It was the 16th of February, 1983.
A day that Australians will never forget.
Bushfires ripped across South Australia and Victoria, killing 75 people and destroying nearly 2500 homes. High temperatures, intense winds and low summer rainfall lead to an increased fire danger, and were factors behind the sheer devastation of Ash Wednesday.
Most deaths occurred in the hour after a cool change that swept through, when strong, gusty westerly winds turned long, narrow corridors of flame into wide fronts.
Now, more than 40 years later, a detail in a weather map has Australians on edge.
Because the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – which tracks atmospheric changes across the Pacific Ocean – has dropped to -29.1. That’s the lowest reading since Ash Wednesday.
University of Tasmania fire scientist Professor David Bowman said the situation is variable and concerning.
“The relationship between the El Nino phenomenon (which the SOI is an measure) and bushfires is imperfect and varies according to where you are in Australia (biggest effect on east coast) and other climate modes that affect seasonal weather patterns like the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode,” Mr Bowman told news.com.au.
“But the development of a super El Nino when the planetary air and ocean temperatures and ocean are historically extreme is a very big warning. Most fire managers and fire scientists are concerned.”
He explained that the fire season that’s looming for Australia is unique, and of particular concern is the dense vegetation around the nation.
“The coming fire season has no simple historical parallels with 2009 and 2019-2020.
“Drought is less of a factor in areas most likely affected by El Nino this season, but the dense fuels that have grown up because of years of rain have made a very big fire hazard. If these fuels dry out and burn under catastrophic weather conditions we will see extremely dangerous fire behaviours.
“However, some areas like eastern Tassie can be plunged into drought because the rainfall has been essentially cosmetic, the subsoil is dry.”
Mr Bowman said his utmost concern are “flash droughts” due to heatwaves.
“Nothing is certain about the bushfire season ahead. But it would be reckless to assume the fire season will not be bad given all the other extreme fires globally in the last few years. My biggest fear are ‘flash droughts’ associated with baking heatwaves which can take landscapes from zero to 100 in days.
“So, in a nutshell climate change and super El Nino that are an expression of these profound planetary changes that are making bushfires more dangerous and harder to predict. North America and European summers have highlight how extreme bushfires are becoming.”
Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services has released its seasonal outline, where it has warned that below average rainfall has increased bushfire risk potential across northeast and eastern Tasmania, as well as parts of Victoria.
It also notes that above average fuel loads and dry soil conditions are contributing to elevated fire risk across parts of Western Australia.
AFAC CEO Rob Webb said: “This outlook highlights a heightened risk of fire across several parts of the country, driven by a combination of dry conditions in the east and increased fuel loads through parts of central and northern Australia.
“The variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities to understand their local conditions and prepare early.
“While some areas are facing an elevated risk of fire this spring, bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook. Communities are encouraged to stay informed, monitor local conditions and follow advice from their fire and emergency services as the season unfolds.”
Fire risk by state
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the long-range forecast is showing that temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia. While rainfall is predicted to be above average across much of the western half of the country, it is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia.
Temperatures this spring are expected to be above average across most of the nation and the warmer forecast increases the risk of early-season heat, particularly across southern Australia.
What’s in store for each state:
• Victoria: Increased risk of fire this season in East Gippsland, the far southwest, the Surf Coast, and the area west of Geelong to the southern Wombat Forest.
• Queensland: Increased fire risk this season in parts of the southeastern interior.
• New South Wales: Increased risk of fire this season in parts of northern and southeastern New South Wales following recent dry conditions.
• Western Australia: Below average rainfall and warmer conditions may further increase fire risk in the southwest.
• South Australia: Increased risk of fire this season in the state’s upper northwest, where recent rainfall has added to the fuel load.
• Tasmania: Increased risk of fire this season in northeastern Tasmania, including the Furneaux Group and the East Coast.
• Northern Territory: Increased risk of fire this season across most of the Territory’s central and southern areas.
Read related topics:Weather