That confidence runs against OpenAI’s own move earlier this month. On August 7, the company said it had slowed Astra’s releas<\/a>e, citing cybersecurity risks. OpenAI’s own preparedness disclosure was blunter: internal evaluations of Astra showed “significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity,” and the company concluded it “cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities” under its safety framework. <\/p>\n A model at OpenAI’s Critical threshold could, by the company’s own definition, find and build working zero-day exploits across many hardened systems without human help. <\/p>\n The Polymarket odds still lean toward a near-term drop. The Sept. 15 contract shows 59% at about $27,600 in volume; the Sept. 30 contract sits near 72% on $35,600. A separate “which week” market favors an August 31\u2013September 6 window at 39%. OpenAI has no release date, so the contracts resolve on the company’s own announcement. <\/p>\n On Myriad, a prediction market maintained by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the larger odds point to September 30<\/a> as the most likely deadline for GPT-6. Myriad traders place 31% odds on the end of September, with only 19% odds on September 15, and the longshot bet of August 21 at just 5% (but rising). <\/p>\n The gap between OpenAI’s caution and trader optimism isn’t unusual for this beat. Prediction markets hit $2 billion<\/a> in weekly volume this year as Polymarket’s lead widened, and OpenAI launch dates are a recurring favorite. Back in July, odds of a public GPT-6 release<\/a> by September 30 were at around 78%. <\/p>\n OpenAI’s post said Astra “was not involved in exploiting Hugging Face,” distancing the model from a recent incident as it weighed how to ship something it says it still can’t fully safety-test. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prediction market traders are pretty sure OpenAI is cooking, and it’s next big AI model could be coming…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":144053,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[10769,157],"class_list":["post-144052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-openai","tag-astra","tag-openai"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=144052"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144052\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/144053"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=144052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=144052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=144052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}