A key Aussie navy base is in the crosshairs of hostile foreign nations – and could even potentially become a nuclear target, an expert has warned.
From 2027, HMAS Stirling – off the coast of Perth – will welcome a rotation of US and UK submarines.
The Submarine Rotation Force West (SRF-West) will see at least one UK and up to four US conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines rotate through the base until 2032.
But there are fears allied nuclear-powered and armed subs could be based at HMAS Stirling well beyond 2032 – making it a legitimate nuclear target.
‘A warning signal’
Self-described “transparency warrior” and former federal South Australian Senator Rex Patrick said it was clear there is something more happening in WA than the government is letting on.
And Mr Patrick, a former Royal Australian Navy submariner, said this could make HMAS Stirling a prime target for Chinese or Russian nuclear missiles if war were to break out.
The base is located on Garden Island, off PErth’s southern suburbs.
He said there have already been articles in China calling on Australia to be used as a “warning signal” to the US.
“Rather than firing a nuclear weapon in a time of conflict at the United States, which could result in a cross exchange, firing a nuclear weapon at a third country like Australia doesn’t potentially cause that cross exchange, but could act as a signal to the United States to back off,” Mr Patrick said, adding Chinese intercontinental ballistic missiles can now reach Australian territory.
He said if this happened, “tens of thousands” of people would die in the immediate vicinity of the blast, while hundreds of thousands more would die from radiation poisoning over the coming days and months.
He added that Canberra was not prepared for such a scenario.
“I’ve actually done some inquiries into how Australia continues operations under extreme events like a nuclear attack, continuity of government. They’ve been relatively secretive about that, but we’ve seen in responses to things like bushfires right across eastern Australia where Australia has struggled and bushfires across Australia are far less consequential than something like a nuclear attack,” he said.
He called on Canberra to reveal more about what’s happening at HMAS Stirling.
“The Australian government needs to be engaging the Australian people. Rather than have us being the citizens and journalists scratching around for information, the government has a duty to explain exactly what’s going on. And unfortunately they haven’t been doing that,” he said.
The US Department of Defence has been approached for comment.
America’s huge Aussie move
Leland Bettis from the Pacific Centre for Island Security (PCIS), a research institute based in Guam, suggested the US navy had rapidly scaled up its infrastructure at Stirling and dramatically slashed funding for a naval base upgrade in Guam – moves he said signalled the US was quietly making the WA base its own.
“Funding was supposed to happen by the fiscal year of 2026, but when we look at the budget, the (US) Department of Defence looks like they’ve done a scaled back proposal and yet none of those funds passed. Almost $US1 billion ($1.41 billion) in proposed funding hadn’t passed in the 2026 fiscal US budget. Zero,” he told news.com.au.
He said HMAS Stirling was an ideal location for allied nuclear-powered submarines because it was outside the “weapons engagement zone” of a potential conflict between China and Taiwan.
It is also getting a floating dry dock capable of supporting US Virginia-class subs from the early 2030s.
The US navy has also built a Naval Support Activity that will provide support services and programs for US service members, civilian personnel, contractors and their families assigned to SRF-West – a development Mr Bettis said was “significant”.
“A Naval Support Activity is really just a shore-based US navy installation. Its main job is to manage a base and provide logistics, security, administration and all other kinds of services so the crew that’s at sea can focus on their mission … That’s effectively running a base operation.”
Mr Bettis also poured cold water on the claim HMAS Stirling was being used only for temporary US and UK rotations.
“One man’s rotation force is [another] man’s base,” he said.
“If you look at the decade of the marine rotation force in Darwin, I think you get a sense of where this heads.”
He said it’s likely US Virginia-class submarines will operate out of HMAS Stirling regularly in the future.
“They will continue to come in and out of Guam, as long as they can get munitions and things like that out of Guam, but you’re not going to put all your eggs into the Guam basket when it’s easy pickings in the event of a conflict.”
Scale down
US budget documents and a pre-scoping report seen by news.com.au shows the extent of the scale back at Guam Naval Base.
A 2023 pre-scoping report by the US’ Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command (NAVFAC) Pacific shows plans to build a new concrete single deck submarine repair pier that would provide berthing for four SSN-774 Virginia Class submarines and one submarine restocking vehicle, known as a tender.
