ground troops and other forms of weaponry would have been more effective,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
He noted that the missiles were launched from a US destroyer in the Gulf of Guinea, covering long distances that could have compromised intelligence accuracy. \u201cThe most conservative distance they covered would be about one thousand kilometres. Intelligence is not static, and the possibility exists that the intelligence changed from the time the missile was launched to when it hit the target,\u201d Adamu said.<\/p>\n
According to him, several factors could have contributed to the unexploded warheads. \u201cTechnical faults, weather conditions, wrong mapping and several other components could have interfered to cause the unexploded ordnance,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
On intelligence sharing, Adamu said available information suggests the US relied heavily on Nigerian intelligence. \u201cOpen information indicates that the intelligence was shared by Nigeria to the US. The intelligence capability of the United States in this part of the world is really basic, and for several reasons it is not as strong as it used to be, so it relied on Nigerian intelligence,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He questioned the decision to target the Lakurawa group, describing it as a low-priority threat. \u201cIf you are ranking terrorist groups in Nigeria, the Lakurawas occupy the lowest echelons. They are nowhere within the top ten categories of threat elements in terms of fatalities,\u201d Adamu stated.<\/p>\n
According to him, more dangerous groups should have been prioritised. \u201cIf it had been ISWAP, Jama\u2019atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda\u2019awati wal-Jihad, Ansaru or Boko Haram, one would have said these were more important and crucial terror groups. But the Lakurawas are somewhere way down,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Adamu argued that the operation largely served domestic political objectives in the United States. \u201cIn the case of the US, they achieved a domestic objective. President Trump was under pressure, at least from Congress,\u201d he said, noting that the timing and location of the strike were symbolic. \u201cIt is instructive that the attack occurred on the 25th of December, Christmas Day, and that it targeted Sokoto State, which is the symbolic seat of the Islamic Caliphate in Nigeria. It was symbolic.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added that Nigeria also benefited diplomatically. \u201cFor the Nigerian state, they succeeded in de-escalating the pressure they were under from the United States by allowing that attack to occur,\u201d Adamu said, while stressing that insecurity persists. \u201cThe threat element remains, and anyone who doubts that should look at the number of attacks that have occurred from December 26 to January 13. Several Nigerians have been killed within this period.\u201d<\/p>\n
Presenting highlights from Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited\u2019s 2025 annual report, Adamu said insecurity remains severe despite some improvements. \u201cFrom January to December 2025, we recorded about 9,000 fatalities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He noted mixed trends towards the end of the year. \u201cIn December 2025, fatalities increased from 451 in November to 498, a 10.42 per cent increase, mainly concentrated in the northwest \u2014 Zamfara and Katsina \u2014 largely driven by banditry,\u201dhe explained.<\/p>\n
However, he said abductions declined sharply month-on-month. \u201cWe recorded 970 abductions in November 2025 and 406 in December 2025, a decrease of about 71.55 per cent,\u201d Adamu said.<\/p>\n
On an annual basis, he noted improvements. \u201cAbductions declined from 9,679 in 2024 to 8,523 in 2025, an 11.94 per cent decrease. Fatalities also declined from 11,692 in 2024 to 10,504 in 2025, a 10.16 per cent reduction,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n
Adamu said the most significant progress began mid-year. \u201cFrom around May 2025, we started seeing a decrease from about 1,300 fatalities per month, ending the year at about 400. This clearly shows an increase in law enforcement capabilities, especially in rural areas,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He attributed the improvement to specific interventions. \u201cLaw enforcement capabilities improved, including the deployment of forest guards. We also saw better intelligence, targeted operations against threat actors, the killing of commanders and destruction of supply chains. There was improved synergy between intelligence and operations,\u201d Adamu said.<\/p>\n
He also highlighted better coordination between federal and state authorities. \u201cThere has been increased engagement between the federal government and state governments, following directives from the President for the Office of the National Security Adviser to work more closely with states,\u201d he noted, while expressing concern about policy inconsistencies. \u201cWhat is happening in Katsina State, such as the release of 70 bandits, is extremely deplorable. Zamfara has said it will not do the same. These variances still exist.\u201d<\/p>\n
In his closing remarks, Adamu described Nigeria\u2019s position as delicate. \u201cThe most significant takeaway is the pressure the Nigerian government is under. It is a no-win situation. Either way, American pressure will continue,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He urged policymakers to focus on dismantling terrorist networks. \u201cWe must suffocate the oxygen terrorists use to operate \u2014 their funding, recruitment, mobility, access to weapons and the shadow economy of illegal mining and kidnapping for ransom. The moment we block these, the insurgency will end,\u201d Adamu concluded.<\/p>\n
Boluwatife Enome\u00a0<\/p>\n
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