A major split has emerged in the electorate over whether President Xi Jinping’s China poses a significant threat to national security, with a growing number of left-leaning and universityeducated voters rejecting threats posed by Beijing despite the communist regime ramping up aggression towards Australia.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted between Monday and Thursday last week has revealed a majority of One Nation voters (76 per cent), Coalition supporters (74 per cent), women (61 per cent) and older Australians (68 per cent) believed China poses a significant threat to Australia’s national security. Partisan divisions meant the total number of voters who agree on the China threat has fallen to 60 per cent, with 31 per cent agreeing Beijing does not present a major threat and 9 per cent who don’t know.
That compares to a 2021 Newspoll question on the same subject – asked at the peak of China’s attacks on the Morrison government, Beijing’s unfair trade bans on Australian goods and the formation of AUKUS – that showed 75 per cent of voters thought Beijing posed a significant problem to national security.
The Newspoll of 1238 voters across the country showed 43 per cent of Labor supporters, 48 per cent of Greens supporters and 41 per cent of university-educated voters do not believe China poses a significant threat to Australia’s national security.
While all age groups believe China is a national security risk, Australians aged over 35 are more likely to acknowledge the threat, including almost 70 per cent of voters over 50.
More than 60 per cent of non-tertiary educated voters and 66 per cent of Australians with TAFE and training qualifications agree China is a threat. When The Australian previously asked the question in September-October 2021, 73 per cent of Labor voters, 57 per cent of Greens supporters and 65 per cent of young Australians aged between 18 and 34 shared the view that China posed a significant threat to Australia’s national security.
The latest Newspoll’s results come as Anthony Albanese and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles have worked to dampen a potential rebellion against AUKUS from the Labor Left at this week’s ALP national conference in Adelaide.
The fall in concern about China’s myriad military, espionage and cyber operations targeting Australia and Indo-Pacific partners is likely associated with the Albanese government’s efforts to avoid direct confrontation with Beijing despite several high-profile and provocative actions by the People’s Liberation Army.
There has also been rising domestic economic pressures and a greater focus on the US under President Donald Trump, as well as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The Chinese Communist Party, which dispatched Xiao Qian as its top diplomat in Canberra four years ago to work with the incoming Albanese government, is expected to appoint veteran diplomat Liu Jinsong as its new ambassador to Australia and shift back to a “wolf warrior” diplomacy approach.
As he works to strengthen alliances in the Pacific in the face of China’s growing aggression, Anthony Albanese was in Darwin on Monday to launch the three-week Exercise Pitch Black, which includes 100 aircraft and 2500 personnel from the Royal Australian Air Force and 20 other nations.
The air combat exercises, which are Australia’s biggest, involve “realistic, high-end training from RAAF bases Darwin and Tindal in the Northern Territory and RAAF Base Amberley in Queensland”.
Nations with aircraft and personnel participating in the war games include the US, Japan, PNG, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, India, France, Britain, New Zealand, Fiji and Singapore.
The exercise follows China’s firing of a long-range ballistic missile with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine earlier this month, just as the Prime Minister was visiting Fiji and the Solomon Islands to sign and progress security deals.
The missile flew more than 7000km before landing somewhere between Tuvalu and Nauru, with the strike zone estimated to be about 1000km northeast of the Solomon Islands.
After Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton lost Sydney and Melbourne seats with a high number of Australian-Chinese voters at the 2022 and 2025 elections, Labor and Liberal strategists are cognisant of not overreaching in raising concerns about China and often target their comments to the CCP and PLA.
The Coalition has adopted a stronger position on threats posed by Mr Xi’s regime amid concerns the Chinese President could spark a major regional conflict if he acts on his commitment to invade Taiwan.
In addition to Chinese-linked industrial-scale cyber security attacks targeting Australian critical infrastructure and widespread espionage and foreign interference operations, Chinese warships conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea and circumnavigated Australia ahead of the last federal election.
There has also been multiple military incidents, with a RAAF P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft targeted by a PLA-AF Su-35 fighter aircraft, which released flares close to the surveillance plane. Similar incidents involving flares targeting surveillance aircraft and an Australian navy helicopter have also been reported.
Other incidents have involved PLA aircraft and vessels engaging in dangerous manoeuvres targeting defence assets of Indo-Pacific countries in the South China Sea.
ADF divers were injured in 2023 after being subjected to sonar pulses from a Chinese vessel in the East China Sea.
Read related topics:China TiesNewspoll