Both teams wound the clock back this week. Carlton honoured two favourite sons in their 250th games by channelling their successful era of the 80s with hard-running, big marks and high workrate footy. Unfortunately for the Lions, they channelled Fitzroy from the same era.
The day had already provided Carlton fans with a reason to smile before the bounce: Essendon hit 8,000 days since their last finals win, and Collingwood lost to Geelong. For Blues supporters, those two factors alone would have been enough to call the weekend a success and have a quiet toast with Nonna’s homemade limoncello.
Then Brodie Kemp kicked five goals, Jagga Smith laid the rising star question to rest, Carlton produced just their third 150-point performance in a decade, and the reigning back-to-back premiers were torn apart to the tune of 76 points.
If that’s not a case for dusting off the old VL Commodore and doing laps up and down Lygon St, I don’t know what is. I know those old girls are collector’s cars now, but it may have been worth the added mileage.
By using revolutionary tactics such as passing the ball in front of a running player, running hard into space to create options, and having talls lead into the zone 20 metres out of goal, Carlton played a unique brand of effective football. Brisbane simply had no answer this week, but who knows, maybe we’ll see a rematch in September?
Recent form
Carlton
Carlton came in 9-10 at 11th on the ladder and in the hunt for a wildcard finals berth. Their Round 20 win over Gold Coast (110-97) was their second 100-point performance for 2026, and suggested a team finding late-season form under Josh Fraser. Nobody was expecting what followed, including the tipping competitions. If you won nearest to the margin this week, you’re either so far down in the comp that you’re desperate, you’re an absolute Carlton tragic, or you are from the future. There are no other possibilities.
Brisbane Lions
The reigning premiers entered Round 21 as fourth-placed, averaging just under 120 points per game across a seven-game winning streak, and looking like they’d hit their stride at just the right time. They had beaten Port Adelaide by 59 in Round 20 without getting out of second gear. In contrast to Carlton’s two 100-point games, the Lions had hit the century in 14 games in 2026. The markets had them as 5-6 goal favourites, and many thought that was unders.
But footy can be funny like that.
Ins and Outs
Carlton
In: Harry McKay
Out: Nic Newman (hamstring)
Milestones: Nick Haynes (250th game), Patrick Cripps (250th game)
McKay’s return from a meniscus injury was the headline selection news, and he delivered three goals to justify every optimistic word spoken at the selection table, but if I’m being honest, I thought he was still a little off his best, but in a game like this, drawing out the opposition defenders can (and did) have a huge impact, and he did spend soem time in defence too. Cripps and Haynes both reaching 250 games on the same night, in the same win, against the reigning premiers, is a bit of a fairytale situation, and shows how sometimes, these factors can really cause a team to lift for players they respect.
Brisbane Lions
In: Keidean Coleman, Oscar Allen, Bruce Reville
Out: Ty Gallop (suspension), Dayne Zorko (managed), James Tunstill (omitted)
Milestone: Noah Answerth (100th game)
Gallop sat out his suspension for the Georgiades incident that is still causing headlines. Zorko was managed with an eye on the finals, and Tunstill omitted. It seems like the selection table may have looked past the Blues and had their eyes on finals.
I’m a bit of a fan of Keidean Coleman, so when he went off with a possible injury in Q2 and did not return, I thought it might affect Brisbane’s ability to score. Ryan Lester went off in Q3. Hugh McCluggage came off in Q4 with a possible injury. Logan Morris also went late. By the end of the game, Brisbane had ten spare interchanges left, but no one healthy enough to use them effectively. The scoreline was bad, but if those injuries cause players to get sidelined, that’s a much worse outcome for a team going for a threepeat.
The Start
The first quarter was, on paper, fairly even. Carlton had six goals to the Lions’ five, but the Lions had ten scoring shots to Carlton’s nine. Brisbane were winning the ball in the middle, largely through Lachie Neale with three clearances and the Lions looked like they were just tuning up to hand Carlton an expected loss. Under the surface, Carlton were looking surprisingly up for the fight. McKay opened the scoring in his first game back from injury and Brisbane responded through McCluggage. The teams traded majors with Pittonet, Allen, Young and Lohmann going tit-for-tat until Bailey managed to give the first back-to-back goals and get their nose in front. Francis Evans and Sam Draper added one each, but then the script flew out the window through the efforts of Brodie Kemp.
