A new poll has give the Coalition “a glimmer of hope” although it is still well behind Labor and One Nation.
Conducted in the aftermath of the shocking attack on Indi MP Helen Haines, The Guardian Essential Poll has placed both One Nation and Labor’s primary vote at 28 per cent each, with the Coalition on 23 per cent.
Anthony Albanese’s public disapproval rating is also at its highest level since he assumed office in 2022.
Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said the polling, if replicated at the 2028 federal election, would create a “murky” situation when it came to who could form government.
“There’s been a sense that voters who would support One Nation would probably also support the Coalition as their second preference,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“For those voters who vote for a right-of-centre party, it would make sense for them to send their preferences to other, similar parties. But this could also be highly dependent on what sort of preference deals parties do.
“There’s also the added fact that voters can ignore how-to-vote cards and preference flows, and they can determine where they send their preferences entirely independently.”
Australians have increasingly abandoned the process of following “how-to-vote cards” presented to them at polling booth that – if followed – show a clear flow of preferences between candidates in any given electorate.
In 2022, just 31 per cent of Australians followed how-to-vote card preferences, instead opting to dictate their own personal preference flows.
Even if One Nation candidates do extend the olive branch to their Liberal and National rivals and place them in the second spot, the average Australian can still dictate the distribution of their own, individual votes.
On a conventional Labor-Coalition two-party preferred basis, the opposition is sitting at its highest point in two years at 52 per cent, while the government is scraping the barrel with its lowest point in the same period at 44 per cent.
Dr Ghazarian said he was “shocked” to read the stats that suggested “voters are turning away from Labor” and there could be a “very, very close result” if that sentiment continues into an election.
“There are serious concerns in the electorate about not just the here and now but also future prospects. I think (the data shows) there’s a glimmer of hope for the Coalition.”
Prior polling had Labor at 29 per cent, with the drop attributed by pollsters as “coinciding with a further deterioration of Albanese’s personal approval ratings”.
The survey of 1087 Australians paints a dire picture for Mr Albanese, who has already found himself embroiled in controversy over the last few weeks related to funding of the Marrickville Golf Club and his subsequent honorary membership.
It also comes just days after Victorian Labor was given a sobering reminder that 12 years in government may not guarantee them another four, with Pyxis Polling & Insights placing Jess Wilson’s Coalition ahead of newly anointed Premier Ben Carroll’s reshuffled Labor cabinet.
In similar fashion to federal polling, Victorian figures have become significantly fragmented since the introduction of One Nation into the picture, who pollsters believe could snag as much as 20 per cent of the state’s primary votes.
One Nation have also come across their own recent gaffes, including Pauline Hanson’s Please Explain mockery of veteran senator Jacqui Lambie’s vaginal health condition and the discovery of a One Nation children’s colouring book depicting Bluey being held at knifepoint on Mr Albanese’s orders.
Read related topics:Rise of One Nation