The project, named P-676, was slated to cost between $US1-3 billion ($1.41-$4.45 billion) with funding beginning in the first quarter of the US 2026 financial year.
However, a 2026 budget report by the US Senate Committee on Armed Services showed not a single dollar was issued in funding for the project. By the 2027 budget review, the US Department of Defence (DOD) requested a scaled-down $US587 million ($830 million) to upgrade electrical capacity and other minor upgrades at its Guam naval base.
The 2027 budget has yet to be approved by the US House and Senate. Documents appear to show committees in both houses so far refusing a large chunk of the DoD’s funding request for upgrades to Polaris Point pier at the Guam base.
“My sense is members of Congress are not convinced putting these developments in Guam is really the best bang for the buck,” Mr Bettis said.
“Some of that has got to be related to the AUKUS discussions and the development at HMAS Stirling. Some of those developments fix into the notion of the Trump administration’s burden-sharing request and I think that does get some traction in Congress.”
Mr Patrick also claimed the number of US personnel being sent over would balloon from 1200 to 2300 by 2030.
The US navy separately revealed to The Australian that nearly double the number of Americans would be deployed to the WA facility than previously declared by Australia.
“This is not something that’s temporary in nature or small in nature. There’s a saying that if it looks like a duck and it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it’s a duck,” Mr Patrick told news.com.au.
“There is no doubt in my mind that this investment and the activity that’s taking place in Western Australia is not anything less than the basing of US submarines here in Australia.”
He also said a potential permanent presence of US nuclear-armed subs in Australian waters risked breaching the Treaty of Rarotonga. The treaty, signed by Canberra in 1985, prohibits the stationing of nuclear explosive devices in the South Pacific.
Mr Patrick said the US military will be placing tactical nuclear missiles on its fleet from 2032, including on Virginia-class submarines.
“I’m simply not comfortable that this is in our national interest. We should be looking, as others are doing, at having greater independence, being able to make sure we maintain a sovereign ability, an ability to make choices ourselves. Unfortunately we’re getting pulled closer and closer into the US forces in our region,” he said.
“That has to increase the potential that we get engaged in a conflict that we might not want to be engaged in and that we actually also get targeted.”
Peter Garrett, a former federal Labor minister-turned lead Commissioner of a crowd-funded public inquiry into AUKUS, said the revelation the US appears to regard the WA submarine base being built for AUKUS as a permanent home is a crucial distinction, and requires deeper interrogation.
“It also speaks to widespread community uncertainty about the entirety of the AUKUS pact, which we have been hearing right across the country,” he told news.com.au.
“Former Liberal defence minister and AUKUS true believer Linda Reynolds was clear in giving evidence at the Fremantle hearing that AUKUS would make Perth a more likely military target than it would otherwise be.
“The merits or otherwise of buying nuclear powered submarines at huge expense is our key focus, but it is becoming clear that the submarine purchase is not the only critically important matter being contemplated under AUKUS.”
The Australian Submarine Agency was contacted for comment. It previously told the ABC’s 7.30 that it expected US and UK navies would use Stirling post 2032.
It is understood US nuclear-submarines already routinely visit and carry out maintenance at the WA naval base.
Chilling China threat
According to the Pentagon, China’s estimated nuclear warhead count is in the low 600s as of 2024. It’s predicted that number will jump to more than 1000 by 2030.
Meanwhile, a 2024 US Department of Defence report on China’s military capabilities claims Beijing’s 12 nuclear-powered submarines are stocked with either JL-2 or JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Both are able to carry nuclear warheads.
According to the report, the JL-2 has a range of 7000km and a Chinese nuclear-sub carrying one would have to operate in the mid-Pacific Ocean to threaten targets in the western half of the continental United States, as well as Hawaii and Alaska.
The powerful missile can carry a single megaton-class warhead, enough to create an area of destruction some 900 square kilometres wide, according to some estimates, or it can carry three to eight smaller multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) warheads, which are capable of striking several targets at once using multiple warheads.
The JL-3, the People Liberation Army’s most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile, has a range of 10,000km, according to the US report. This means Chinese nuclear subs could strike mainland Australia and the US from just off its own coastline.
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