One Nation has revealed its plan to drive net migration below zero for three years could cut rent inflation by 6.5 per cent, delivering a potential saving of more than $50 a week for the average renter.
Modelling released by the party to News24.com.au estimated rents could be $54 a week lower by the third year of its proposed immigration reset – $2,818 a year.
The estimate was based on a national median dwelling rent of $705 a week, and was applied purely at a national level.
Rents in metropolitan areas would likely see more significant reductions, while regional areas may see no change in rent at all.
One Nation modelled three scenarios, with the lower-impact scenario predicting rent savings of $39 per week, or $83 per week under the high-impact scenario.
The figures were One Nation’s own modelling and were not produced by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).
The PBO cannot impact broader economic effects of policies, such as migration impact or rental impact.
One Nation’s analysis was based on research from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which suggested population changes of 50,000 impact rents by about 0.5 per cent.
The party’s three-year reset policy would reduce the temporary migrant population by about 750,000 over three years.
It estimates the student visa population would fall from about 590,000 in financial year 2026 to 350,000 by the end of the reset.
According to the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute data, 85 per cent of student visa holders rent, compared with 32 per cent across the general population.
One Nation argues that means reducing temporary migration would remove a disproportionately large amount of demand from the rental market.
But the size of the eventual effect depends on a number of assumptions, including how quickly migrants leave and how the rental market responds.
One Nation’s modelling takes an assumed annual inflation rate of 4 per cent, with nominal rents still rising 9.9 per cent over the three-year period.
But because overall prices would rise faster, One Nation calculates that rents would fall by 2.3 per cent in real terms.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson said the modelling demonstrated what her party’s migration reset could mean for households under rental pressure.
“Families are competing with hundreds of people for rental accommodation while more of their wages disappear into rent,” Senator Hanson said.
“Our modelling illustrates what reducing that pressure could mean for the family budget: approximately $2,818 a year at the average national rental by the third year.”
Ms Hanson said the party would pursue net-negative migration for three years before returning to a long-term NOM ceiling of 130,000.
“We will reduce the number of temporary migrants and unlawful non-citizens by more than 750,000 over those three year,” she said.
She also accused Labor and the Coalition of putting the interests of universities and employers ahead of living standards.
“We should be exporting education, not selling migration … Too many students are majoring in permanent residency,” she said.
Ms Hanson said the policy would still allow employers to access workers where shortages were genuine.
“We will maintain employer access to essential skilled workers, seasonal workers and working holiday makers, while training more Australians.”
Labor and Coalition also targeting migration
The proposal comes as immigration has become a major point of policy competition between the major parties.
Labor has targeting net overseas migration at 225,000 by 2027-28, with its reforms heavily focused on international students and backpackers.
The Coalition has now proposed substantially deeper cuts, targeting NOM of 100,000 for two years, followed by 130,000 and 160,000 in years three and four.
The Coalition says its policy would reduce the temporary migrant population by about 650,000 over four years while boosting some skilled migration streams.