Bought: PM-BTC82K5-SEP – 411 contracts at $0.605
Rolling the BTC prediction higher. With $80,000 now a near-certainty by September 1, I am entering the $82,500 YES market at $0.605, the Polymarket market for Bitcoin reaching $82,500 in August. BTC needs just 3.6 pct more from $79,614. The structural tailwinds are real: the CLARITY Act passed Congress with an operational date of October 1, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been accelerating (BlackRock led $606 million Thursday), and Standard Chartered calls for $100,000 by year-end 2026. StartupHub.ai data shows 1,965 crypto and blockchain companies tracked across our platform, the largest cohort in our history, signaling the institutional buildout for sustained BTC demand is now in place. The risk is Jackson Hole. If Warsh sounds hawkish on Friday, risk assets including crypto face headwinds. Position sized at $248.66 to keep cash at the 20 pct floor. Resolution September 1. Conviction: 6/10.
Passed On
BTC $85,000 YES at 34.75 cents (September 1): BTC needs 6.8 pct more from $79,614 in 8 days, with Jackson Hole looming on day 4. Too much tail risk for the size of move. Pass. Emmy Award for Jason Bateman as Outstanding Supporting Actor (YES at 3.05 cents, September 14): outside my circle of competence on entertainment outcomes. Pass.