Jeff Barrington, managing director at boutique investment bank Windsor Drake, told Benzinga that SpaceX is “the market\u2019s first verdict on the AI-era giant,” and that verdict was blunt: revenue alone won\u2019t justify a trillion-dollar valuation.<\/p>\n
“Revenue is not enough,\u201d Barrington said. \u201cYou have to earn the valuation with cash flow.\u201d<\/p>\n
That dynamic could have major implications for OpenAI and Anthropic, whose private valuations have climbed toward the trillion-dollar range on expectations that artificial intelligence will become a foundational technology platform.<\/p>\n
As both companies move closer to potential IPOs, investors will likely scrutinize the same issues facing SpaceX: whether massive spending can translate into sustainable profits and whether private-market valuations can hold up under public-market scrutiny.<\/p>\n
SpaceX created a new reference point for companies whose valuations are built around future potential, Barrington explained.<\/p>\n
“It also sets the reference point for the ones coming next,” he added. “OpenAI and Anthropic have the same profile, huge revenue and huge spend, so their private marks near $900 billion to a trillion will be tested against how SpaceX actually traded.”<\/p>\n
The reaction does not necessarily signal that investors have turned against high-growth companies. Instead, it suggests markets are becoming more selective about which businesses can support premium valuations, particularly those relying on long-term bets around artificial intelligence, infrastructure and scale.<\/p>\n
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