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Anthropic would need to generate roughly $1.2 trillion in annual revenue within a decade to justify a potential $2 trillion valuation, according to NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran.

That target is roughly 18 times Anthropic’s July revenue run rate of more than $65 billion and 1.7 times the $716.9 billion in sales generated by Amazon.com Inc. last year.

In a blog post published Thursday, Damodaran, known as Wall Street’s “Dean of Valuation,” worked backward from the $2 trillion figure to calculate the growth and profitability Anthropic would need to deliver for that price to make financial sense.

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A May funding round valued Anthropic at $965 billion. Existing investors reportedly believe it could command $2 trillion or more in an initial public offering.

Why Investors Think $2 Trillion Is Possible

Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate has climbed from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than $65 billion by the end of July. The company reportedly projects $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028 revenue.

Polymarket traders think there is a 72% chance that Anthropic has the best AI model by the end of the year. OpenAI is in second with 9%. Remaining at the top is crucial if Anthropic is to generate the extraordinary revenue needed to justify a $2 trillion valuation.

What Anthropic Must Deliver

Damodaran grants generous assumptions: a 30% after-tax operating margin, a 10% cost of capital and 10 years to maturity. Even then, justifying a $2 trillion valuation requires about $1.2 trillion in year-10 revenue, implying $360 billion in after-tax operating income.

If regulation or slower adoption stretches maturity to 15 years, the requirement approaches $2 trillion. Even after hitting its 2028 target, Anthropic would need to grow around 25% a year for another eight years.

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Damodaran pegs the entire current market for AI products and services at roughly $250 billion. If AI remains mainly a productivity tool, that market stays capped, because companies pay for it on top of wages.

The multitrillion-dollar opportunity appears only if AI replaces expensive workers across industries and countries. That shift would likely bring job losses, political resistance and regulation that could slow the very growth the valuation requires.

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Amazon Is Already Exposed

Amazon’s exposure could grow substantially. The company has invested $13 billion in Anthropic and agreed in April to invest up to another $20 billion if the AI startup reaches undisclosed commercial milestones, potentially bringing its total investment to $33 billion.

The expanded partnership also commits Anthropic to spend more than $100 billion on AWS technologies over the next decade and secure up to five gigawatts of capacity using Amazon’s Trainium chips.

Amazon recorded $53.4 billion in second-quarter non-operating pre-tax other income, primarily from its investments in Anthropic, nearly twice its $27.5 billion operating income.

Even if Anthropic ends 2026 with AI’s top-ranked model, it could still fall short of what a $2 trillion valuation demands.

Image: Shutterstock

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