Just months out from the Victorian election, Premier Ben Carroll is heading for an unprecedented defeat in parliament, with a divisive government bill set to be voted down.

The Associations Incorporation Reform Amendment Bill 2026 has drawn widespread condemnation from across the political aisle, with key institutional figures also voicing their opposition to the Bill which they deem “undemocratic” and “divisive.”

Last week, the government publicly declared the intention of the Bill was to shut down the Red Union – a group of independent, patriotic unions which refuse to campaign for the Labor Party.

The Red Union stands for tens of thousands of frontline workers across the country – including nurses, teachers and police officers – and is constitutionally apolitical, meaning they prohibit themselves from donating to any political party.

The draft legislation is eerily similar to the Palaszczuk government’s 2022 assault on freedom of association, which forced independent worker associations to cease operations in Queensland.

This followed a mass exodus from Labor Party-aligned unions as they sided with the government and forced vaccine mandates onto workers.

Notably, the Victorian government’s recent move also implicates hard Left-wing unions like RAFFWU (Retail and Fast Food Workers Union), which refuse to affiliate with the Labor Party and are in direct competition with the SDA – Premier Carroll’s very own union.

Is it any wonder why this Bill has been thrust onto the parliament like a thief in the night?

But the backlash has been swift.

Already the Victorian Greens have announced they will oppose the Bill; a significant move given they possess four of the 20 Upper House votes needed to deny the government passage.

Further backroom discussions indicate the government has bitten off more than they can chew, with a handful of independent and minor party crossbench MPs also expressing their dissent.

That leaves the Coalition.

Led by Jess Wilson, the Liberals have made a point of encouraging competition and cracking down on union corruption following the bombshell Operation Richmond Report.

Given that Labor is explicitly targeting unions which don’t fund their campaigns, it’s a natural fit for the Opposition to vote it down as the election fast approaches.

But greater than that, there’s a fundamental principle at play here – one which is intrinsic to the Liberal Party’s DNA.

Sir Robert Menzies, Liberal Party Founder and a proud Victorian himself, would oppose this Bill in a heartbeat.

A staunch advocate for freedom of association, particularly in the face of the great industrial upheaval of his time, Menzies would not hesitate to stand with the working class if such an assault was launched upon them.

Our longest serving Prime Minister, in his own words:

“The essence of democracy is freedom…freedom of association is of the first order of importance in the world of liberty.”

Put simply: we are not living in a true democracy if governments can dictate such things to us.

That’s where we stand today. With an imperative question now before the political class, and our key institutions: do workers get a choice or not?

We know Labor shudders at this idea of competition in the union sector, because that would mean ending their monopoly on the working class.

But it’s intriguing to see just how far they will go to entrench their power.

In a significant development last week, the Australian Jewish Association announced its opposition to the Bill, labelling the government “reprehensible” for using the Jewish community “as a wedge to shut down their political competition.”

Now what’s that got to do with a bill about unions? Great question.

The government has deployed the age-old tactic of the omnibus bill – sewing together unrelated issues into one big bill in an attempt to wedge their Opposition.

In this case, they are lumping the nurses and teachers of the Red Union into the same category as neo-Nazis and terrorists.

This is all to turn to their Opposition and say: “Well if you vote against banning the Red Union, then you are also against banning hate groups from incorporating…do you support Neo-Nazis?”

It’s an insipid political strategy that makes a mockery of democracy. But on that component of the Bill, which the government claims will address anti-Semitism, the AJA have revealed the Jewish Community has not been consulted at all.

If those provisions were genuine, and not just a cynical political wedge, you’d expect the government to engage with some community groups on changes which purport to assist them.

Alas, Labor have signalled their intent: they want to stop workers from being able to choose their union, and are willing to get grubby trying.

All this from the party of the working class…

And now, the government faces an embarrassing defeat on the eve of the election.

If they prove to be so prideful to press ahead with this Bill, despite the lack of institutional and political support, then they’ll almost certainly be going against the wise heads of the Labor Party which are all saying one thing: withdraw it.

The Bill is set to be voted on in the Lower House this Wednesday, with an Upper House vote to follow.

Edward Schuller is the National Secretary of the Teachers’ Professional Association, one of the ‘Red Unions’ targeted by the Victorian government bill.