The Lloyds (LSE:LLOY) share price has absolutely crushed the FTSE 100 in recent times. According to AJ Bell, the five-year annualised total return is just shy of 23%. <\/p>\n
Put another way, \u00a310k invested in the Black Horse bank in mid-2021 would now be worth almost \u00a328k, assuming dividends were reinvested. This comes after double-digit gains in four out of the past five years, including a scorching 85% total return in 2025. <\/p>\n
The stock is off to a flyer in 2026 too, gaining 16.7%. Meanwhile, the average price target from 19 analysts suggests the share price could edge up to almost 124p over the next 12 months. <\/p>\n
But with risks mounting in the global economy, and the new government’s upcoming autumn Budget causing yet more uncertainty for UK businesses, might 2026 end up as a rare down year for Lloyds? <\/p>\n
Could it even, gulp, crash? I asked ChatGPT, the world’s most popular AI chatbot, to put a probability figure on this. <\/p>\n
What did the bot say? <\/p>\n
The AI app says that a crash, which it defines as a fall of 30% or more over a short period, would probably require one or more of these things to happen: <\/p>\n
A deep UK recession and job losses leading to a surge in bad loans. <\/p>\n
A housing market slump (Lloyds being the UK’s largest mortgage lender). <\/p>\n
A major shock, similar to the motor finance investigation.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
A broader stock market sell-off that drags down all bank shares. <\/p>\n
The bot doesn’t see a crash as the most likely outcome, but it did give a 15% probability of a crash, and a further 35% chance of a correction (10%\u201330% decline). That’s a 50% chance that Lloyds stock could drop by double digits from today’s price. <\/p>\n
Is ChatGPT too bearish? <\/p>\n
Despite the real risks mentioned above, such a high figure might surprise investors. <\/p>\n
After all, in late April, Lloyds reported a strong start to 2026, reaffirming full-year guidance for underlying net interest income of at least \u00a314.9bn and a return on tangible equity above 16%. \u00a0 <\/p>\n
Our differentiated business model remains resilient in the context of the current economic uncertainties.
CEO Charlie Nunn, April 2026. <\/p>\n
My view is that ChatGPT’s probability figure is a little high. Particularly because a correction is more often defined as a drop of 10%\u201320% from a recent high (not 10%\u201330%, as the bot said). <\/p>\n
We’re nearly into August now, so I’m pretty sure a 25% drop before January would feel more painful for Lloyds shareholders than a run-of-the-mill correction. <\/p>\n
Plus, the starting valuation isn’t high. For 2027, the forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio is 9.3, which is undemanding. There’s also a well-covered forward dividend yield of 4.1%, adding to the appeal of the shares. <\/p>\n
Lloyds also launched a share buyback programme of up to \u00a31.75bn in January, to run through to the end of 2026.\u00a0So that could act as a bit of a buffer against a share price meltdown. <\/p>\n
Should I buy Lloyds stock? <\/p>\n
I already have HSBC shares in my portfolio, alongside FinTechs Wise and Nu Holdings. Personally, I see that as enough exposure to financials. <\/p>\n
For those looking at Lloyds, I wouldn’t let ChatGPT sway an investing decision one way or the other. Its musings can be a little erratic (not to mention the occasional hallucination). <\/p>\n
But looking at it today, I think it’s worth considering for a diversified income portfolio. <\/p>\n
Should you invest \u00a35,000 in Lloyds Banking Group Plc right now? <\/p>\n
When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets. <\/p>\n
And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Lloyds Banking Group Plc made the list? <\/p>\n
\u00a0See The Six Stocks <\/p>\n
\u00a0 <\/p>\n
Ben McPoland owns shares in HSBC, Nu Holdings, and Wise. <\/p>\n
The post I asked ChatGPT if the Lloyds share price will crash in 2026. It said\u2026<\/a> appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie<\/a>. <\/p>\n More reading <\/p>\n The Twelfth Magpie 2026 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Lloyds (LSE:LLOY) share price has absolutely crushed the FTSE 100 in recent times. According to AJ Bell,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110353,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[580,16577,18433,157,12465,2707],"class_list":["post-120267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-openai","tag-chatgpt","tag-lloyds","tag-lloyds-banking-group","tag-openai","tag-price-target","tag-share-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120267"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120267\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}