Labor’s Special Envoy for Housing Josh Burns has failed to explain the government’s own forecast that its housing tax changes would increase rents by just $2 a week.
It comes after rents rose about $50 per week in the 12 months to June 2026, with the latest modelling suggesting potential rent rises up to 30 per cent.
Amid doubts about the government’s $2-per-week modelling, Mr Burns was asked how Treasury calculated the figure included in the May budget.
“I don’t have the full, I don’t have the full methodology of the Treasury modelling. We can get that for you if you like,” Mr Burns said.
Pressed on why he did not know the basis for the figure despite serving as Labor’s Special Envoy for Housing, Mr Burns said it was a question for Treasury.
“Well, yeah, that’s like… that’s a question we can get from the Treasury. It’s an answer we can get from the Treasury,” he said.
The exchange comes amid growing scrutiny of the modelling, after rental increases have already outpaced Treasury’s $2-a-week estimate.
PropTrack reported rents increased 3.1 per cent nationally over the three months to June 2026, equivalent to an increase of about $21 a week on typical asking rents.
Meanwhile, Ray White head of research Vanessa Rader has also warned that changes to negative gearing could require significant adjustments in the rental market.
Ray White’s latest modelling echoed earlier NAB modelling which suggested rents could rise as much as 30 per cent.
Ms Rader stressed the figure was not a forecast, and it could involve, for example, an 8 per cent fall in house prices combined with a 20 per cent rent increase.
“We understand that all markets operate very differently and it’s probably not just rents going up at that sort of number,” she told News24.
“It will be both a combination of rent increasing but also some of those (housing) values coming back.”
Housing Minister Clare O’Neil was asked about the Ray White modelling in parliamentary question time on Wednesday.
“Ray White is not forecasting a 30 per cent rise in rents… how incredibly embarrassing for the opposition,” Ms O’Neil said.
“When they came into the Parliament yesterday, they accused the National Australia Bank of saying the same thing.
“And then the National Australia Bank clarified this was not a forecast and it is important to note that they do not forecast rental yields.”
Ray White and NAB both modelled the market changes – which were not forecasts and do not have a timeline.
Ms Rader explained that the impact would vary significantly between markets, with Brisbane and Sydney likely to face a greater adjustment.
“Every market has a very different profile… something like Brisbane and Sydney, for example, will see a greater shift in either of those numbers,” she said.
“Either value or rents or a combination of both or one or the other, whereas somewhere like Melbourne where the yield is a little bit higher.”
The warning comes as investor activity shows signs of weakening following the government’s decision to restrict negative gearing on established properties.
Ms Rader said investor lending had fallen 8.6 per cent in the June quarter, although the May 12 budget had not yet been in effect for a full quarter.
The Albanese government’s policy allows existing investment properties to retain their previous negative gearing treatment under grandfathering arrangements.
However, negative gearing entitlements have been removed for existing properties since May 12, 2026.
Mr Albanese has pointed to an increase in investor borrowing for new housing as evidence the policy was achieving its intended effect.
Mr Albanese said there was a 27 per cent increase in investor loans for new builds and a 20 per cent increase in construction loans in the June quarter.
But Ms Rader said Ray White was not yet seeing clear evidence of a significant shift into new-build investment.
“We’ve only got the first quarter a lot of data through in terms of investment activity in terms of investor lending,” she said.
“We’ve seen that it’s gone down 8.6 per cent in this last June quarter. But don’t forget, the budget was the 12th of May. So, we haven’t got a full period of that yet.”