Shopify upgraded to Buy at Jefferies on agentic commerce bet Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Jefferies has upgraded Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP) to Buy from Hold and bumped its price target up to $160, pointing to strong early signs for the second quarter, a reworked partner program, and what it thinks is a price increase on the way.
The firm’s 2026 earnings-per-share estimates come in at $0.36 for Q1, $0.37 for Q2, $0.44 for Q3 and $0.61 for Q4, adding up to $1.78 for the full year.
Jefferies has been tracking web traffic to shop.app subdomains and found it lines up closely with GMV, a 94% correlation going back to early 2023.
Even factoring in a steady drop in GMV per visit and typical seasonal softness quarter over quarter, the firm thinks Shopify could beat the Street’s call for 27% GMV growth in Q2.
The firm also likes changes coming to Shopify’s partner commission structure in August, which tie payouts more directly to the value partners actually create on the platform. Jefferies thinks that pushes partners toward landing bigger merchants, sticking around to help them succeed after launch, and paying more attention to things like B2B, POS and Shopify Components, rather than coasting on recurring commissions.
Then there’s pricing. Shopify hasn’t touched its non-Plus pricing since a 33-34% hike in 2023, and Plus pricing has been flat since a 25% increase in 2024. Since then, the company has added a bunch of new features, including its Sidekick AI assistant, and has been eating the cost of running it.
Jefferies figures that with more merchants actually using and getting value out of Sidekick, Shopify is in a good spot to raise prices again. Management has not committed to anything specific, but Jefferies thinks it’s coming. A hike similar to the 2023 move would be small change for any individual merchant, but Jefferies estimates it could add 3-4% to its 2027 revenue numbers, and most of that would flow straight to profit.
On the agentic commerce side, Jefferies stuck with its long-standing view that Shopify is well placed to be the backbone for merchants as AI agents start doing more of the shopping on customers’ behalf. The firm sees this as a modest but steady tailwind for GMV over the next few years.