The by-election for the West Australian seat of Secret Harbour is still a week away, but One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen has seen enough in the five days since early voting opened to sense victory on the horizon.
So sure is he of winning a seat that has always been in Labor hands that he has already started talking to his business partner about the sale of Mr Herdegen’s share in the gyms he has owned since moving to WA a few years ago.
Asked on Friday about his campaign’s prospects, Mr Herdegen said he “absolutely” believed he was going to win next week.
“I’m starting to feel really confident,” he told The Australian.
Even if Prime Minister Anthony Albanese uses his visit to Perth this weekend to formally guarantee that WA will keep its controversial share of the GST – a promise that would cost the federal government an estimated $6bn a year, in what would surely be the single biggest by-election commitment in history – there is a growing sense on the ground in Secret Harbour that a One Nation triumph is almost certain.
While a by-election in a historically safe Labor seat in Perth’s southern suburbs would typically pass with little fanfare nationally, the Secret Harbour poll is different.
This is the first time Labor has had to go head to head with One Nation as its primary opponent since the Pauline Hanson-led party surged to prominence, and the result is poised to show Labor’s depth of resources alone is not always enough to counter that momentum. A Labor defeat here will leave party strategists in Victoria feeling even more concerned about their future.
For the Liberals, meanwhile, any pleasure in a Labor defeat will be tempered by bigger questions about what the party’s future path to government – and indeed, its future more broadly – looks like in a world where it is relegated to second fiddle to One Nation. A strong One Nation result will be particularly significant for federal Liberal MP – and vocal One Nation critic – Andrew Hastie, whose electorate of Canning overlaps with most of Secret Harbour.
The most striking sight at the early voting centre in Port Kennedy on Friday (apart from the One Nation-branded bus that has been parked outside from 5am each day) was the number of orange-shirted One Nation volunteers handing out how-to-vote cards.
Mr Herdegen says the increased visibility of the party in recent months has helped remove some of the stigma that once came from publicly associating with One Nation.
“Once people start to see that the movement is on, then it just encourages more people to get involved,” he said.
“There used to be a bit of hesitancy because they were vilified a little for doing that. But now, once people start to see the numbers, they see their friends, they see other people supporting the party, it gives them the confidence that they can do it too.”
If the voters who spoke to The Australian outside the Secret Harbour pre-poll centre on Friday are anything to go by, Mr Herdegen’s confidence is not misplaced.
More than half of those said they had voted for One Nation. For most of them, it was their first time voting for the party.
Neil told The Australian that after watching Senator Hanson for 30 years, he had finally decided to vote for One Nation because he was sick of Labor’s “lies”. He said the Labor governments at both state and federal level had let down too many Australians.
“We’ve got a lady living at our place, because she would’ve had to live in a car,” he said.
“We’re witnessing it, we’re struggling like everybody else living week to week. It’s just not easy and we’re probably better off than a lot of other people.”
Toby said he had voted One Nation after growing disillusioned with the Liberals in the years after John Howard.
He said federal Labor had failed to curb immigration, while Roger Cook had not done enough for the area since he became Premier.
“The stupid people that we’ve got at the moment don’t really care about other people, so why not give someone else a chance?” he said.
“They can’t be any worse.”
Suze said she, like her parents, had voted Labor her entire life but had only reluctantly voted for the party again this time around.
She said she had “plenty of concerns” with the performance of the state and federal governments but couldn’t bring herself to vote against Labor.
“I decided to stay with the devil we know,” she said.
Kiera and Kerry, meanwhile, both said they had voted for the Greens. The strong representation of One Nation outside the polling station came as a shock to them.
“I didn’t realise how much orange would be here, I didn’t realise how many people went for One Nation,” Kerry said.
By-elections are historically tricky for governments, especially those that have been in power as long as Labor has in WA. While there have been some early signs of the third-term blues creeping into Mr Cook’s government, it does not carry anywhere near the same level of baggage as its Victorian counterpart and still enjoys a broadly solid standing with the electorate.
On paper, Secret Harbour should barely be a contest. Labor holds the seat on a margin of 11.5 per cent, has the advantage of a well-oiled party machine that has been unstoppable in the west for a decade, and has comprehensively outspent and out-fundraised its rivals.
Labor has raised almost $1m in disclosable donations since the start of July. One Nation has declared just $48,000.
Labor, however, has struggled to convert that mismatch into momentum.
It’s a crude measure, but social media follower numbers point to a looming whitewash for One Nation.
Georgie Tree has 1900 followers on Facebook, less than half that of the 4500 following Mr Herdegen.
Even on Instagram, where the audience skews towards a younger demographic that would historically lean more towards Labor, Ms Tree has only 972 followers to Mr Herdegen’s 1898.
Labor has known from the outset this would be a tough campaign.
In many ways, one insider says, One Nation is perfectly built for by-elections. Not only is there little pressure on the party to outline detailed policy – Mr Herdegen’s most detailed policy commentaries have concerned immigration and bin collections, neither of which is state government responsibility – but people can show their grievance and vote for One Nation in Secret Harbour without the potential consequence of electing a One Nation government.
Ms Tree says the campaign has been a rollercoaster.
She has focused her campaign on trying to get face to face with as many voters as possible, and says future Labor candidates facing the challenge of One Nation needed to seek out that direct engagement with the community.
But she acknowledges her campaign has been caught up in a wave of right-wing populism that has been felt elsewhere around the world.
“It’s a global phenomenon and we’re not immune to that at all, but I’ve been trying to cut through that as much as possible by having conversations with people about what WA Labor is doing and what I can deliver as their local member,” she said.
While Ms Tree spent her entire childhood and most of her adult life living in and around the electorate, she has been hounded over the fact that her current home is more than 60km away in inner-city Perth.
Despite being the candidate who has faced the media more than any other, Labor’s decision not to let her speak at two press conferences mid-campaign – a move blamed on a tight schedule – took skin off her.
And her promises to deliver a train station and major hospital and freeway upgrades have also met with questions as to why Labor is committing to them only now after almost a decade in power.
“Any government-affiliated candidate in a by-election is going to cop some heat, that’s par for the course, and I think that in general the Labor Party are quite often held to a higher account,” she said.
“Minor parties haven’t had their time in the sun, really, to be able to deliver on what they promise or their lack of promises. That gives them a free hit in a lot of ways because they don’t have that accountability.”
Liberal candidate Ryan Robertson, meanwhile, says Labor should be feeling “very, very nervous” about the “tsunami of orange” he has seen in Secret Harbour during this campaign.
“There’s obviously a huge frustration nationally with the Labor government, but then that is also seeing an influence here at the state level. And when I’m speaking to people, what they’re saying is that for too long now, they feel like we are the forgotten cousin of Perth,” he said.
If indeed One Nation ends up winning Secret Harbour, it will be a result that will be heard not only in Perth but well beyond.
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Paul GarveySenior Reporter