Wooden blocks with the word IPO and virtual stock graph. Initial Public Offering or stock launch concept.
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The SpaceX IPO Blueprint For Buying OpenAI And Anthropic
It’s much harder to predict the future than the past, but you’ve seen me get lucky here over the years, so I plan to continue making wild predictions and getting more than my fair share right.
I was calling the SpaceX IPO on YouTube like this:
Pop, slump.
And here we are.
What next?
Well, take a look at Coinbase and Robinhood, and tell me that isn’t going to happen for SpaceX.
Chart of the Robinhood IPO – and what happened later
Credit: ADVFN
The Coinbase IPO chart and afterwards
Credit: ADVFN
Now, that will make some people sad. They bought the IPO and saw it go way up. Either they got greedy and held, or they forgot to sell the pop and now find themselves underwater.
A wizened trader would tell short-term IPO traders to take the loss. I, however, would say: first, did you want to invest in SpaceX? If the answer is yes, then you can wear it for a few years, and you’ll probably be the smartest fellow on your street.
My position was, and is, to buy the IPO once everyone hates it and has forgotten the hype. Let the lockups expire.
You can see the blueprint in the Coinbase and Robinhood charts.
Now let’s move along – nothing to see here!
While I’ll be dollar-cost averaging into SpaceX if it follows these blueprints, OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s IPOs are back to Plan A: buy the pop and dump the stock somewhere between Day 1 and Day 3, depending on my digestive fortitude.
It seems unlikely that U.S. and U.K. investors won’t be offered shares, as the IPOs will be so spicily valued that the only way to get institutions into them is to have retail hordes howling for stock at the get-go.
So the full blueprint is this: get the OpenAI and/or Anthropic IPO, sell the pop, then wait about a year for the insider lockups to expire before looking to re-enter.
In my mind, they will be trillion-dollar companies, but not global-economy-eating monsters. SpaceX has the whole solar system to go for, and Musk the Merciless to drive it. The AI apex, meanwhile, has no such almost-infinite moat or opportunity to protect it. OpenAI and Anthropic do, however, have a lock on the most vital and expensive software machines ever created, and a way to stay at the peak of the AI iceberg of value.
So while I will definitely DCA into an outsized stake in SpaceX when the hoopla is dead, OpenAI and Anthropic might each justify a singular position.
So I’m looping back. As I wrote here a few weeks ago, we are in a bubble. That bubble can run for several years, and the position is not to stay on the sidelines. The trick is to ride the wave with a plan to get off and count your winnings.
Here is a red-flag signal to set your investment phasers to stun: when amazingly large and spicy IPOs hit the market and you are not invited in as a retail investor, know that the market-bubble jig is about to be up. This is your signal to evaluate your strategy, because someone is ringing that bell – the one people say never gets rung at the top of the market. Wild IPOs reserved for the “special people” are a sign of a bubble about to pop. It is bound to happen.
This is an example of that market-top bell being rung. Many bells are rung at the top of the market, but no one is listening.
Keep your ears open.