Sydney’s RIU Resources Round-Up opened with a timely industry update from MST Financial, with Senior Investment Strategy Analyst Hasan Tevfik and Metals and Mining Analyst Matt Frydman unpacking ‘Resources in a volatile world’. It was the first of 100 presentations over the three-day event (5–7 May 2026).
The keynote presentation began by acknowledging that we are currently in a structural shift in the mining industry, driven by the energy transition and an increasing investment in technology.
With the US having just released Q1 GDP figures, Tevfik highlighted that almost all of this growth is coming from data centres, which is then cascading out to other industries, such as transportation and construction.
Across the mining industry, they note upgrades in sales, margins, and free cash flow, and valuations are at levels only seen once or twice in the last 60 years.
Tevfik questioned how long the high profit margins will last. Though this is tricky to predict, the logic is that with the supply disruptions around oil, driven by the war in the Middle East, usually a recession will follow. Whether that known pattern will occur will be revealed soon.
Commodity price shifts
Frydman acknowledged that China has historically been an important driver in commodity prices, but things are now changing. Using copper as an example, Frydman notes that the current tightness in the market is affected by the shortage of supply coming from South America, a major player in the metal.
Consistent supply issues coming out of China have been recognised globally and, as a result, other countries, their governments, and related companies are acting to make their own localised supply for many critical minerals and metals, including rare earths.
A number of commodities have spent a period of time below global supply requirements (copper included), driving higher prices amid growing demand.
Frydman pointed to the long lead times behind new mine supply, with the average mine taking almost 30 years to move from inception to production.
That delay reflects a mix of pressures, including capital constraints, labour shortages, approvals, and broader external factors. As demand continues to rise, slow project development can tighten supply and add further pressure to commodity prices.
Frydman says it’s time to play catch up in solving some of these issues, and much of that has already started. More countries and companies are creating strategic reserves to try and combat this supply shortage. This proactive approach is necessary with conditions becoming increasingly unpredictable. There is also a lot of supportive action by governments happening to help solve these problems before they arise, rather than after the fact, often when it’s too late.
MST Financial is a research-driven, outcomes-focused financial services firm headquartered in Sydney.
Mining.com.au is a media partner for the RIU Sydney Resources Round-Up conference and is attending this year’s program.
Write to Julija Zivanovic at Mining.com.au