Australia must “assume the worst” about an alarming spate of drone incursions last month, a top security specialist has warned.
Multiple unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) – also known as drones – were spotted flying in restricted airspace above the Australian Defence Force’s Williamtown RAAF base in Newcastle between July 11 and 13, according to reporting by The Daily Telegraph.
The ADF said it doesn’t know who was operating the drones, or why they were in a no-fly zone.
They were not shot down or jammed, but the incident was reported to NSW Police’s counter-drone unit.
At the time, the ADF told commanders to close window blinds to protect against the unwitting release of information.
The base is home to the country’s most advanced stealth combat aircraft, including the F-35A Joint Strike Fighters and the E-7A Wedgetail. The Daily Telegraph also reported 147 drones were recorded breaching restricted airspace surrounding Australia’s most significant military facilities during the 2024/25 financial year.
The Lowy Institute’s Dr James Paterson told news.com.au that while it was generally hard to know the intentions behind a drone incursion, it was “prudent” the ADF consider the worst-case scenario.
“Given that it was over a military site, and given the fact that we know Australia has been victim to foreign interference, I think it is prudent to assume the worst in all cases and assume that the drone incursion has nefarious intentions behind it,” he told news.com.au.
“Whether that is simply collecting evidence or collecting information, or perhaps even a more hostile or violent intention, we should assume the drone has a negative attention and that’s why it’s engaging in that drone incursion.”
Dr Paterson praised the ADF’s response, and said shooting down or jamming a drone’s signal came with risks.
“What if you jam a signal that is being used by a civilian aircraft, for example?” he said.
“In terms of a kinetic response, it’s actually quite hard to shoot down a drone, especially if they’re quite small and they’re fast moving. So, it does require quite a significant level of skill.
“But there’s also potential complications in terms of what if you shoot it down over critical infrastructure and it becomes collateral damage. And same thing if there’s civilian damage or if [it’s] around a built-up area.”
He said until recently, legislation also restricted how law enforcement responded to drone incursions.
‘The Grey Zone’
Dr Paterson said drones are light, accessible, cheap to build and really easy to use, making them a weapon of choice.
There’s also another, lesser-known advantage to using them.
“It’s very difficult to respond to,” Dr Paterson said.
“We have seen the use of drones to disrupt behaviour and fly over critical infrastructure, not only in terms of defence establishments, but over nuclear silos across the United States. In Europe, it’s used quite extensively in relation to disrupting airport activity.
“And most of [these incursions] do not have a hostile intention [behind them]. They’re not actually trying to conduct an attack against critical or civilian infrastructure. But, it nonetheless disrupts behaviour. And it disrupts behaviour in a really easy-to-use way.”
In December 2018, hundreds of flights were cancelled at Gatwick Airport near London after drones were spotted close to the busy runway.
The airport shut for 33 hours, affecting 140,000 passengers and costing airlines $95 billion, according to Dedrone. To this day, investigators still do not know who was behind the disturbance.
In 2020, Germany’s Frankfurt Airport, one of Europe’s busiest, shut for two hours after a drone was spotted nearby, according to Robin Radar Systems. Flight data suggested nearly half of all flights were cancelled, while over a quarter were delayed.
That same year, a Latvian rogue drone forced the closure of airspace around Riga Airport. A Latvian drone manufacturer had been flying an experimental military-grade aircraft when they lost control. The drone was filled with enough fuel to fly for nearly four days and went missing across skies in Latvia, according to Robin Radar Systems.
Drones were also involved in near misses with aircraft at Gatwick Airport and Manchester Airport in 2020.
Meanwhile, in November 2025, flights were paused at Zaventem Airport in Belgium after drones were reported nearby, according to the BBC.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are also increasingly being used by violent extremist groups to carry out attacks, according to Dr Paterson. They’re also being used extensively in Ukraine.
The security specialist said 3D printers had made it easier to modify drones cheaply and at speed.
“You can actually change the capabilities of a drone, making it fly for further distances, faster, and making it more immune to counter jamming techniques,” he said.
“You can also use 3D printed technology to modify a drone so it carries an explosive payload. We’ve seen these capabilities being used in the Ukrainian context, for example. Another really interesting development in the drone space … is the ability to integrate artificial intelligence and in some way to make it more effective at responding to jamming techniques.”
‘Should be concerned’
Mr Paterson said Australians should be concerned about the threat of drones, but downplayed the chances of their use in a mass terror attack.
“As a particular tactic, it needs to be thought about and needs to be countered. There are quite a lot of vulnerabilities that still remain …” he said.
“But I would not say that drones should be an overwhelming concern for the general population. This is something law enforcement needs to consider and the ADF needs to consider, because it has clearly been demonstrated by the drone incursion in Williamtown that it can be used and it can be used effectively.”
He also said it was unlikely AI drones would turn on humans.
“There is a potential possibility that AI might go rogue and you introduce AI into a drone technology that does something that’s unexpected. But as a potential Skynet, you know, AI engaging in these drone attacks against the individuals in society, that’s probably, in my head anyway, a worst-case scenario that is quite, quite unlikely.”
A Department of Defence spokesperson said it was aware of the Williamtown incident and employs “robust, layered security measures” at the site to protect people, establishments and capabilities.
They said for operational security reasons, Defence does not comment on specific arrangements or measures at its establishments.
In April, the government announced a $7 billion investment in counter-drone defence to be spent over the next decade.
The initial investments of $21.3 million in AIM Defence and $10.4 million in SYPAQ Systems has been awarded through the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator’s (ASCA) Mission Syracuse.
The Albanese Government has allocated up to $22 billion for drone, counter-drone and autonomous system technologies over the decade in the 2026 Integrated Investment Program.