The Victorian government has pleaded for a review into the federal tobacco excise following a “damning” survey that showed voters overwhelmingly blamed them for the violent illicit trade and rising crime.
In a shift to his predecessor’s position on the Albanese government’s tobacco policy, Premier Ben Carroll’s government has urged the commonwealth to review links between their excise strategy and the rise of illicit tobacco “and act on it”.
It comes after the nation’s peak convenience store body commissioned a Redbridge poll which showed almost half the voters believed the excise needed to be slashed.
The results delivered a fresh blow to the new premier ahead of the November state election, after he promised to crack down harder on crime and appointed a new police minister, Paul Edbrooke, who replaced Anthony Carbines after four years.
When presented with the results, a Victorian government spokesperson said they urged the commonwealth to do more.
“While this is a national issue, we’re taking strong action in Victoria through our inspectors seizing more than $9 million in illicit products and store closure powers,” the spokesperson told The Australian.
“We continue to urge the commonwealth to look at the rise of illicit tobacco and the link to the excise, and act on it.”
The polling of 2014 Victorians showed half of the voters blame the Victorian and Albanese Labor governments for the explosion in the black market.
More than three-quarters (76 per cent) believe excessive federal excise encourages consumers to look for illegal alternatives.
On fiscal policy, 49 per cent of respondents want tobacco taxes lowered.
Overall, 66 per cent of voters believe illegal tobacco has made Melbourne less safe, 49 per cent say it has degraded their local community, and 54 per cent believe the unregulated trade makes it easier for children to buy cigarettes.
In Victoria, legislation to close shops found to be selling illicit tobacco is still before the Parliament.
AACS CEO Theo Foukkare described the results as a damning verdict on federal tobacco policy and called on Mr Carroll to join his NSW and Tasmanian counterparts in pressuring the federal government to change course on tobacco excise.
“This is a wake-up call for the federal government. Melbourne voters now see high tobacco taxes as a driver of the black market, not a solution to it,” Mr Foukkare said.
“Melburnians understand what Canberra won’t admit: price people out of the legal market, and they will turn to criminals instead.
“Rather than reducing smoking rates, it’s handing billions to organised crime while legitimate retailers face firebombings and violence.
“AACS has been sounding the alarm for years. Now Melbourne voters are confirming what we’ve warned. This policy is failing consumers, failing businesses, and failing communities.
“[NSW] Premier Minns has shown leadership by acknowledging that current excise is driving illegal tobacco sales. Premier Carroll should now stand up for Victorian communities facing the same crisis. Melbourne voters have made their views clear. The Victorian government must add its voice and demand federal action.”
For the Jess Wilson-led state Liberal Party, the crisis offers a clear opening to reinforce the party’s traditional strength of law and order issues.
Voters view the Liberals as significantly better equipped than Labor to tackle crime, safeguard neighbourhoods, and combat black-market tobacco networks.
That perception spells serious trouble for Labor, as the public increasingly interprets the illicit trade through the lens of community safety – an area where the Liberals already command far greater voter trust, according to the survey.
Monash Liberal MP Mary Aldred, who is co-chair of the federal opposition’s Illegal Tobacco Taskforce, said the Victorian government’s backflip was a “deathbed conversion on the eve of the ballot”.
“It’s a desperate attempt to gloss over years of failure,” Ms Aldred told The Australian.
“Victorians deserved leadership when the first firebombings took place in 2023, not a craven attempt to save the furniture at the state election.”
Ms Aldred also said the Albanese government had become “more isolated” and claimed they had failed to “admit when they have got the policy settings wrong”.
“When even their state counterparts in NSW and now Victoria are advocating for a serious rethink on tobacco tax, it’s time to get real and stop pretending that more of the same is going to give us a different result,” she said.
Firebombings and arson attacks emerged as the single most concerning issue tested in the survey, which generated a net concern score of 71.
Organised crime groups making money from illegal tobacco followed closely behind with a net concern score of 61.
Both issues comfortably outpace concern about illegal tobacco sales themselves.
Voters also appear less concerned about the existence of illegal tobacco than they are about the consequences of the illegal tobacco trade. The strongest reactions are directed towards violence, organised crime and the broader impacts associated with the market rather than the products themselves.
The Victorian government was identified as the most responsible, by 26 per cent of concerned voters, closely followed by the federal government on 24 per cent. Together, state and federal governments account for half of all blame attributed for the growth of illegal tobacco.
Mohammad AlfaresJournalist