<\/p>\n
President William Ruto’s path to re-election in the next
\nyear\u2019s general election is increasingly being shaped by a familiar Kenyan political
\nreality, the tyranny of numbers. <\/p>\n
\n
\nWhile the President has sought to broaden his support base
\nthrough the UDA-ODM cooperation, emerging voter registration trends suggest Mt
\nKenya vote could be his troubling headache going into the polls.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe latest IEBC voter registration exercise has reinforced
\nMt Kenya’s position as the country’s electoral powerhouse. <\/p>\n
\n
\nKiambu, Nakuru and Nyeri were among the counties that
\nrecorded some of the highest numbers of newly registered voters, alongside
\nNairobi, further strengthening the influence of the larger Mt Kenya voting
\nbloc.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe 10 Mt Kenya counties account for 7.4 million registered
\nvoters according to Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission figures ahead of 2027.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe projections appear to cancel the estimated voting bloc
\nthat comes with Ruto\u2019s new partners \u2013 ODM.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe numbers also expose the limitations of relying solely on
\nODM’s support. <\/p>\n
\n
\nWhile ODM bases remain an important electoral bloc,
\ntogether they account for fewer registered voters than the broader Mt Kenya
\nregion.<\/p>\n
\n
\n\u00a0Even when Kisii and
\nNyamira are added to the bloc, the combined total still falls short of the numbers
\navailable in Central.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe commission projects to register an additional 6.3 million
\nnew voters by next year, pushing the current register from the 22.1 million
\nvoters in 2022 to 28.4 million voters by the time the country goes to elections in 2027.<\/p>\n
\n
\nIn the IEBC\u2019s projections, the agency estimates new voters
\nnumber in Nyeri to be 618,969, Meru (992,317), Kirinyaga (483,219),
\nEmbu (429,629), Tharaka-Nithi (298,070), Kiambu (1,638,580), Murang’a (797,990),
\nLaikipia (338,009), Nyandarua (464,152), and Nakuru (1,355, 652). <\/p>\n
\n
\nSome counties like Nakuru and Kiambu are however cosmopolitan
\nand may not vote in one direction.<\/p>\n
\n
\nRecent study by Infotrak released this month gives Ruto 12
\nper cent of the Central Kenya votes, translating to approximately 889,990 votes
\nbased on the IEBC projections.<\/p>\n
\n
\nWhile the poll gives Ruto an overall win of 32 per cent
\nnationally, it suggests a united opposition will further give more trouble to
\nthe incumbent.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe opposition is quietly assembling a formidable arithmetic
\nthat will see them rally behind one of them against Ruto.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe study gave Kalonzo Musyoka 13 per cent support, Edwin Sifuna (12
\nper cent), the same as Jubilee\u2019s Fred Matiang\u2019i.<\/p>\n
\n
\nGachagua scored\u00a0 four per cent, Babu Owino three per cent, David
\nMaraga two per cent and Martha Karua one per cent.<\/p>\n
\n
\nPolitical analysts argue that this presents a strategic
\ndilemma for Ruto. <\/p>\n
\n
\nHis administration has invested heavily in cultivating ODM
\nsupport following the political cooperation with the Orange party, hoping to
\nsecure votes from Nyanza, Coast and parts of Western region.<\/p>\n
From IEBC\u2019s projections, the 12 counties in Ruto\u2019s Rift
\nValley accounts for 5,181,763 votes.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThey are Bomet (484,482), Elgeyo- Marakwet (274,873),
\nKajiado (595,378), Kericho (550,134), Nandi (522,142), Baringo (361,196), Narok
\n(512,498), Samburu (128,536), Trans Nzoia (512,751), Turkana (306,542), Uasin Gishu
\n(650,464) and West Pokot (282,767).<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe ODM bases, especially the four Luo
\nNyanza counties and six Coastal counties bring a total of 5,299,442 votes. Kisumu has 779,772 votes, Migori (602,763), Siaya (685,751), Homa
\nBay (708,213), Mombasa (824,958), Kwale (421,855), Kilifi (756,444), Tana River
\n(181,329), Lamu (104,680) and Taita Taveta 233,677.<\/p>\n
\n
\nWestern used to be under ODM\u2019s grip but with the disruption brought
\nby Edwin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi, the region now appears more of a battleground
\nbetween the broad-based government and the united opposition.<\/p>\n
\n
\nPolitical commentator Wafula Buke says Ruto will
\nhave no fighting chances in Western if Sifuna is on the presidential ballot.<\/p>\n
\n
\n\u201cIf Edwin Sifuna runs as a presidential candidate in the
\ncoming elections, there will be no place for Ruto in Western,\u201d Buke told the Star in a telephone interview.<\/p>\n
\n
\nBeyond Mt Kenya, the opposition is expected to draw support
\nfrom Ukambani under Kalonzo Musyoka, Kisii courtesy of Matiang\u2019i, and urban
\nvoters in Nairobi where Linda Mwananchi is claiming dominance.<\/p>\n
Kitui with 684,678 votes, Machakos (883,629) and Makueni (616,104)
\nhave a combined projected 2027 voting strength of 2.1 million votes. They form Kalonzo’s political bedrock.<\/p>\n
\n
\nNairobi is estimated to have 3,104, 048 voters by the time
\nof the next elections.<\/p>\n
\n
\n\u00a0If these regions vote
\ncohesively, they could significantly narrow or even erase the numerical
\nadvantage enjoyed by Ruto in 2022.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThis explains why both government and opposition strategists
\ncontinue to invest enormous political capital in Mt Kenya despite extensive
\ncampaigns in other regions. <\/p>\n
\n
\nWinning Nyanza or Western may boost national appeal, but
\nlosing substantial support in Mt Kenya could outweigh those gains.<\/p>\n
\n
\nPolitical analyst Prof. Gitile Naituli told the Star the
\nbroad-based arrangement with ODM carries no numbers as majority of supporters
\nhave joined Edwin Sifuna\u2019s Linda Mwananchi.<\/p>\n
\n
\n\u201cODM team under Oburu is a shell, the supporters moved with
\nSifuna, Orengo and Babu to the Linda Mwanachi,\u201d Naituli told the Star.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe ruling UDA party’s recent loss in the Ol-Kalou by-election has
\nreinforced the belief that Mt Kenya might not be available to Ruto
\nin the next year\u2019s polls.<\/p>\n
\n
\nGachagua has described the Ol Kalou parliamentary
\nby-election as a political contest between Ruto and the
\nKikuyu community.<\/p>\n
\n
\nThe former deputy president said the outcome reflected the region’s growing
\nopposition to Ruto’s re-election bid.<\/p>\n
\n
\nSpeaking during a church service at ACK St Thomas Cathedral in Kerugoya,
\nGachagua said Ruto should expect a similar political verdict in next year’s
\ngeneral election.<\/p>\n
\n
\n“The Ol Kalou contest was not about individual candidates. It was a
\ncontest between President Ruto and the Kikuyu community and the people have
\nspoken. If nothing changes, he should expect the same outcome in 2027,”
\nGachagua said.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
INSTANT ANALYSIS<\/p>\n
\n
\nMt. Kenya enduring numerical strength means it is likely to
\nremain the single most coveted political battleground, with its eventual choice
\npotentially determining whether Ruto secures a second term or faces his
\ntoughest electoral test yet<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"President William Ruto’s path to re-election in the next
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