Kemp set up camp at the top of the forward square approximately fifteen metres out, planted himself there, and yelled at his teammates to drop it on his head. He kicked two goals late in the opening quarter as he led well, marked cleanly, and kicked accurately. The classic high-posting forward work that has somehow fallen out of fashion lately as the game moved to contested crumbing and pack marks. Kemp made the case that the position is still very good if someone with the nous to use it correctly is in it. It’s worth noting that McKay played his part by leading away from the other tall to spread the defensive zone (another revolutionary old school tactic) so that the Brisbane opponents had to commit to one of them without covering both once the ball was kicked inside 50.
Carlton kicked with 78% efficiency to Brisbane’s 60%, against a competition average of 67%. The Lions were unusually scrappy kicking out of defence with star youngster Levi Ashcroft in particular having an out-of-character night in that zone, with turnovers that gave Carlton short-field opportunities they were only too happy to accept. Brisbane’s disposal style in defensive chains is usually a strength, but Carlton’s determination to run hard all night and apply relentless pressure with and without the ball shows how important an attacking, hungry mentality can be.
The Second Quarter
Kemp continued what he started at the top of the square and kicked his third and fourth goals in a row from the other end, which had the commentary team wondering if a boilover was on the cards, and the local Blues fans on their feet cheering.
Jagga Smith by this point had 13 disposals at 92% efficiency, four clearances, four score involvements, a goal and was reading the ball movement so well that he could have replaced the hawk-eye tech for cricket season. His composure under pressure only became more noticeable as the game wore on.
After Kemp’s bag, Cottrell and Hayward joined in with their goals, and seven of their nine goals had come from set shots. A brilliant turnaround in form for a team usually a bit inaccurate in that situation (looking at you, Harry McKay).
Carlton kicked nine goals for the quarter to Brisbane’s four. Ashcroft kicked two late goals to give Brisbane some faint shape to cling to, but they looked shell-shocked. They went into the long break looking confused while the Blues were enthused.
The second half
Second half fadeouts have been a huge criticism of Carlton in 2026. The Melbourne game being one of the worst in memory, but North, Collingwood and Adelaide all benefited from Carlton being unable to finish what they started. So it’s understandable how the fans wearing the navy blue were a little reluctant to get ahead of themselves, until Byrne kicked a major within the first minute of the second half, followed quickly by Ainsworth. Suddenly the margin was out to twenty points, and Carlton were playing with belief, inspired by Cripps and driven by Jagga Smith.
The crowd was in full voice and chanting until their throats were hoarse, and full of genuine belief. Not even a magic Charlie Cameron goal from the pocket could halt the momentum on the ground or in the stands, an unheard of level of confidence from both groups lately.
The only slight blemish for the night was in the third quarter, Smith had a clean shot at goal that was only going to just make the distance. Kemp attempted to mark, but could only get a finger to it, costing Jagga another piece to add to his highlight reel.
Kemp made up for it later though. In the fourth quarter, almost identically, the same situation presented itself with a Smith shot for goal, a defender moved to touch it, and this time Kemp physically shepherded the defender with his body and saw the ball through. It looked like a team genuinely playing for each other, and what’s more, it was good footy.
The finish
Brisbane’s pressure rating across the first three quarters sat at 158, then dropped to 150 by game’s end, a new season low. The competition average is 176. For a team whose entire identity is built on relentless physical pressure, a rating of 150 is ridiculously low.
Carlton kicked the last eight goals of the match to turn a boilover into a blowout. Five were from stoppages, and the closing quarter that became an exhibition of everything that had worked all night. McKay’s third came at the 27-minute mark. Kemp’s career-equal fifth arrived at four minutes from a mark inside 50 he held with one hand above the pack — his fourth mark inside 50 of the night. The final siren confirmed 154-78.
