{"id":25054,"date":"2026-01-15T13:17:09","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T13:17:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/25054\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T13:17:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T13:17:09","slug":"nigeria-retains-africas-oil-king-title-as-rivals-stumble-wood-mackenzie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/25054\/","title":{"rendered":"Nigeria retains Africa’s oil king title as rivals stumble – Wood Mackenzie"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n <\/a><\/p>\n

\u2026attracts $5.3bn\n<\/p>\n

Nigeria maintained its position as Sub-Saharan Africa\u2019s leading destination for upstream oil and gas investment in 2025, attracting $5.3 billion in capital expenditure despite an 18 percent decline in spending across the broader region, according to data from Wood Mackenzie.\n<\/p>\n

The West African nation secured one of only two final investment decisions (FIDs) recorded across Sub-Saharan Africa last year, marking a dramatic reversal from its historical underperformance in capturing continental energy investments.\n<\/p>\n

The Shell-Sunlink HI Field (OML 144), a shallow-water non-associated gas project, reached FID following Nigeria\u2019s Non-Associated Gas incentives issued in 2024. The decision restores commercial viability to the project and unlocks critical gas feedstock for Nigeria\u2019s liquefied natural gas sector, representing a significant milestone in the country\u2019s effort to monetise its vast gas reserves.\n<\/p>\n

Read also:\u00a0Nigeria\u2019s crude oil output slips to 1.42mbpd in December, misses OPEC quota again<\/a><\/p>\n

Angola, Nigeria\u2019s traditional rival for African energy investments, secured the second position with upstream capital expenditure exceeding $500 million. The nation\u2019s investment was dominated by national oil company projects and major international operators, though it trailed significantly behind Nigeria\u2019s total.\n<\/p>\n

The figures represent a remarkable shift in Nigeria\u2019s competitive position within African energy markets. Between 2015 and 2023, Nigeria captured just 4 percent of sanctioned African FIDs, securing only $5 billion across six of 44 projects continent-wide. Over the past two years, however, the country has attracted 38 percent of African upstream investments, totaling $8 billion across five of eight projects.\n<\/p>\n

Industry analysts attribute this turnaround to decisive policy reforms implemented over the past 24 months. Nigeria now offers among the most competitive deep-water fiscal terms globally and the most attractive gas terms in Africa, according to Wood Mackenzie\u2019s assessment.\n<\/p>\n

The reforms have addressed longstanding concerns from international oil companies about regulatory uncertainty, contract sanctity, and fiscal competitiveness that had deterred investment for nearly a decade. The 2024 Non-Associated Gas incentives specifically targeted projects that had stalled due to economic challenges, providing enhanced returns for developments focused on domestic gas supply.\n<\/p>\n

The broader Sub-Saharan African upstream sector faced headwinds in 2025, with total capital expenditure declining 18 percent year-over-year. The scarcity of FIDs, only two across the entire region, reflects ongoing challenges in competing for global energy capital amid energy transition pressures and attractive opportunities in other basins.<\/p>\n

Read also:\u00a0Oil prices surge on US\u2013Iran tensions as Brent tops Nigeria\u2019s 2026 benchmark\u00a0<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

Congo, Mozambique, Uganda, C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, Ghana, and Gabon rounded out the list of countries with upstream capital expenditure exceeding $500 million. Wood Mackenzie\u2019s data shows Mozambique\u2019s spending focused primarily on LNG developments, while Congo\u2019s investments diversified across multiple project types, including national oil company projects, major operators, and mid-sized independent companies.\n<\/p>\n

The concentration of investment in Nigeria and Angola, which together accounted for the vast majority of regional upstream spending, underscores the importance of stable fiscal regimes and established infrastructure in attracting capital. Both countries benefit from decades of oil and gas development, extensive existing infrastructure, and proximity to key export markets.\n<\/p>\n

Outlook<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to 2026, Wood Mackenzie expects additional FIDs in Nigeria supported by targeted incentives and a stable, investor-focused policy framework. The country\u2019s momentum appears sustainable as reforms continue to mature and demonstrate their effectiveness in attracting international capital.\n<\/p>\n

The Nigerian government\u2019s approach of combining competitive fiscal terms with regulatory stability has created what industry observers describe as a \u201cnew normal\u201d for the country\u2019s oil and gas sector. This stands in sharp contrast to the previous decade, when policy uncertainty and above-ground risks consistently undermined the country\u2019s natural advantages in reserves and infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Read also:\u00a0NUPRC unveils 90-day sprint to revive Nigeria\u2019s oil output, vows regulatory overhaul\u00a0<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

For the broader Sub-Saharan African region, Nigeria\u2019s success offers both a template and a competitive challenge. Other nations seeking to attract upstream investment will need to match or exceed Nigeria\u2019s fiscal competitiveness while addressing their own above-ground risks and infrastructure constraints.\n<\/p>\n

The regional decline in overall spending, however, reflects broader structural challenges facing African upstream sectors. As global energy companies navigate the energy transition and allocate capital to lower-carbon projects, African nations face intensifying competition for a shrinking pool of conventional oil and gas investment.\n<\/p>\n

Nigeria\u2019s ability to capture a growing share of this declining total suggests that in an increasingly competitive environment, policy reforms and fiscal competitiveness matter more than ever in determining which nations secure scarce energy capital.\n<\/p>\n

Oladehinde Oladipo<\/a> <\/p>\n

Dipo Oladehinde is a skilled energy analyst with experience across Nigeria’s energy sector alongside relevant know-how about Nigeria\u2019s macro economy.
\n
\nHe provides a blend of market intelligence, financial analysis, industry insight, micro and macro-level analysis of a wide range of local and international issues as well as informed technical rudiments for policy-making and private directions. <\/p>\n

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