Shopify reinstated at Bank of America with ‘Buy’ rating on agentic commerce growth outlook Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP) has been awarded a ‘Buy’ rating and a $150 price target in reinstated coverage, citing the company’s potential to benefit from the evolution of AI-driven “agentic commerce,” as well as ongoing international expansion and enterprise adoption.
The firm’s price target is based on a valuation of 22 times estimated calendar 2027 enterprise value to gross profit. Bank of America wrote that Shopify could become a key beneficiary of AI-native commerce as its payments and checkout infrastructure become increasingly important to transactions conducted through artificial intelligence-powered shopping experiences.
The analyst noted that concerns over AI disrupting Shopify’s position in the commerce ecosystem have weighed on investor sentiment, but argued that the company is positioned to benefit from the shift rather than be bypassed.
“We believe Shopify could be a core beneficiary of the shift toward AI-driven, agentic commerce rather than being disintermediated by it,” Bank of America wrote.
The firm expects agentic commerce to become a meaningful part of e-commerce over the coming years and believes value will increasingly concentrate around transaction and infrastructure layers, where Shopify has an established presence.
Bank of America also highlighted international growth and expansion into larger merchants as additional long-term growth drivers. The firm noted that international gross merchandise volume grew 45% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, while payments volume outside the U.S. increased more than 70%. Non-U.S. revenue currently represents 37% of Shopify’s total revenue.
The analyst also pointed to continued momentum among enterprise customers, noting that merchants with more than $25 million in gross merchandise volume are growing at the fastest pace and that Shopify Plus revenue increased 20% year over year.
Bank of America forecasts Shopify revenue growth of 24% to 28% from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2028, with gross margins expected to remain in the mid-to-high 40% range. The firm expects operating margins to expand from 17.1% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2028, while free cash flow margins are forecast to increase from 17.4% to 20.3% over the same period.
The firm noted that Shopify’s payments-focused business model results in structurally lower gross margins, making enterprise value to gross profit a more relevant valuation measure. Its 22-times target multiple is above the peer group average of 18.1 times, reflecting Shopify’s growth outlook and expected margin expansion.
Shares of Shopify were down 5% at $115 in Wednesday trading.