Just the third time Carlton have hit 150 in a decade: the last was against North Melbourne in 2025, and before that against the wooden spoon contender Eagles. This time, it came against the back-to-back premiers who had been averaging 120 points a game for seven weeks. Brisbane’s second-biggest loss in eight years.
Carlton’s ground-level work across the night was outstanding. Their below-the-knees ground ball gets, hard running, attacking play style and ruck work around the ground were consistently clean, and Wade Derksen’s game-high eight intercepts and five intercept marks from half-back was the defensive complement to what Smith and Cripps were doing going forward. Every Brisbane entry seemed to find either a Carlton body or a Carlton hand.
Controversial moment
Carlton Rising Star nominee Talor Byrne drew attention from the match review officer after a tackle. Byrne had been nominated for the Rising Star award following his three-goal game against Gold Coast in Round 20, and kicked two more in this one. The MRO will issue its finding this week on whatever the tackle produced. A generation ago that’d have been a good, hard tackle, but in the modern game the slinging motion is thoroughly discouraged.
A bit of a tongue-in-cheek moment was late in the game when Carlton already had 16 different goal scorers and were looking to set up Cripps for a major in his 250th. He managed to shark a ball and fire a long bomb at the line, only for Answerth to mark the ball and deny him by daring to do his job despite the margin. It would have been the cherry on top for a stalwart Carlton talent in his milestone game, but it’s hardly a blemish on the night.
The broader controversy was statistical: Brisbane’s ruck won the hitout count by 23, their hitout-to-advantage rate was solid, and they still lost the clearances, despite having a midfield full of stars.
Midfield matchup
Jagga Smith was the class of the field, and it got him the Robert Walls Medal. 29 disposals, two goals, 12 score involvements, two goal assists, six clearances, 96.6% disposal efficiency. He is twenty years old, i just his second season, and playing with the composure of someone who has been doing this for a decade. Carlton are going to be very difficult to contain through the midfield for the next eight years if this is his trajectory, and if they can find some other talented players to support him. He’s signed on until 2030, but based on this game, you may as well add ten years to that.
Patrick Cripps had eight clearances in his 250th game and led the stoppage work with the controlled authority that he can produce. George Hewett had 33 touches and eight clearances but barely received a mention, which is what happens to midfielders who do the unglamorous work in games with 76-point margins. Oliver Florent generated 485 metres gained from half-back. Carlton had contributors in every line.
Will Ashcroft’s 29 disposals were Brisbane’s best individual performance and were excellent in the context of the game. Lachie Neale was solid. The collective Brisbane midfield production was significantly below what it had been for the previous seven games, and Carlton’s pressure disrupted the Lions’ handball chains in the way that good defensive structures disrupt handball chains when the attacking team isn’t at their physical best.
Ruck Battle
Brisbane won the hitout count 47-24. Sam Draper had 30 hitouts to Marc Pittonet’s 24. Brisbane won the taps but Carlton led the clearance count 43-33 and the centre clearances 21-15.
In last week’s game against Port I noted that Sweet beat Draper in the tap department, but the class of Brisbane’s mids meant they could shark the ball at ground level and predict their opponent’s breakaway routes to intercept them and taek the ball away on their own.
This week flipped the script 180 degrees. Draper’s hitout advantage produced very little downstream, and Pittonet’s contribution around the ground had him linking through the forward half, providing the second-ruck option that kept Brisbane’s defenders occupied. It was the functional win even without the taps. Draper gave Brisbane first use plenty of times. It just wasn’t going to useful people at a useful rate.
I’m kind of torn here on who to give the nod to. Draper did his job in the middle, and usually that’s a weakness while his mobility and speed (for a big man) lets him get involved around the ground, but while Pittonet didn’t get a lot more of the ball, he got it in dangerous areas and with teammates running by him in waves.
If I have to pick, I’m giving it to Draper. Winning the taps is something they’ve needed from him, and he delivered here. It was his midfield that needed to lift.
