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Steve Eisman, the investor made famous by “The Big Short,” says the artificial intelligence boom has made OpenAI so central to the U.S. economy that its failure could tip the country into recession almost overnight.

“If tomorrow OpenAI failed, the U.S. economy, I think, would go into an immediate recession and the market would have a massive correction,” Eisman told host David Lin in an interview.

Eisman said. Eisman stressed he isn’t predicting OpenAI will fail, describing it as a hypothetical risk.

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How OpenAI Became a Macro Risk

St. Louis Fed economists estimated that investment categories closely tied to AI accounted for 39% of U.S. economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025, compared with 28% for similar technology spending at the peak of the dot-com boom.

The scale of OpenAI’s spending is enormous.

It has reportedly agreed to buy roughly $300 billion of computing capacity from Oracle Corp. over five years.

That single commitment is equivalent to nearly half of Oracle’s $638 billion in contracted future business, illustrating how heavily some of the AI infrastructure boom now depends on OpenAI continuing to spend.

“I think it’s a little nerve-wracking that the entire U.S. economy is dependent upon two companies that lose billions,”

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Can OpenAI Keep Growing?

OpenAI is still growing quickly. Its annualized revenue reportedly reached $40 billion this month, after second-quarter revenue growth slowed to 18%. The latest figure suggests growth has since accelerated.

Eisman said the key test will be whether OpenAI can maintain its growth as customers become more price-sensitive. He said that shift began around June and July, making second-half revenue growth especially important.

Anthropic’s quarterly revenue reportedly more than doubled to $11.6 billion in June, while OpenAI’s rose just 18% to $6.7 billion. At the same time, OpenAI’s operating loss widened by about $3 billion.

That gap helps explain why Eisman calls OpenAI the “weak sister.”

Asked what slower business demand would mean for chipmakers and the rest of tech, Eisman didn’t hedge: “I think the whole tech space sells off.”

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He isn’t betting on it, though. Eisman said he remains long Nvidia Corp. and several other tech stocks. “I’m less long ’cause I’ve gotten nervous, but I am not short,” he said.

Prediction Markets Aren’t Buying It

Traders are far less worried, at least this year. Polymarket gives a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 just an 8% chance on about $1.7 million in volume, down from roughly 30% in April.

Eisman said the risk could materialize “a year from now.” A Kalshi contract on a recession by the end of 2027 trades near 30%, on about $267,000 in volume.

Eisman’s point is simple: the more the U.S. economy relies on AI spending, the more OpenAI’s financial health matters far beyond OpenAI itself.

Image: Shutterstock

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