One Nation has scored a thumping win in the Farrer by-election, marking the first time the party has won a Lower House seat in federal parliament.
The ABC’s election analyst Casey Briggs called the seat for One Nation just after 8:00pm.
At that stage One Nation candidate David Farley had more than 40 per cent of the primary vote and was predicted to win the seat with a margin of about nine per cent after preferences.
He will become the first member for Farrer who does not represent either the Liberal Party or the National Party.
Mr Farley said he chose to join One Nation because it was “a political party of courage and tenacity”.
“I wanted to match that to what my skills were … in agriculture, agribusiness and community, and I could see the job that was required,” he said.
“So I look at it and I understand what is the job in Farrer, what’s got to be required and how to deliver it, and that message plus our policies has resonated very well right across the whole depth and breadth of Farrer.
“People just want change, it’s as simple as that.”
Mr Farley said his victory meant the party was now “at the end of its beginning”.
“We’re like a mason with a chisel and a hammer, and we’re re-carving the letters into the Australian democracy,” he said.
One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson addressed a jubilant victory party, telling supporters “we’re coming after those other seats”.
“We are here to represent you, the people, and to get our country back,” she said.
First federal win
One Nation had never won a seat in the federal House of Representatives, although Barnaby Joyce now flies its colours in the lower house after defecting from the Nationals.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson was elected in 1996 after being disendorsed by the Liberal Party for controversial remarks about Indigenous Australians, but that happened so late in the campaign that her name appeared on the ballot as a Liberal.
She subsequently lost her seat in 1998.
Voters in the Farrer by-election had the choice of 12 candidates. (ABC News: Callum Flinn)
A dozen candidates contested the seat, which was held by the Coalition since its creation in 1949 and by former Liberal Party leader Sussan Ley for the last quarter of a century.
In the 2025 federal election the Liberal Party secured more than 43 per cent of first-preference votes.
Independent Michelle Milthorpe secured 20 per cent, with Labor on 15 per cent and One Nation just shy of seven.
A year later the by-election has delivered a dramatically different result.
The four-cornered contest saw both Coalition parties relegated to the status of also-rans.
With about 45 per cent of the vote counted, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski had 11.47 per cent of the vote and the Nationals Brad Robertson 9.59 per cent.
Their decision to preference One Nation ahead of the independent Ms Milthorpe has made her task vastly more difficult.
Ms Milthorpe has attracted about 25 per cent of the primary vote, but if Coalition voters follow their candidates’ how-to-vote cards she will not be receiving their preferences.
Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski contested the Farrer by-election for the Liberals. (ABC News: Greg Ryan)
The deputy leader of the Liberals, Jane Hume, would not be drawn on whether it was the correct decision.
“I’m not going to speculate on preferences, that really is a decision for the party organisation, not for the candidates and not for the politicians themselves,” she said.
But Liberals leader Angus Taylor told the ABC it was the right move.
“I am very confident that’s what out voters in this electorate wanted us to do,and it’s what we did,” he said.
Mr Taylor told party supporters the by-election was “always going to be a mountain to climb”.
“We have to take away some hard lessons from this,” he said.
“For too long we have been a party of convenience, not of conviction and that must change.”
Mr Taylor said the party needed to “take our medicine and be honest with the Australian people”.
“Mass migration has not worked for this country, 1.4 million people in three and a half years, it has not worked for this country,” he said.
“Standards have been too low, and the numbers have been too high.”
The Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie told the ABC she would be open to the prospect of forming a minority government with One Nation in the future.
“I’d be willing to work with anyone that wants to see Anthonty Albanese leave the lodge,” she said.
“I don’t care what colour you are, I’m interested in delivering results and building a prosperous and healthy country.”
Nationals leader Matt Canavan described the by-election as “a bit of a reintroduction for us for the people of Albury and southern NSW”.
“But we are not going anywhere. We are here for the long haul,” he said.
“I do recognise the fact that people have been disillusioned with politics and the political class, and we’ve been part of that and got to take our licks.”
Nationals leader Matt Canavan became a familiar face in the electorate of Farrer during the lead up to the by-election. (ABC News: Philippe Perez)
Former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, whose resignation sparked the by-election, released a statement statement expressing “immense disappointment about this loss”.
“The seat of Farrer was created in 1949. Until tonight, at every one of the 30 elections since, through different and challenging circumstances, it has been held without exception by the Liberal and National parties,” she said.
“It would be an error to reduce both the scale and significance of tonight’s defeat to a Coalition split which occurred months ago, or to misattribute it to the date the vote was held.
“I urge the Liberal leadership to accept this result with humility because the voters never get it wrong.”
Ms Ley said on the day the leadership spilled in February, the new leader said the Liberal Party needed to “change or die”.
“Three months later, the result in Farrer demonstrates that statement to be far truer today than it ever was then,” she said.
Sussan ley’s resignation sparked the Farrer by-election. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore)
Polling day had its share of controversy with the Federal Court issuing an injunction ordering the removal of signage claiming to be authorised by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).
The posters were spotted on a fence at the Orana Community Centre at Springdale Heights, north of Albury.
They depicted an AEC transparency register of political donations to independent candidate Ms Milthorpe who has been under fire from her opponents over contributions to her campaign from Climate 200.
In a statement the AEC said the signs had the potential to misrepresent the source of the corflute.
“While it includes information from the AEC’s transparency register, the AEC did not erect or authorise the signage,” it said.
It did not disclose who was responsible.
The Federal Court has granted an injunction for the unauthorised sign to be removed. (Supplied: Australian Electoral Commission)
Conservative voters were spoilt for choice when it came to choosing a candidate, but all four aspiring MPs expressed similar views on what emerged as the key issue: water.
All went on the record as being opposed to further water buybacks in the Murray-Darling Basin and supporting further investigation of the basin’s management.
The electorate of Farrer covers 126,563 square kilometres, or nearly 16 per cent of New South Wales. (Supplied: Sussan Ley)
They also voiced support for more scrutiny and decreasing immigrant numbers — although this was a more delicate issue in an electorate with strong multicultural communities and local industries that rely on migrant workers.
Mr Farley will now have to find a way to work with the Albanese government if he is to deliver on the pledges made during the campaign.