Quick Read
SanDisk (SNDK) surged 251% in revenue to $5.95B as Seagate (STX) nearly quadrupled free cash flow to $953M, both crediting AI data creation.
Seagate offers durable 47% gross margins with nearline capacity committed through mid-2026, while SanDisk trades at a demanding 60x P/E with NAND pricing risk.
Both stocks have pulled back sharply, with SNDK down 23% and STX off 19% over the past month, pointing to elevated expectations already baked into prices.
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SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) and Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX) just delivered blockbuster March quarter results, and both credit the same force: AI data creation.
SanDisk
One sells NAND flash for high-speed inference. The other sells nearline HDDs that warehouse petabytes cheaply. Comparing them now shows how storage is splitting into two distinct AI supply chains.
Flash Explodes. Spinning Disks Grind Higher.
SanDisk posted $5.95 billion in revenue, a 251% jump, with Datacenter alone surging 645% year over year to $1.467 billion. Gross margin swung to 78.4% from 22.5% a year ago, a move that only makes sense when NAND pricing is genuinely scarce. CEO David Goeckeler called it “a fundamental inflection point” tied to BiCS8 flash and High Bandwidth Flash for AI inference.
Seagate’s numbers look calmer but no less structural. Revenue reached $3.11 billion, up 44.1%, with non-GAAP gross margin hitting 47%. Free cash flow leapt to $953 million from $216 million. Dave Mosley framed the quarter as “a new era of structural growth as AI applications amplify data creation.” The Mozaic HAMR platform is now qualified with five of the world’s largest cloud customers.
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STX Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St. Two Very Different Bets on AI Storage
Lens
SanDisk
Seagate
Core Tech
BiCS8 NAND, High Bandwidth Flash
HAMR Mozaic areal density
Customer Model
Multi-year NBM firm commitments
Build-to-order, capacity spoken for
Balance Sheet
Zero long-term debt
Debt paydown, convert dilution risk
Key Vulnerability
NAND pricing swings, Kioxia reliance
HDD cyclicality, tariff exposure
SanDisk is locking hyperscalers into five New Business Model agreements with firm financial commitments, trying to convert a historically brutal commodity cycle into something that looks like a subscription.
Seagate is doing the opposite in spirit: leaning on decades of areal density expertise to be the cheapest place to park an exabyte. Mosley noted nearline capacity is committed through mid-calendar 2026, which is the sort of visibility HDD investors rarely get.
The Next Test Is Whether Pricing Holds
SanDisk guided Q4 revenue to $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and EPS to $30 to $33, which prices in another leg of NAND tightness. I will watch consumer, which slipped 10% sequentially, and any hint that Kioxia supply dynamics shift.
Seagate’s guide of $3.45 billion revenue and $5 EPS depends on Mozaic ramping cleanly at 4-plus TB per disk. Both stocks have cooled recently, with SNDK down 23.38% over the past month and STX off 18.64%, so expectations are elevated.
Why I Lean Seagate for Durability, SanDisk for Torque
On the data, Seagate looks like the steadier expression of the AI storage story. The 47% gross margin and build-to-order visibility feel structural and durable.
SanDisk offers more upside if NAND stays tight, and the 580% YTD run shows the market agrees, but a 60x P/E leaves less margin for error. For investors focused on AI torque, SanDisk carries more upside tied to NAND pricing, while Seagate offers steadier cash flow visibility.
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