Australia is heading into the danger period for severe weather, with experts warning temperatures will be hotter than average across the nation.
Bushfires, heatwaves, thunderstorms, flooding and tropical cyclones are more likely to occur in Australia from October to April.
But this year, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) warned a strong El Nino was “firmly established” and expected to continue warming the southern hemisphere, peaking in late spring or summer.
El Nino occurs when Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are warmer than average, which means Australia’s temperatures will be hotter, many areas will have less rainfall and the risk of droughts and bushfires increases.
According to NEMA, eastern and southern parts of Australia will experience below average rainfall, while above average rainfall is expected in parts of western and northern Australia.
Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Caitlin Minney said the outlook showed warmer than average maximum and minimum temperatures were likely to be felt across Australia.
“We’re focusing on the chance of unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures, so that’s temperatures in the warmest 20 per cent of the historical range,” she said.
“At this time of year and into the warmer months, these are an indicator of areas that have a higher risk of severe heat.
“Much of the south, in particular, is at a higher risk of unusually high maximum temperatures, particularly the southeast and the southwest.
“It’s very likely across almost all of Australia that October to December minimum temperatures will fall into that unusually warm category.”
The bureau’s long-range forecast predicts higher chances of unusually warm temperatures across Australia, reflecting a global warming trend.
But experts warned the extreme heat would be more prolonged, more severe, and occur for a longer period of the year.
“We’re entering, climatologically, the warmest part of the year for much of northern Australia,” Ms Minney said.
“In August 2024, parts of northern and central Australia reached the high 30s and low 40s.
“We’re starting to see a continuation of bushfires across large parts of the north and even into parts of the south, with newly warm spring days being recorded.”
Ms Minney said temperatures were considered unusually warm when they exceeded 24.4C in Sydney or 23.3C in Melbourne during October.
“Of course, this varies by location and also by time of year,” she said.
“From October to December, anything above 23.3 degrees in Melbourne, which is more than an 80 per cent chance of this occurring, would be unusual.
“It doesn’t mean that every day will be around 23 or 24, it means over the season we’re likely to see temperatures that are on average much above average.”
Ms Minney said it was normal for cold fronts to hit the southeast up until December, and while this was still likely to occur, more summer-like temperatures above 30C would also be felt.
“Even before summer officially starts, (summer-like temperatures) across large parts of the south is not out of the question,” she said.
“Much warmer than average temperatures exceeding 40C and prolonged severe heatwaves are more likely this season due to that background of climate change.”
Earlier this year, the Australia and New Zealand National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) warned there was a heightened risk of bushfires in northern and southeastern NSW, South East Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria, and large parts of the Northern Territory during spring.
Fire specialists and Bureau of Meteorology climate prediction and fire weather experts analysed which parts of Australia were most at risk of bushfires.
AFAC warned below average rainfall in some parts of Tasmania and Victoria and above average fuel loads and dry soil in parts of Western Australia had elevated fire risks.
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said the variety of risk factors across different regions reinforced the need for communities to understand their local conditions and prepare early.
“While some areas are facing an elevated risk of fire this spring, bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook,” he said.
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