Polymarket traders currently see the highest odds for a SpaceX IPO valuation between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.<\/p>\n
Kalshi traders currently place 92% odds on an OpenAI IPO this year and 69% odds on an Anthropic IPO.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank said projected IPO valuations appear stretched compared with Berkshire Hathaway, which generated over $350 billion in annual revenue last year.<\/p>\n
Retail investors are piling into Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) and Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) as prediction market traders bet upcoming IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could debut at valuations rivaling or surpassing Tesla and Meta Platforms.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, DXYZ surged 27%, while VCX jumped 18%.<\/p>\n
See what 10M+ investors are talking about. Get the Stocktwits Daily Rip for what retail is watching right now, free to your inbox<\/a><\/p>\n Traders Bet On Massive SpaceX, OpenAI And Anthropic Debuts <\/p>\n The speculation accelerated after SpaceX officially filed to go public on Nasdaq earlier this week, while OpenAI could also reportedly confidentially file for an IPO as soon as Friday. The excitement quickly spilled into publicly traded funds offering indirect exposure to late-stage private tech firms, particularly DXYZ and VCX, both of which hold stakes in the companies planning to go public.<\/p>\n Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in a blockbuster SpaceX IPO that could rank among the largest public debuts in history. According to Polymarket, the single most likely outcome for SpaceX\u2019s first-day closing valuation currently falls between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion, with traders assigning a 37% odds to that range. Another 22% probability is attached to a valuation between $2.5 trillion and $3 trillion, while markets place 29% odds on a debut between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.<\/p>\n Traders are also assigning smaller but still notable odds of 8% that SpaceX could finish above a $3 trillion valuation on its first trading day. The estimates imply a massive jump from SpaceX\u2019s most recent private valuation of $1.25 trillion earlier this year.<\/p>\n Prediction traders have also become increasingly bullish on OpenAI and Anthropic. Kalshi traders are assigning 92% odds that the ChatGPT owner goes public this year. Meanwhile, Anthropic, creator of the Claude AI platform, currently carries about 69% odds of an IPO this year on Kalshi. Polymarket traders are also pricing in strong odds that OpenAI and Anthropic will debut at above-trillion-dollar valuations.<\/p>\n Polymarket currently places 65% odds that OpenAI closes its first trading day above a $1.4 trillion valuation, while Anthropic traders place nearly 50% odds on a debut above $1.8 trillion. If realized, the implied valuations would place the companies firmly alongside some of the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d stocks, including Tesla and Meta, which have valuations of about $1.5 trillion.<\/p>\n Story Continues <\/p>\n DXYZ, VCX Turn Into AI, Space IPO Bets <\/p>\n The growing IPO excitement has made DXYZ one of retail traders\u2019 preferred indirect bets on SpaceX. SpaceX currently represents Destiny Tech100\u2019s largest portfolio position at 16.2% of assets, significantly larger than any other holding inside the fund.<\/p>\n As of the end of last year, Destiny Tech100 reported net asset value growth of over 210% from the previous year, while total portfolio fair value hit $434 million. The portfolio later expanded further after adding exposure tied to Anthropic, CHAOS Industries and aerospace startup Hermeus. The fund also maintains exposure to Plaid through a single-asset SPV structure tied to future liquidity events.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, VCX has emerged as a more AI-heavy retail proxy, with Anthropic accounting for 20.7% of the portfolio, followed by OpenAI at 9.9% and SpaceX at about 5%. AI-related investments make up nearly 44% of VCX\u2019s portfolio exposure overall.<\/p>\n Wall Street Questions Valuation Disconnect <\/p>\n Despite the recent IPO hype from private tech firms, some analysts warn that the projected IPO valuations appear disconnected from current business fundamentals, particularly compared with established companies like Berkshire Hathaway, which currently carries a market cap of about $1 trillion.<\/p>\n Deutsche Bank noted that Berkshire generated over $350 billion in annual revenue last year, far exceeding the estimated revenue of many anticipated IPO candidates being discussed at similar or even higher valuations, CNBC noted. SpaceX generated about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, while OpenAI reportedly generated an estimated $13.1 billion.<\/p>\n Anthropic\u2019s financials remain less transparent, although reports<\/a> this week suggested the company could be nearing profitability, with annualized revenue of $11 billion. SpaceX and OpenAI also remain unprofitable despite the massive valuations being projected by traders.<\/p>\n Deutsche Bank said that concerns about the market\u2019s ability to absorb multiple mega-IPOs may be overstated, noting that the U.S. stock market is now worth $70 trillion, about five times larger in nominal terms than during the dot-com peak, when annual IPOs averaged nearly 500 listings, compared with 120 per year this decade.<\/p>\n How Do Retail Traders Feel About DXYZ And VCX? <\/p>\n On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around DXYZ was \u2018extremely bullish\u2019 amid \u2018high\u2019 message volume, while sentiment for VCX remained \u2018bearish\u2019 with \u2018low\u2019 message volume.<\/p>\n One user said<\/a>, \u201c$DXYZ Every dip will be bought for 3 weeks. One more day above $51 pushes the topend to $125-$130. It\u2019s a moving target. Raise your aim. Punch through $70.67, massive air pocket to $103.07.\u201d<\/p>\n Another user said<\/a>, \u201c$VCX Been a great ride so far from $210. Slowly grinding higher on the 12 hr chart. Price target for me is $350, but might get a quick wick to $400.\u201d<\/p>\n Over the past year, VCX has surged 2,225%, while DXYZ is up 56%.<\/p>\n For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<\/p>\n Read Next: HIMS Stock Extends 3-Day Rally: Hims & Hers Targets GLP-1 Gold Rush In Canada After Novo Nordisk Patent Expiry<\/a><\/p>\n Deepti Sri has no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. StockTwits’ news team content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. For more, see our editorial policy<\/a>. This article was originally published on StockTwits<\/a>.<\/p>\n Related:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Polymarket traders currently see the highest odds for a SpaceX IPO valuation between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47950,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[53,3251,28171,21372,138,157,26162,658,28626],"class_list":["post-47949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-anthropic","tag-anthropic","tag-berkshire-hathaway","tag-deutsche-bank","tag-dxyz","tag-ipo","tag-openai","tag-retail-traders","tag-spacex","tag-vcx"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ai\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}