AI to the rescue?<\/p>\n
How can we tackle these dual problems? How can we encourage students who are well prepared to succeed in college\u2014including those from disadvantaged backgrounds\u2014to go for it? And how can we simultaneously discourage ill-prepared students from wasting their time and money giving college a try?<\/p>\n
If we humans aren\u2019t willing to level with young people, maybe AI will. Which made me wonder: Do the chatbots offer better advice?<\/p>\n
To find out, I asked Fordham\u2019s research interns to query ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok, in incognito mode, with the same, simple prompt: \u201cShould I go to college?\u201d<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how the AI\u2019s did.<\/p>\n
The good news is that AI gives decent advice\u2014except on the one thing that predicts outcomes best, which is whether students complete a degree.<\/p>\n
Without exception, the chatbots rejected the \u201ccollege-for-all\u201d mindset. None responded with an oversimplified \u201cyes, you should go to college,\u201d just extolling the wonders of the college wage premium, as the higher education industry might want them to. Instead, their answers amount to various versions of \u201cit depends.\u201d<\/p>\n
Gemini:<\/p>\n
There is no single \u201cright\u201d answer here. College is a fantastic launchpad for some, a massive financial trap for others, and entirely unnecessary for many successful careers.<\/p>\n
ChatGPT:<\/p>\n
It depends on what you\u2019re hoping college will do for you. College is a good fit for many people, but it\u2019s not the only path to a successful or fulfilling career.<\/p>\n
Claude:<\/p>\n
Honestly, it depends a lot on your specific situation\u2014there\u2019s no universal right answer here.<\/p>\n
Grok:<\/p>\n
It depends on you\u2014your goals, personality, finances, and risk tolerance. College isn\u2019t automatically the best (or worst) move. For many people it pays off, but for others it\u2019s an expensive detour.<\/p>\n
They go on to discuss the tradeoffs and the pros and cons. Grok in particular does a nice job with that:<\/p>\n
The case for college<\/p>\n
\u2013 Earnings premium: Bachelor\u2019s degree holders earn ~60 percent more than high school grads on average. Lifetime premium often exceeds $1 million (net of costs). Unemployment is lower (around 3.1 to 3.4 percent for young college grads vs. 5 to 6 percent without).<\/p>\n
\u2013 Long-term advantages: Better access to jobs with health insurance, retirement benefits, and career mobility. Many professional fields (engineering, medicine, law, certain business\/tech roles) effectively require it.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Break-even: Most grads recoup costs by mid-30s (sooner with aid or in-demand majors). Public schools and community college transfers improve return on investment.<\/p>\n
The case against (or \u201cmaybe skip\u201d)<\/p>\n
\u2013 Cost and debt: Average bachelor\u2019s debt ~$29k to $43k depending on path. Total U.S. student debt is $1.77 trillion. Opportunity cost (4+ years of forgone wages) adds up.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Diminishing returns for some: Non-degree paths are closing the gap in certain trades. Underemployment for recent grads is high (~42 percent in some data), especially in mismatched majors.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Alternatives work well: Many trades\/apprenticeships let you earn while learning with zero\/low debt. Completion rates vary (50 to 70 percent+ in good programs), but completers often hit solid middle-class or better pay faster.<\/p>\n
They also provide some important nuance. Grok does well here, too, explaining that one\u2019s choice of major is essential:<\/p>\n
Engineering, computer science, nursing, and some business\/econ paths pay back fast (2 to 5 years). Arts, humanities, psychology, and education often take 10 to 18+ years and have lower ceilings.<\/p>\n
And Claude says:<\/p>\n
There\u2019s also a lot of room between \u201cgo straight to a 4-year school\u201d and \u201cskip it entirely\u201d\u2014community college first, working a year or two to figure things out, or a trade program are all legitimate paths that sometimes get overlooked.<\/p>\n
And they all suggest questions that the individual might ask themself. Here are ChatGPT\u2019s:<\/p>\n
\u2013 What kind of work do you want to do? Some careers (such as medicine, engineering, teaching, or many research roles) require a degree. Others (such as many skilled trades, some tech roles, entrepreneurship, and creative fields) may not.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Do you enjoy academic learning? If you like structured learning and want to study a subject in depth, college can be rewarding beyond just career preparation.<\/p>\n
\u2013 What\u2019s the financial picture? Consider tuition, scholarships, grants, expected student debt, and the earning potential of the field you\u2019re interested in.<\/p>\n
\u2013 What are your alternatives? Apprenticeships, trade schools, certifications, military service, internships, or going directly into the workforce can all be strong options depending on your goals.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Are you ready now? If you\u2019re unsure, taking a gap year with a plan\u2014working, volunteering, or exploring interests\u2014can help you make a more informed choice.<\/p>\n
This all strikes me as quite reasonable! The bad news, though, is that none of the chatbots is as straightforward as it all should be about academic readiness, and especially about the huge risk of attending college but not completing.<\/p>\n
ChatGPT comes closest. It says:<\/p>\n
If you tell me:<\/p>\n
\u2013 your age,<\/p>\n
\u2013 what subjects or jobs interest you,<\/p>\n
\u2013 your grades,<\/p>\n
\u2013 and whether cost is a major concern,<\/p>\n
I can help you weigh whether college, trade school, a gap year, or another path seems like the strongest fit for your situation.<\/p>\n