A strengthening El Nino is tightening its grip on Australia, with the Bureau of Meteorology warning a warmer, drier stretch is about to bite across much of the country.

For millions in the east and south, the August to October outlook points to less rain, rising heat and growing concern for already dry regions.

Drier months ahead

The bureau’s latest long-range forecast says much of the South West Land Division of Western Australia, southeast South Australia and most of the eastern states are likely to miss out on usual seasonal rain.

Parts of the north, including the Top End, are also expected to be drier than normal.

Bureau senior hydrologist Paul Feikema said El Nino continued to strengthen, and “drier conditions are forecast for parts of the south and east”.

The strongest wet signal is in the northwest, where above average rainfall is likely to spread into parts of the interior later in the season as northern Australia moves towards the wet season.

There is also an increased chance of above average rainfall along the eastern coastal fringe of Cape York Peninsula, especially earlier in the period.

The bureau said the increased chance of low rainfall in parts of the southwest and southeast applied to regions already dealing with long-term rainfall deficiencies over the past two years.

“For these regions, while rainfall is very likely to be below average, seasonal totals are forecast to reach at least 25mm in most inland areas and at least 100mm in most alpine and coastal regions,” Dr Feikema said.

Warmer days, warmer nights

The temperature outlook is also leaning warm across most of the nation.

“Daytime temperatures for August to October are very likely to be above average across most of the country, except for parts of the far north,” Dr Feikema said.

“Nights are also likely to be warmer than average in most parts.”

The bureau said there was an increased chance of unusually high day and night temperatures across much of the southern two-thirds of Australia, with some of the strongest signals in Western Australia, the southeast and far southern Queensland.

Dr Feikema said the warmer outlook had come after an unusually mild July, with “warmer than average days and nights”.

“Some locations in the alpine regions had their warmest July temperatures on record, including Falls Creek, reaching 13C on the 19th of July,” he said.

“This is more than 3C warmer than the previous July record set in 1992.”

Early fire risk and water outlook

The bureau said rainfall through July had already shown a divide, with conditions drier than average in the west and in parts of eastern and southern Australia.

“In contrast, it has been wetter than average in parts of the far north,” Dr Feikema said.

He said the northern rain had come with a warning sign for the months ahead, with boosted vegetation growth adding to fuel loads.

“The fire season is already under way in northern Australia,” he said.

Across the country, soil moisture remains average to above average in large areas, especially through the interior and South Australia, but drier soils are becoming more widespread in the east and parts of the west.

Streamflow is above average at most sites in the north and in some eastern areas but below average across parts of the south, east and west.

National water storages are about 69 per cent full, about 3 per cent higher than this time last year.

Some storages in eastern Australia are at or near capacity, though others in the east and southwest remain at or below 50 per cent.

What’s driving it

The major driver remains the tropical Pacific, where El Nino is firmly established and forecast to keep strengthening through spring.

The bureau said all models indicated it was likely to peak in late spring or summer as a strong to very strong event.

At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral, though a positive phase may develop during winter and continue into spring.

It is a climate driver that can affect Australia’s rainfall, particularly during those seasons.

The bureau said El Nino was only one of several factors shaping Australia’s seasonal conditions, though it remained a major one.

Sea surface temperatures are also exceptionally warm globally, with June 2026 the warmest June on record for globally averaged ocean temperatures since 1900.

Waters around most of Australia are also above average, especially along the NSW and eastern Tasmania coasts.

Despite the broader warm outlook, the bureau warned frost risk had not disappeared.

“Despite the warm forecast, late season frosts remain possible under clear skies and where soils are dry,” Dr Feikema said.