Aussies may experience an abrupt end to winter, with warm, dry conditions expected over much of the country in the coming months.
Meteorologists say the likely conditions stem from two major weather systems that appear to be teaming up. The country could see both an El Niño event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in late winter and into spring.
In June, an El Niño event was officially declared in Australia.
A strong El Niño weather system, which sees the tropical Pacific Ocean warm, is predicted to be sustained for at least the rest of 2026, the Bureau of Meteorology said last month. It leads to warmer and drier conditions for eastern and southern Australia.
Now, meteorologists say the Indian Ocean sea temperatures may start to shift as well. This climate phenomenon is known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
A positive IOD is forecast to emerge from next month. It, combined with an El Niño, produces abnormally dry and warm weather.
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The darker red shades on the map show forecast maximum temperatures for October 2026 way above average, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model.
(Weatherzone)What does a positive Indian Ocean Dipole mean for Aussie weather?
Currently, the IOD is in a neutral phase, meaning neither a positive nor negative phase is occurring.
This means sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean are roughly equal, according to Weatherzone.
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But in the months ahead, forecast models indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies in the western tropical Indian Ocean will exceed those in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
If this happens, it will set up a positive IOD phase.
The brown shading on the map shows drier than usual conditions across Australia in October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model.
(Weatherzone)
Generally, this means there is less moisture than normal in the atmosphere to the northwest of Australia, increasing the likelihood of unusually warm and dry weather over much of Australia in late winter and spring.
How does a positive Indian Ocean Dipole work with El Niño?
According to Weatherzone, IODs rarely act in isolation, with other factors, such as the presence of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, influencing the warmer and drier conditions.
Some seasonal forecast models are already predicting below-average rain and above-average maximum temperatures across much of Australia by the middle of spring.
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