Treating the 2026 model of One Nation like previous versions when the party enjoyed localised spikes in state elections is a recipe for disaster for Labor and the Coalition.
Attacks launched by Albanese and Jim Chalmers against One Nation in Hanson’s home state of Queensland on Sunday were characterised by the wily 72-year-old political veteran as “desperate” words that could potentially incite political violence.
Hanson, who relishes in her underdog persona, uses major party hits on One Nation to tell grumpy voters that Labor and the Coalition “are out of ideas, resorting to name-calling and losing focus on their constituents”.
The more electoral success Hanson enjoys in upcoming state and federal elections, the more diplomats, business leaders and powerbrokers will want access to One Nation’s spiritual leader. In a recent swipe at Hanson, without naming her, Albanese suggested that some politicians might not be able to deal with Asian leaders as he had during the fuel crisis.
The Australian understands senior diplomats from across the globe, including Indo-Pacific nations, have met, held talks or are seeking meetings with Hanson. Transactional Asian leaders want long-term access to Australia’s abundant resources.
Hanson’s positions on gas and coal will be music to their ears, given the anxieties caused by Labor’s climate change and renewables agenda.
While elites put their heads in the sand and refuse to believe One Nation will maintain its position in the polls, the diplomatic corps is collecting as much as intel as they can. It isn’t just ambassadors seeking meetings with Hanson. Chief executives and prominent professionals, beyond billionaire Gina Rinehart who the Left is obsessed with, are courting the Queenslander.
One Nation, which has made hay of Labor’s struggles to fix the migration system and cost-of-living and housing crises, is preparing for all scenarios, including Albanese calling an early election from August next year. While Albanese’s first choice is to run full-term to May 2028, One Nation campaign boss James Ashby doesn’t want to be caught on the hop.
Labor and Coalition figures are confident One Nation’s candidate vetting will not hold up, infighting will breakout and defections will emerge. But the difference from previous years is that One Nation’s membership base has never been bigger, its donor pool has never been greater and its recruitment of professionals is expected to deliver high-profile candidate surprises across the country.
Of course, there will be plenty of unwinnable seats where One Nation will likely end up with candidates whose backgrounds and social media history will be targeted by the major parties.
As One Nation prepares for the Victoria, NSW and federal elections, time will tell whether Farrer MP David Farley or others seek to undermine One Nation. Based on current polling trends, some Labor, Liberals and Nationals MPs and senators face credible threats from One Nation candidates. ALP figures who underestimate the risk of One Nation in outer-suburban and regional seats have rocks in their heads.
A senior Coalition source was right when he told The Australian that the Liberals and Nationals can’t adopt a “hope they implode strategy” and pointed out that One Nation will always have to manage internal fights “given the big egos in the room”. “Structurally, it’s autocratic governance and it sort of has to be because of the people that they pick up,” a Liberal source said.
“We all know them. But they’ve never made it for one reason or another. Farley is a classic example of that. He’s quite talented in some ways but he’s an egomaniac. Very opportunistic and there’s a lot of them.”
A prominent Labor figure, who said the more seats One Nation wins the “more they become part of the system”, warned Nationals seats in regional Queensland and NSW were extremely vulnerable.
They believe having high-profile local MPs and candidates, like Dan Repacholi in the Hunter and frontbencher Kristy McBain in the NSW seat of Eden-Monaro will help hold off a One Nation wave.