{"id":116799,"date":"2026-07-23T18:19:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T18:19:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/116799\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T18:19:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T18:19:43","slug":"traders-bet-anthropic-will-ship-new-claude-opus-model-within-days-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/116799\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders bet Anthropic will ship new Claude Opus model within days"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>    <a href=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/67F5CD228DF3DACB9CC1CA9833A8853D540111F65A98ECDCE47D1D20B2A0B249\/subgraphmysterio\/resizefit_w960;quality_80;format_webp\/https:%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen%2Fproactive_uk_164%2F363fca0efdc99d81a67922a4212a5d32\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"Traders bet Anthropic will ship new Claude Opus model within days\" height=\"540\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-lf2kr7 loader\"\/><\/a> Traders bet Anthropic will ship new Claude Opus model within days Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock           <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Prediction market traders see a 91% chance that Anthropic releases its next Claude Opus model by the end of July, with odds surging 36 points in recent days.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The Polymarket contract, which has attracted more than $227,000 in trading volume, puts a 68% probability on a launch by this Thursday, 24 July.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">A release by Tuesday is priced at just 17%, suggesting traders expect an announcement later in the week rather than imminently.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The odds of a new Opus arriving by the end of August stand at 95%, rising to 99% by the end of October.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The market resolves only on models explicitly branded Opus, meaning Anthropic&#8217;s Mythos-class Fable 5, released in June, does not qualify.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/techdefused.com\/a\/IPzXOqa\/openais-rush-to-match-anthropics-mythos-exposes-a-new-front-in-the-ai-arms-race-\" data-ylk=\"slk:Anthropic%20has%20maintained%20a%20rapid%20release%20cadence%20this%20year;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Anthropic has maintained a rapid release cadence this year&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Anthropic has maintained a rapid release cadence this year<\/a>, shipping Opus 4.6 in February, Opus 4.7 in April and Opus 4.8 in late May, a new flagship roughly every six to eight weeks.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">That rhythm has fed speculation that a successor, potentially a full Claude Opus 5, is close, with leaks referencing an internal codename, Honeycomb.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Rumoured capabilities include major gains in agentic coding, context windows above 1 million tokens and improved efficiency, though none has been confirmed by the company.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The odds jumped sharply on 1 July, when the December contract moved from around 50 cents to 93 cents in a single session, suggesting traders had seen a corroborating signal rather than a public announcement.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei conceded in April that Opus trailed the unreleased Mythos model on benchmarks, framing Opus 4.8 as a bridge rather than a ceiling.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">A separate Polymarket contract asking whether the model lands specifically on Thursday, 23 July trades at 29%.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Traders also assign a 95% chance that a new Claude Sonnet model will arrive by the end of December, and 51% for a new Haiku.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Traders bet Anthropic will ship new Claude Opus model within days Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock Prediction&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116800,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[53,3154,182,2406],"class_list":["post-116799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-anthropic","tag-anthropic","tag-anthropic-claude","tag-claude","tag-claude-opus"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}