The Stats that Sting
Carlton had 16 individual goal kickers. Against the reigning back-to-back premiers. In a game the Lions entered as heavy favourites. Sixteen. This is the number you get when every line is contributing, the ball is moving to the right people, and the opposition’s defence has run out of resources to plug the next available gap. Brisbane’s forward entries produced 11 goals from their 49 inside 50s. Carlton’s produced 24 from 62.
Carlton led for 108 minutes and 22 seconds. Brisbane led for 18 minutes and 48 seconds. They were favoured to win by nearly five goals.
Just the third time Carlton have kicked 150 in a decade. The previous two occasions were against North Melbourne in 2025 and the wooden-spooner Eagles before that. This time, against the team that won the flag twelve months ago and had won seven of their last eight going in.
Carlton’s 20 marks inside forward 50 was the highest any team had recorded against Brisbane since Round 9 of this season.
Brodie Kemp’s career-equal five goals came from a specific tactical decision: posting high at the top of the square, approximately 15 metres out, and using the marking position. Four of his five came in sequence from the end of Q1 through Q2. Classical forward positioning.
Fraser home and hosed?
Josh Fraser’s chances at taking on the Carlton job full-time next year had a huge bump tonight. Take all the pretty words and PowerPoint presentations you like, he just needs to load up the highlight footage of this game, and it’s a very big point to make.
The only real question is ‘does he want it’?
Based on this result, he’ll be coaching somewhere in 2027. If the Blues don’t have a contract in front of him come Monday, someone else will be on the phone by Wednesday.
Final thoughts
Carlton are 10-10 and genuinely alive in the wildcard race. They have three games remaining, and whatever argument existed yesterday about whether they belong in September has been replaced by a different argument.
Brisbane are still fourth. Their 14-7 record gives them 56 points and the top-two finish is still realistic — they need two wins from three to be competitive for second. The pressure rating of 150 and the 76-point loss are the same problem expressed differently, and the review this week will be direct. They have Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Collingwood to come, which is not a soft run home. But they are still a better team than Saturday suggested, and good teams usually demonstrate that the following week. Usually.
In the post-match Fagan was not sounding too optimistic about Lester’s shoulder or McCluggage’s calf. If those two players are out for any length of time, or worse, need to front up despite carrying a significant niggle, Brisbane’s flag defence will be in serious trouble.
Next up
Brisbane face Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Collingwood in their final three games. Hawthorn are third and will be a proper examination. Hawthorn is the key here. Great teams respond to losses by showing up next week and tearing it apart, but Hawthorn at their best will trouble anyone. This is the match that defines whether Brisbane can consolidate a top four spot, or whether they have to worry about Geelong, Adelaide and Melbourne winning against cellar-dwelling teams and dropping them into the wildcard zone.
Gold Coast are 14th and looking like they’re suffering from on- and off-field issues. Brisbane should be winning that one from the opening bounce.
Collingwood will be desperate to emulate Carlton’s performance to solidify their finals chances, which should be solid by then, assuming they give West Coast a hiding next week. Two from three should have Brisbane safely in finals. Three from three makes the top four safe. Losing two in a row would make for a very uncomfortable final week at the Gabba, and cost them momentum when they need it the most.
I think Brisbane is too good not to bounce back though, and while Hawthorn are dangerous anywhere, I just think that Brisbane at home with a point to prove is going to be a bit much for them. But then again, I thought the Lions would trounce Carlton, so there is a reason I don’t bet on games.
Carlton need to win all three of their remaining games against St Kilda, Bulldogs and Freo to seriously threaten a wildcard spot. The maths is tight but not impossible, and a team that just kicked 154 against the premiers has the right to believe the maths is manageable. Whether the Carlton that turned up against Brisbane shows up for all three remaining games is the question.
I think they’ll be riding high from this and likely take care of St Kilda. The Bulldogs is an interesting one, and with Freo already locking in the minor premiership with their win over the Bulldogs, the last round matchup with Carlton is one that they would rather lose with a clean injury sheet, than win with some bumps and bruises, so Carlton are in with a chance there.
Still, they’ll be feeling pretty good about themselves, and momentum matters. I think they make it to the wildcard.
