Anthony Albanese’s national gun buyback crackdown has been dealt a major blow after Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan rejected a key plank of the proposed reforms ahead of the November state election, amid fears of a backlash across regional Labor seats, including her own.
The Allan government’s response to a rapid review conducted by former police commissioner Ken Lay was endorsed by cabinet on Monday, with Victoria refusing to adopt a proposed cap of up to four Category A and B firearms per licence holder.
The decision leaves the Albanese government’s proposed buyback scheme in serious doubt, with the cap on firearm ownership viewed as central to the broader national reforms being negotiated with the states and territories.
The Allan government accepted 15 of Mr Lay’s 16 recommendations, but rejected the proposal to impose the four-gun cap.
After The Australian revealed cabinet was set to reject the buyback scheme on Monday afternoon, Ms Allan confirmed Victoria would not support the cap, arguing the focus should instead be on criminals and illegal firearms rather than law-abiding gun owners.
“I’m just not necessarily convinced that caps is the way to go,” she said.
“The vast majority of gun owners do the right thing. What we need to really target and focus on, and our effort on, are those evil actors, the criminals, who get their hands on a single gun.”
The government said it would immediately legislate tougher firearms reforms including stronger trafficking penalties of up to 15 years’ imprisonment, tighter licensing checks, enhanced police powers and a citizenship requirement for gun licences.
Victoria joins South Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory in not participating in the buyback scheme announced by Mr Albanese in the wake of the Bondi terror attack, which sparked a renewed push for tougher gun restrictions and firearm limits. Queensland and the NT have rejected the scheme outright, while SA has signalled it will not tighten its gun laws.
Victoria’s move is the latest blow for the Albanese government, which wanted the states and territories to agree to reforms by March 31 and pass laws no later than July 1.
Senior state government sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were concerned about a voter revolt in regional and some outer-suburban electorates with large numbers of licensed firearm owners if they proceeded with a cap.
Ms Allan is facing a challenge from high-profile Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean in her seat of Bendigo East, while Labor MPs could be at risk of a campaign over guns in other electorates amid the surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Sources said the Premier was sympathetic to the concerns, and she has friends and family members who are licensed firearm owners.
Mr Lay’s review found there was “no clear evidence” that numerical caps alone reduce firearm-related harm, but also “no evidence that they are ineffective”, describing caps as an “emerging policy tool”.
“The recommendations on caps reflect the strong correlation between fewer firearms and reduced harm, in the decisions of national cabinet, and in the need for national consistency,” his report said, adding that a review should take place within five years.
The review said the number of registered firearms in Victoria had grown significantly over time, driven not by more owners but by existing licence holders accumulating more weapons.
Victoria will apply a citizenship requirement to holding a firearms licence to ensure any background information provided as part of the application is reliable and accurate, restricting ownership to Australian and New Zealand citizens who are
permanent residents of Australia, or non-citizens who require a firearms licence for occupational purposes.
It will also adopt Mr Lay’s recommendation to give Victoria Police stronger powers to reclassify firearms so higher-risk weapons and emerging technologies could be more quickly moved into tougher categories.
It is understood Victoria and other states and territories were pushing back against the cost of the national gun buyback scheme being proposed by the Albanese government.
A report commissioned by Shooters Union Australia, which has been shared with the Allan government, found a Victorian buyback scheme would deliver little public safety benefit while imposing substantial costs.
The modelling, by Tulipwood Advisory, estimated the direct cost to Victoria at about $437.6m in 2026-27, including $404m in compensation payments and $33.6m in administration costs. The scheme would also reduce Victorian economic output by about $307m over four years, with a total national economic hit of about $412m, according to the report.
It modelled a scenario where Victoria buys back and destroys about 20 per cent of the state’s roughly one million registered firearms.
The report says employment in Victoria would fall by about 432 full-time-equivalent jobs in the first year, while national employment losses would total about 791 jobs.
Polling commissioned by the SUA found gun law changes were among the weakest vote-driving issues statewide, with cost of living, crime, housing and tax ranked as much bigger concerns.
SUA president Graham Park said the Albanese government was using Victoria as a political shield, pressuring it to implement a scheme that would impose economic costs on the state.
“This is Canberra trying to impose its politics on Victorian communities. The Albanese government rushed through legislation and is now leaving Victoria holding the bill,” Mr Park said.
“These are farmers and graziers who depend on firearms to protect crops and livestock from the feral animals that cost Australian agriculture close to a billion dollars a year in direct damage alone.
“They are competitive shooters representing Australia at the highest international levels. They are licensed, registered, background-checked and entirely law-abiding. Canberra is deciding to punish them anyway – and is leaning on Victoria to do the punishing.”
John Howard’s government fully funded the 1996 buyback – which netted more than 650,000 guns over a year – by temporarily raising the Medicare levy by 0.2 per cent of income.
That buyback cost less than $400m, but government sources have estimated the cost for the upcoming scheme to be much higher.
Anthony GallowayVictorian political editor