NSW Labor has pivoted its attention to protecting its former heartland in the state’s Hunter Valley from One Nation, with Premier Chris Minns saying a Hanson-Coalition alliance at next year’s state election would be bad for people without white skin.
Mr Minns told reporters he had to make his position clear as a leader after Senator Hanson derided the end of the White Australia policy on a recent podcast with UK agitator Tommy Robinson.
The comments were widely criticised by Anthony Albanese, Labor ministers and the Coalition, but Mr Minns went a step further and claimed Australia would become an outcast under Senator Hanson.
“Pauline Hanson made comments in the last 24 hours indicating that the problem with Australia was the removal of the White Australia policy, as if keeping it in Australia is the right policy for our country,” Mr Minns said.
As One Nation threatens to up-end the state election in March, Mr Minns tried to link the state Coalition with One Nation and said it would be bad for people without “white pigmentation”.
“What will that policy view and this leader mean for the state of NSW? If (this coalition) has significant power in our political institutions, inside our government … I think that that would be bad for our economy, bad for community cohesion, and bad for young people that may not have white pigmentation.
“So, in my view, the time is now for the Liberals and the Nationals to just let us know: Are they contemplating a government with this kind of awful view of the world, or are they not?”
Amid Mr Minn’s attacks, senior ministers in the NSW government made three major announcements in the Hunter over the past week, while the Premier’s headline announcement at the state Labor conference earlier this month was the unveiling of a $12bn train manufacturing facility for the region.
The pursuit of a deal with the federal government to jointly-fund the continued operation of the region’s Tomago aluminium smelter is also being driven by anxiety over what job losses would mean for Labor’s support.
Multiple party figures confirmed to The Australian One Nation’s surge meant seats previously considered welded to the party for decades would now require serious campaign resources.
“If an election is held today, the Labor Party is throwing the kitchen sink at these places,” one Labor source said.
Another said within the party there was “definitely a view there needs to be a focus on the Hunter” ahead of the March 2027 election, warning that “if there was an election tomorrow, we lose Cessnock”.
“There’s a view that Newcastle hasn’t received a lot of love and support for 12 years under the Coalition … if we don’t show it some love, who will?” they said.
It comes as analysis of polling obtained by the Australian suggests Labor-held seats across the Central Coast and nearby Hunter would be wiped out in an orange wave.
The seat-by-seat analysis, which is based off polling done by DemosAU last month overlaid with electoral census data, suggests Labor could lose a net three seats across the state, while the Coalition would be reduced to a rump of 12 MPs.
Among Labor’s seats in the firing line are Cessnock, held by Labor since 1927 except for one term, and Port Stephens, while One Nation would also win all the seats along The Central Coast.
Cessnock MP Clayton Barr said last week’s Hunter announcements, which included plans to transform former mine sites into industrial land, had been in the pipeline for years.
“We’re always had to work hard in the Hunter – this election won’t be any different,” he said.
A One Nation insider, responding to Labor’s recent focus on the region, said: “It must be an election year if Labor are suddenly paying attention to the Hunter again”.
“All they’ve done for the last three years is attack the critical industries that support our region — banning all new mining projects, axing coal jobs, and carving up prime farmland with massive transmission lines,” they said.
Mr Minns on Wednesday told a business event One Nation was a long-term electoral threat extending beyond being just a “flash in the pan”.
“I have seen it with my own eyes, my own community. They’ve got a big pool of support,” he told a Business Sydney dinner.
“I’ve deliberately not come here and said, ‘One Nation’s a flash in the pan, we don’t think it’s going to be a big deal’.”
The Premier also targeted One Nation in his address to the Labor faithful at the party’s state conference earlier this month, eschewing attacks on the Coalition.
The original DemosAU polling, held from June 15 to 18 of 1038 NSW voters, stated One Nation’s primary vote would be as high as 27 per cent – just five points below Labor.
The Coalition’s primary vote was down to 20 per cent.
Echoing popular sentiment in political circles, analysis of that polling shows a string of inner Sydney Liberal seats could be delivered to Labor with One Nation eating into the Liberals’ primary vote.
Metropolitan seats which would flow to Labor include Drummoyne, Epping and Ryde.
The analysis, which is floating around NSW political circles, also states the Nationals would go from 11 seats in NSW to just two – the Northern Tablelands and Cootamundra.
One Nation would win 27 seats according to the analysis, despite not yet naming a single candidate for the March 2027 election.
The analysis layered on the polling doesn’t take into account the benefits of incumbency.
“Since Farrer, the Liberals have shown no change – no fight – nothing to show they’re willing to stick it to the government,” a Liberal source said.
NSW opposition leader Kellie Sloane has refused to buy-in to questioning over whether she’d seek or accept any deals with One Nation, saying a month ago she was “determined” to win voters off the populist party.
“If they vote One Nation unfortunately because of the marginal seats in NSW … that means they’ll guarantee a bad Labor government is returned,” she said.
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