{"id":139963,"date":"2026-08-14T12:35:50","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T12:35:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/139963\/"},"modified":"2026-08-14T12:35:50","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T12:35:50","slug":"anthropics-2-trillion-math-problem-its-underlying-business-is-nowhere-near-its-ipo-valuation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/139963\/","title":{"rendered":"Anthropic’s $2 trillion math problem: Its underlying business is nowhere near its IPO valuation"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u27a1\ufe0f Did someone forward you this email? If you would like to receive this information directly, every morning before the markets open in New York, sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

ONE BIG THINGAnthropic needs Amazon-level earnings to justify its $2 trillion valuation\u2014and it\u2019s nowhere near that<\/p>\n

The awkward part of the $2 trillion Anthropic IPO is that the company reportedly isn\u2019t making any net income yet. At valuation multiples common to large-cap companies in the Nasdaq 100, Anthropic would need to post annual profits in the neighborhood of $59 billion to $79 billion to keep pace. It is nowhere near that right now, Fortune\u2019s Amanda Gerut reports<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At $2 trillion, Anthropic\u2019s expected valuation is on the scale of Amazon’s, at $2.86 trillion. Amazon\u2019s Q2 revenues ($200.6 billion) generated $62.6 billion of net income.<\/p>\n

Anthropic looks like a minnow next to Amazon. The Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic\u2019s second-quarter 2026 revenue would more than double but still only hit $10.9 billion, and the company would for the first time post an operating profit\u2014which is not the same as net earnings.<\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n

Billionaire Joshua Kushner just bought the Lakers for $12.5 billion\u2014OpenAI\u2019s Sam Altman once said he \u2018doesn\u2019t care\u2019 what others think<\/a> – Orianna Rosa Royle<\/p>\n

This matchmaker went viral when her $35,000 client took a date to a soft pretzel restaurant\u2014but he wasn\u2019t subject to the \u2018bald tax\u2019 or the \u2018short tax\u2019<\/a> – Eva Roytburg<\/p>\n

Dating apps are swiping left on the features that made them as Gen Z looks for love in real life<\/a> – Tatiana Sataua<\/p>\n

A small Texas company\u2019s bid to create a Greenland oil boom\u2014and a Dr. Phil documentary\u2014is delayed but undaunted<\/a> – Jordan Blum<\/p>\n

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky says AI writes 60% of its code\u2014and sustaining \u2018founder mode\u2019 is the key to winning in the age of AI<\/a> – Sarah Glodek<\/p>\n

Billionaire Home Depot cofounder Bernie Marcus\u2019 foundation donates nearly $30 million toward stem cell research for heart attacks<\/a> – Sydney Lake<\/p>\n

Prediction markets\u2019 reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin<\/a> – Camila Grigera Na\u00f3n<\/p>\n

THE MARKETSFlat is the new up<\/p>\n

S&P 500 futures are flat this morning. The index rose 0.65% yesterday.\u00a0
\nIn Europe, the Stoxx 600 was flat in early trading, and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down 0.15% before lunch.
\nAsia: South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was up 2.42%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was up 0.59%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was flat. China\u2019s CSI 300 was flat.\u00a0
\nBrent crude was $87 per barrel this morning.
\nBitcoin was $62.8K.<\/p>\n

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UNSOLVED MYSTERIES OF THE FEDDid Kevin Warsh, who is against forward guidance, give forward guidance to the FT?<\/p>\n

At Macquarie, Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry have been forensically dissecting a week-old article in The Financial Times<\/a> about Fed chairman Kevin Warsh. It reported that \u201cpeople close to Warsh\u201d and \u201cpeople familiar with his thinking\u201d (hmm!) admitted that Warsh had a rocky first 10 weeks at the central bank, as illustrated by the jump in long-term Treasury yields after Warsh failed to convince the markets he was serious about hitting the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Macquarie pair believes the Fed will deliver an interest rate rise later this year, because inflation has been higher than 2% for five straight years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere was also an important signal last week that Warsh is taking corrective action following the July press briefing and the loss of credibility that ensued,\u201d the analysts said in a note seen by Fortune.<\/p>\n

The August 6 article said Warsh is \u201cprepared to raise rates at September\u2019s meeting if inflation readings released in coming weeks are hot, and markets ratchet up their expectations for increases in borrowing costs.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThat’s not specific enough to be a representation of the Fed’s reaction function, but it does sound specific enough to suggest that it was an intentional disclosure intended to do damage control, rather than an attempt on the part of the Fed’s \u2018hawks\u2019 to justify their views,\u201d the analysts said. \u201cOf course, if the FT disclosure was planted by Warsh, it also exposed another mistake\u2014i.e., his willingness to offer guidance only as \u2018damage control\u2019 after market pricing reflected confusion over his original lack of a policy outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n

