Australia must consider how it will “put the war paint on” if an imminent war breaks out in the Pacific, former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo has warned.

Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy on Thursday delivered a National Press Club address defending Labor’s defence credentials and unveiled major reforms to defence procurement.

He also outlined the importance of a “strong sovereign industrial base” for Australia’s international influence, including in the Pacific, during his National Press Club address.

Speaking to Sky News on Friday, Mr Pezzullo said he was “delighted” by what he made of sentiments expressed by Mr Conroy over the future of the region.

“I am delighted that what I’m hearing … [Mr Conroy] say, is that Taiwan will be our Poland, we will put the war paint on, that’s what he’s saying,” Mr Pezzullo said.

Mr Pezzullo said he believed a war in the Pacific was possible in the coming years.

“I think it’s not inevitable that there’s going to be a war in the Pacific, I don’t even think it is probable, but I think that it’s possible in either ‘27, moving into ‘28, into ‘29,” he said.

“If that happens, and particularly if our principal ally is at war, we need to think about how we’re going to put the war paint on.”

The US Intelligence Community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment report, published in March, assessed that Chinese leaders do not plan to invade Taiwan next year.

“The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” the report read.

“However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of ‘national rejuvenation’ by 2049—the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).”

China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and regularly describes it as the most sensitive and important issue in its relations with Washington.

Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

It comes after Mr Conroy in his address on Thursday said there was a “clear link” between his Defence Industry and Pacific Island Affairs portfolios.

“A strong sovereign industrial base increases our influence in the world, including in the Pacific,” he said.

“Our role as a member of the Pacific family is critical to regional prosperity and security, including Australia’s own security.”

Mr Conroy also made a controversial comparison between former prime ministers John Curtin and Robert Gordon Menzies, who both led the country during World War Two. 

“My great hero is John Curtin,” he said.

“I’m very interested in disclosing what really happened before World War II and during World War II, where it was a choice between John Curtin and Nazi-appeaser Robert Gordon Menzies,” he said.

His description of Mr Menzies prompted an immediate backlash in parliament.

Mr Pezzullo said there was historical context behind the debate but questioned whether the language used by the minister advanced the discussion.

He said there was significant debate among Allied leaders after Germany invaded Poland about whether conflict should be delayed while countries rebuilt military capability.

“Historically, he’s right,” Mr Pezzullo said of Mr Conroy’s broader argument.

“There was a big push to try to appease Hitler after the invasion of Poland, to try buy time, but I just don’t know that the label helped.”

The dispute centres on a letter written by Mr Menzies in September 1939 to Australia’s high commissioner to the UK.

The document, which was released publicly decades later, was written shortly after Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany and Australia entered World War Two.