{"id":414495,"date":"2026-09-07T11:20:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T11:20:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/414495\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T11:20:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T11:20:10","slug":"africa-must-brace-for-a-powerful-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/414495\/","title":{"rendered":"Africa must brace for a powerful El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Dr Henno Havenga.<\/p>\n

Africa could face a season of punishing heat, drought, flooding and disrupted rainfall as an unusually powerful El Ni\u00f1o gathers strength in the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

The latest outlook from the United States\u2019 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that El Ni\u00f1o is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026\/27. It places the probability of an event exceeding the strength of any El Ni\u00f1o recorded since 1950 at 69% between October and December.<\/p>\n

For Africa, however, the threat will not take a single form. Southern Africa is likely to face a heightened risk of drought and extreme heat, while parts of East Africa could experience excessive rainfall and flooding.<\/p>\n

Dr Henno Havenga, senior lecturer in climatology at the North-West University\u2019s (NWU\u2019s) School of Geo- and Spatial Sciences, says the term \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d is widely used but is not a formal scientific classification.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt describes an exceptionally strong El Ni\u00f1o event,\u201d he says. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o develops when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm and the atmospheric circulation above it changes. These changes can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific through what we call teleconnections.\u201d<\/p>\n

The strength of the developing event does not mean that every country or region will experience disaster. El Ni\u00f1o shifts the odds, but it does not dictate the weather from one district to the next.<\/p>\n

\u201cA very strong El Ni\u00f1o does not guarantee extreme conditions everywhere,\u201d says Havenga. \u201cWeather variability still plays a major role. It can, however, increase the likelihood or severity of some of the conditions normally associated with El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n

For much of Southern Africa, those conditions include reduced rainfall, drought and unusually high temperatures. Heat compounds the damage because it increases evaporation and the amount of water required by crops, livestock and people at precisely the time when supplies may be declining.<\/p>\n

The picture is different in parts of East Africa, where El Ni\u00f1o can bring above-normal rainfall. There, the danger may come from flooded settlements, damaged roads and bridges, contaminated water supplies and the displacement of communities.<\/p>\n

Even within the same country, rainfall may arrive too late, fall in the wrong places or come in short, destructive bursts rather than the well-timed and evenly distributed rain needed by crops.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe timing, distribution and intensity of rainfall can either amplify or offset the typical El Ni\u00f1o signal at a local level,\u201d Havenga says.<\/p>\n

A threat to fields, taps and household budgets<\/p>\n

Agriculture is among the most exposed sectors, but the consequences will extend far beyond the farm gate. Poor harvests can reduce food availability, weaken rural incomes and push prices higher.<\/p>\n

International trade may help countries compensate for local crop failures, but imports do not provide complete protection. Countries remain vulnerable to global commodity prices, exchange-rate movements, transport costs and disruptions to supply chains.<\/p>\n

The effects are especially severe for small-scale and subsistence farmers.<\/p>\n

\u201cA commercial producer may have access to insurance, financing, irrigation or alternative markets,\u201d says Havenga. \u201cA small-scale or subsistence farmer may lose both the food needed by the household and the produce normally sold to generate an income.\u201d<\/p>\n

The same drought can therefore become both a food crisis and an income crisis. Communities that depend heavily on local harvests and village markets may be hit long before the full economic impact becomes visible in national statistics.<\/p>\n

Water security is an equally urgent concern. Hot, dry weather increases demand while reducing the water available in rivers, dams and boreholes. Havenga says local governments cannot afford to lose treated water through leaking and poorly maintained infrastructure during such a period.<\/p>\n

\u201cReducing leaks and unnecessary losses from existing water infrastructure is one of the most practical interventions available to us. At the same time, all users should be encouraged to use water sparingly as a general rule.\u201d<\/p>\n

Consequences far beyond agriculture<\/p>\n

An intense El Ni\u00f1o could place health services, energy systems and ecosystems under strain.<\/p>\n

Extreme heat poses a particular danger to outdoor workers, older people, children and those living with chronic illnesses. Drought may affect drinking-water quality, sanitation and nutrition, while floods can contaminate water sources and increase the risk of disease.<\/p>\n

Hydropower-dependent countries could face reduced electricity generation if rainfall declines and reservoir levels fall. At the same time, higher temperatures may drive up demand for cooling.<\/p>\n

Natural systems will not escape the pressure. Drought can reduce vegetation growth, shrink wetlands and rivers, increase the likelihood of wildfires and leave wildlife competing for dwindling supplies of water and food.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe cannot assume that every ecosystem will simply return to its previous state after a severe drought,\u201d Havenga says. \u201cHowever, reducing human pressures, including excessive water abstraction, land degradation and unnecessary habitat disturbance, can improve the ability of ecosystems to withstand and recover from the event.\u201d<\/p>\n

As is often the case during climate-related disasters, poorer communities are likely to be affected first and take the longest to recover. They generally have fewer savings, less secure access to food and water, and fewer options when crops fail, livestock die or prices rise.<\/p>\n

The warning has arrived<\/p>\n

Africa is not powerless in the face of El Ni\u00f1o. Forecasting has improved substantially, and governments can draw on their experience of previous droughts and floods. The danger lies in failing to act before the consequences become unavoidable.<\/p>\n

Havenga says farmers should review their planting plans, cultivar choices, water use, production targets and input expenditure in light of the increased risk. Expanding production on the assumption that good rains will arrive could leave already vulnerable producers dangerously exposed.<\/p>\n

Governments and municipalities should repair water infrastructure, prepare food-security programmes and ensure that disaster-response systems can be activated quickly. Financial assistance, agricultural support and drought-relief mechanisms should be designed before farmers and communities are already in distress.<\/p>\n

\u201cDrought is a slow-onset hazard,\u201d Havenga says. \u201cAt first, we might not feel its effects, but it develops gradually, and that slow progression can catch us off guard.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe advantage we have is that advance warning systems have allowed us to talk about this event since May,\u201d says Havenga. \u201cWe should use that warning to reduce our exposure and prepare for the possibility of a difficult season, rather than waiting until the drought is already established.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a9Higher Education Media Services.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Dr Henno Havenga. Africa could face a season of punishing heat, drought, flooding and disrupted rainfall as an…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":414496,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5],"tags":[63],"class_list":["post-414495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-africa","tag-africa"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@africa\/117229494161372362","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=414495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414495\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/414496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=414495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=414495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=414495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}