AI\u2019S DOWNSIDE SURPRISESThree-quarters of every AI dollar leaves the country<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t tell the president, but three-quarters of every dollar invested in AI ends up spent on imports to the U.S., according to a research paper from Jessica Rindels and David Mericle at Goldman Sachs. The bank estimates that $600 billion will be spent building out AI services this year, the equivalent of 2% of GDP. However, because most AI equipment needs to be imported, the dollars spent on it end up in foreign countries\u2014which is negative for GDP. When that spending is taken into account, AI only adds 0.5% to GDP, as this chart shows:<\/p>\n

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AI is driving inflation, too<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s not all. AI is driving inflation, not curing it, according to Bank of America. Some economists\u2014including Fed chairman Kevin Warsh\u2014are hoping that AI will make workers so much more productive it will lower prices across the economy in much the same way that adding extra workers to the labor market would.<\/p>\n

But in July\u2019s CPI inflation number, core goods rose 0.2%, driven in part by a 1.4% increase in electronic goods.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe AI investment boom is inflationary in the near-term,\u201d BofA\u2019s Stephen Juneau said in an email.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cAI is not only raising input costs for electronics, but also driving a positive wealth effect that is supporting consumer demand. The disinflationary effects of AI that chair Warsh has been touting will have to wait a little longer.\u201d<\/p>\n

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CHART OF THE DAYThe U.S. deficit was getting better\u2014until it suddenly got worse<\/p>\n

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The U.S. Treasury reported a budget deficit of $432 billion for July, much larger than in the same month last year, when it was only $291 billion. Fiscal year-to-date, the total deficit is $1.799 trillion\u2014at this point last year it was only $1.629 trillion. As this chart from Nancy Vanden Houten at Oxford Economics shows, the 2026 fiscal year was shaping up to have smaller deficits than 2025, until very recently. What happened? \u201cTax cuts, tariff refunds, and increased defense spending boost the deficit,\u201d she said. Her second chart shows that spending versus revenue went in opposite directions:<\/p>\n

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NUMBER OF THE DAY: New founders who start at the bottom1 in 4<\/p>\n

The share of new businesses whose founders come from low-income households, according to Bank of America. That\u2019s up from one in five in 2020. Why the improvement? \u201cAs AI becomes embedded in certain tasks, founders may be finding it easier to launch and manage businesses with fewer resources, potentially lowering some of the traditional barriers to entry,\u201d according to BofA\u2019s Liz Everett Krisberg and David Tinsley.<\/p>\n

THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n

JPMorgan debanked Polymarket over regulatory concerns<\/a> – FT<\/p>\n

U.S. to use economic tactics on Iran \u2018that have never been seen\u2019; Navy works to relieve troubled carrier USS Abraham Lincoln<\/a> – CNBC<\/p>\n

House Democrats rage over GOP stock trading “set-up”<\/a> – Axios<\/p>\n

How Trump and Musk rekindled a relationship that seemed beyond repair<\/a> – WSJ<\/p>\n

Trump gives green light to U.S. companies to aim hacks at cybercriminals<\/a> – NYT<\/p>\n

Meet the 17-year-olds behind the finance world\u2019s favorite Gen Z newsletter<\/a> – NY Post<\/p>\n

ONE MORE THINGInsider trading, but make it a subscription<\/p>\n

When asked about Trump Media & Technology Group\u2019s plan to feed the president\u2019s social media posts in advance to Wall Street firms willing to pay for a head-start on his market-moving statements, Gian Luca Clementi of the NYU Stern School of Business told Fortune: \u201cI\u2019ll be blunt \u2026 This is insider trading by definition.\u201d It might also be unconstitutional\u2014and the White House has already been sued over it<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Yet more than 10 companies have signed up for the service, most of them high-frequency trading firms, paying between $60,000 and $100,000 per month. That sounds like a lot\u2014until you realize that back in April, when Trump posted he would pause planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure, it led to a $1.5 trillion stock market rally. Fortune\u2019s Sasha Rogelberg reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u27a1\ufe0f Did someone forward you this email? If you would like to receive this information directly, every morning…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":139964,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[53,1984,58594,369,286,66],"class_list":["post-139963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-anthropic","tag-anthropic","tag-economics","tag-fortune-500-digest-weekday","tag-iran","tag-markets","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139963\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/139964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=139963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=139963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}