Using Cotality data, Canstar estimates a 14.5% peak-to-trough fall in Sydney would reduce the median house price by approximately $236,312 from its January 2026 peak, bringing it to just under $1.4 million.

Melbourne could see the median drop by $127,577 to $869,116, based on a projected peak-to-trough decline of 12.8%. ANZ also forecasts sizeable falls in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, with Canstar modelling median house price drops of between $50,000 and $100,000 in each of those cities.

Projected change to median house prices – ANZ forecast – peak to trough




City
Peak to trough
Price at peak
When
Price at trough
Change




Sydney
-14.5%
$1,629,736
Jan-26
$1,393,425
-$236,312


Melbourne
-12.8%
$996,693
Nov-25
$869,116
-$127,577


Brisbane
-7.9%
$1,217,859
Apr-26
$1,121,648
-$96,211


Adelaide
-9.8%
$1,012,623
May-26
$913,386
-$99,237


Perth
-5.2%
$1,077,250
May-26
$1,021,233
-$56,017

Source: Canstar.com.au, Cotality Home Value index, ANZ research released 11 August 2026. $ change for each capital is the predicted movement in the median house price in each capital if ANZ’s current forecast is realised. Assumes house prices change in line with dwelling forecasts.

A buyer who purchased the Sydney median-priced house at the January 2026 peak with a 5% deposit has already been affected by the 5.9% year-to-date price decline recorded by Cotality.

If ANZ’s full forecast is realised, that buyer could find themselves in negative equity by approximately 9% — owing an estimated $128,322 more than the property’s market value, even after 17 months of standard principal and interest repayments. A buyer with a 20% deposit would retain an estimated 8% equity under the same scenario.

The exposure is compounded by a surge in low-deposit lending. APRA statistics released in June show banks approved a record $10.2 billion in new owner-occupier loans with deposits of 5% or less in the six months to 31 March 2026 — a $3.5 billion, or 51%, increase on the prior period. The surge followed the removal of caps on the federal government’s Home Guarantee Scheme in October last year. Low-deposit loans represented 4.3% of all new owner-occupier mortgages in the period, the highest proportion on record.