The Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) — or SpaceX — share price has been in freefall recently. It could do with one of the company’s rocket landing ‘chopsticks’ to come in and catch it!
Even then, a fair bit of damage has already been done, with the stock hovering around $110. That’s a 51% crash since mid-June.
But as Warren Buffett reminds us: “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”. SpaceX has been public for less than 10 weeks!
It’s very early days, especially for a company aiming to use the Moon as a base to build a human colony on Mars. If ever a stock needs owning for 10 years (or more), it’s this one.
That said, CEO Elon Musk is predicting massive things well before 2036. This week, he said SpaceX will hit $1trn in revenue by 2030, perhaps even 2029.
However, in June, Morgan Stanley ‘only’ forecast about $330bn by 2030. And one broker (Phillip Capital) just rated the stock a Sell while dishing out a $75 price target.
To try and get a better picture then, I asked ChatGPT (free version) where it reckons the SpaceX share price will be by 2030.
Mea culpa
The AI bot gave me different future SpaceX market caps, assuming a stable share count. For reference, the current valuation sits at $1.45trn.
To be fair, ChatGPT didn’t just fence-sit, as it plumped for a base case of around $225 a share by 2030. While that’s 104% above today’s price, it’s roughly where Wall Street analysts expect the stock to trade in just 12 months.
I pointed this out to the bot. Somewhat ridiculously, it then issued a mea culpa and hiked its base case to $350-$400!
Jokes aside, this does highlight the limitations such chatbots still display today when it comes to stocks.
What’s my take?
This week, SpaceX released a strong set of Q2 results. Revenue surged 92% to $7.8bn, well above the $6.8bn anticipated by Wall Street, while an adjusted loss per share of $0.09 was a lot better than expected.
However, AI spending came in significantly higher than forecasts, at $15.8bn. And Starlink subscribers were a bit light, at 12m instead of 12.2m. The stock nosedived almost 14% the day after.
Having listened to the earnings call though, I’m more bullish than I was. Here are some future-looking snippets that I found compelling (notwithstanding Musk’s history of overegging timelines):
Starship’s heatshield problem is basically “solved”, paving the way to full and rapid reusability.
With Starship, SpaceX aims to send 1m tons to orbit per year, up from 2,500 today via Falcon.
Starlink could deliver a majority of the world’s internet within 10 years.
Starlink Mobile is expected to win “quite a few” customers from major wireless network operators.
Starmind AI satellites, incorporating Nvidia hardware, are being deployed next year.
In the present, airlines Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia, and Aer Lingus have signed up for Starlink. And over $6bn in US government/defence contracts were secured in Q2.
Delayed timelines and Starship problems are key risks. But I see the long-term opportunity here as extraordinarily large, so I’ll be building out a position on dips over the next 12-18 months.
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Ben McPoland owns shares in Nvidia.
The post I asked ChatGPT where the SpaceX share price will be by 2030. It said… appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.
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